Twenty Years On...

[Wraith]

In this case, I think it may have been less risky to send in forces under fighting strength. The idea is not to fight a war, so I think it might be better and more palatable to those who need to agree to it to avoid sending in enough forces to pose a credible threat. Their job would be to communicate our willingness to defend the country. But I was primarily thinking of logistical problems at the time I wrote the paragraph you're responding to - I'm not sure the timelines were generous enough to move in the forces needed to garrison the country, and I don't believe it was needed anyways. I do agree that we shouldn't be bluffing; the damage from getting a bluff called is too high, so we can't afford to bluff. In this hypothetical, now obsolete and infeasible plan, it'd be made clear that if the fighting starts, positions would be reinforced to fight alongside the Ukrainian forces if their positions are threatened, not abandoned.

Ultimately I don't think western nations were really willing to stick their necks out for Ukraine, and that's why Kiev is getting bombed right now.

[Being]

This won't help Ukrainians feel any safer...

https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/24/2...ation-invasion

At least the two cosmonauts are outnumbered...

[Aimless]

Apparently CNN is now reporting that Belarusian troops have joined the Russian invasion forces. Fucking hell.

[Steely Glint]

I read that there was fighting in Pripyat and Chernobyl, and that Russia now controls the reactor. Unclear why they would do this, maybe searching for artefacts?

[LittleFuzzy]

Military/security aspects of Russia policy in the region has traditionally been the purview of NATO. The EU is designed to facilitate economic, social, and political integration—which it has continued to do, and which represents a major concern for Putin's regime. The 21 NATO member states in the EU already have a forum (NATO) for addressing the threat posed by Russia

The threat posed to them individually. Not the threat posed by Russia in general, as shown by Georgia, and the Crimea, and the eastern Ukrainian border unrest, and now the general Ukrainian invasion. The Ukraine is not and never has been a partner like that and to the extent NATO has served as a general shield against large-scale aggression historically, it's been primarily a matter of providing multilateral cover to one specific actor within NATO, one whose preeminent status mostly undermined the European aspiration to not be relegated to the kiddie table.

—they should prioritize that forum for that issue instead of wasting energy on trying to make the EU fulfill functions it isn't suited to fulfill.

So. . . the EU's function is to enrich itself at the rest of the world's expense as a trade and economic bloc and the devil take any other issue? It would seem to me that combining and integrating their economic and political response (if not social) in foreign policy and security to effectively respond to and deter aggression from threatening states in the region (or even across the globe) would be part of what it means to be the sort of integrating/integrated power bloc the EU purports to be.

If NATO isn't able to effectively respond when an important partner is undermined for years, invaded, annexed, and then invaded again, when will it be?

If Europe could step up when the US has already exhausted itself, wisely or unwisely, then NATO could effectively respond through them. Is/should NATO only be capable of anything when the US is the one providing the muscle for it? That would seem to kinda prove the complaints US conservatives have been making about NATO for the last 20 years.

[LittleFuzzy]

In this case, I think it may have been less risky to send in forces under fighting strength. The idea is not to fight a war,

Every military advisor is going to tell you that if the idea is to not have things blow up into a war, then you don't lay a fuse in front of someone holding a lit flame.

[rille]

Ha! So I tried to look up my old ukranians programmers just to realise they had deleted me on fb.

[EyeKhan]

I disagree. We guaranteed their security and independence, and after all of Trump's fuckery with them, we need to do this to ensure that our guarantees and treaties mean anything. We'll lose a lot more than Ukraine if we don't do whatever we can to keep our word and put a stop to Russian imperialism. Insert Taiwan mention here. Russia will not go to war with NATO, Putin will only take what he thinks he can get without a war with NATO. He's just trying to get us to back away while he advances, and all we have to do is not back away to stop him.

Have you been listening to that pinko soviet sympathizer Tucker Carlson?

Wait, by "we need to do this" do you mean go to war with Russia? We need to do that, to save Ukraine from Russia, or all the European dominos will fall to the Russian onslaught? Sure, maybe Russia wouldn't use nuclear weapons. But they might. They would likely do some kind of massive cyber assault, which would be super inconvenient.

But I hear you saying its worth risking the death of everyone to stop Russia from conquering Ukraine. For that matter, same with Taiwan. It is worth it to you if everyone in the world died to make sure Taiwan and Ukraine don't become commies/ oppressed slaves, etc? Okay, maybe Putin is bluffing. Probably he is bluffing. But what if he's not? Or maybe he is, but then Russia starts to lose and they freak out in desperation and nuke a city or two. And then dominos fall, and everyone dies. The stakes of this game don't go higher. What would be better -- all of Europe bows down to resurgent Russia and all of Asia bows down to resurgent China, or everyone in the world dies. Those are the two worst case scenarios, no?

[Loki]

Apparently CNN is now reporting that Belarusian troops have joined the Russian invasion forces. Fucking hell.

There's only one incident where that happened. There was likely significant Russian pressure involved. Belarus is allowing its territory to be used for the invasion though.

[Being]

Don't like the rhetoric our President is directing at the "Russian People". He said "now Putin and the Russian people will suffer".

edit: That's like punishing American people for Trump.

[Ominous Gamer]

Don't like the rhetoric our President is directing at the "Russian People". He said "now Putin and the Russian people will suffer".

edit: That's like punishing American people for Trump.

That's the point.

[Being]

That's the point.

Rather masochistic to think you should be punished for a majority of your countrymen being fooled by the lies of a politician...

[Aimless]

Extremely disappointing if true:



Several sources reporting that an official threat has been made to Finland and Sweden, in response to escalating support for Ukraine and for NATO partners . Makes sense to make empty threats now, in the hope of discouraging them from trying to join NATO while Russia is otherwise occupied. I don't think Swedish politics and law are really set up to enable an expedited NATO application during this comparatively safe period—would rather expect it to be a campaign issue for the election, by which time the appetite for alliance may well have diminished to the point where the membership pitch won't gain sufficient traction (also a tricky issue because right-wing parties are traditionally more interested in joining NATO, but have chosen to ally themselves with a bunch of far right fifth column stooges that constitute a major security risk). But it may well have a greater impact on the Finnish NATO discourse, which may, in turn, feed into the Swedish debate.

Think it must be pretty demoralizing for Russian troops to have been denied the easy victory they were no doubt expecting. Kyiv on the way to being encircled, but, even then, they're not likely to have an easy day of it. Terrible news of families being separated because of conscription. First waves of refugees have made to a variety of safe locations, including southern Sweden. Our govt. refuses to fully commit, having been cowed by the generally xenophobic public discourse of the past decade—and enticed by the xenophobic social democracy of our neighbours in the south.

Some sources reporting Germany may have come around on the issue of expulsion from SWIFT. Extremely unnecessary own-goal, but good if it's true. No news on more substantial energy-related measures—those will hurt everyone involved, and who knows how much time it will take to convince leaders it's doable. Symbolically good that Putin and Lavrov have been added to the sanctions list, even though it's unlikely to have any real impact (on Putin at least).

In Russia, thousands of people have protested the war, in dozens of cities—with many ofc being arrested or at least assaulted. A number of Russian celebs—athletes, socialites, etc—have spoken out against Putin and his war. Some of the open criticism has come from children of people close to Putin. No regime-friendly counter-protests either, for most of the day.

No idea what to think about Russian forces taking Chernobyl.

[Being]

Can someone verify this translation??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L17Bi7zBJHI

[BalticSailor]

Can someone verify this translation??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L17Bi7zBJHI

Accurate enough.

EDIT (unrelated to the video):

The events in these last couple of days in general have been quite shocking, obviously, but what surprised me most from the local affairs was the near-perfect switch of our most widely known anti-vaxx and anti-c19-restriction figureheads to defending the Russian actions. I mean, I did expect some overlap between both groups, but at this point, if I were to picture the relevant people in a Venn diagram, it would be a fucking circle.

[EyeKhan]

Accurate enough.

EDIT (unrelated to the video):

The events in these last couple of days in general have been quite shocking, obviously, but what surprised me most from the local affairs was the near-perfect switch of our most widely known anti-vaxx and anti-c19-restriction figureheads to defending the Russian actions. I mean, I did expect some overlap between both groups, but at this point, if I were to picture the relevant people in a Venn diagram, it would be a fucking circle.

One thing in common - Russian mis-information machine. Terribly effective. Scary effective. And nobody has a good way to counter it.

[BalticSailor]

One thing in common - Russian mis-information machine. Terribly effective. Scary effective. And nobody has a good way to counter it.

Well, another thing that's in common could be called "natural immunity". Takes a lot of exposure to set in, and you will probably not like the death toll in the end, but eventually, a significant fraction of the population does become immune.

[LittleFuzzy]

Don't like the rhetoric our President is directing at the "Russian People". He said "now Putin and the Russian people will suffer".

edit: That's like punishing American people for Trump.

It's kinda an inevitable byproduct of war, Being. . .

But you're right. Only the Ukrainians should be suffer and be punished for Putin. Will you show us on the doll just where the Ukrainian people touched you, Being?

[Being]

It's kinda an inevitable byproduct of war, Being. . .

But you're right. Only the Ukrainians should be suffer and be punished for Putin. Will you show us on the doll just where the Ukrainian people touched you, Being?

All those years in the hellish heat of Raisin'ville has really addled your thought process...

[Aimless]

Does anyone have any update on/insights into the road to asset seizures? Can see how money can be difficult to seize in many cases, but what are the obstacles to seizing assets such as buildings, yachts, football teams, etc—and how will those obstacles be cleared?

[Aimless]

French special forces deployed to French Embassy in Kyiv, apparently there's also been an official statement (frm minister of foreign affairs) that France is ready to ensure Zelenskyy's safety. Important assurance given obv threat to Zelenskyy's life but also an opportunity for someone to trigger a massive clusterfuck.

[Steely Glint]

Sanctions aren't going to do shit until they start effecting the wider Russian economy. You can't just freeze Putin's hypothetical assets in Europe, fuckers fixed on making an empire.

[Aimless]

Sanctions aren't going to do shit until they start effecting the wider Russian economy. You can't just freeze Putin's hypothetical assets in Europe, fuckers fixed on making an empire.

I'm not sure whom you're addressing but I'm pretty sure that's not an answer to either of my questions.

[Steely Glint]

Just a general comment, not addressed at you.

[Aimless]

Russia vetoes UNSC resolution condemning the invasion. Importantly (??) China abstained. Sadly, so did India.

Some sources report Russia has deployed cluster munitions. Others expecting thermobaric bombs to be used against civilian targets in Kyiv soon.

Just a general comment, not addressed at you.

[LittleFuzzy]

Russia vetoes UNSC resolution condemning the invasion. Importantly (??) China abstained.

Not really. China isn't going to support that kind of resolution for obvious reasons but since Russia is going to veto it they don't need to vote against it and really they're not any more fond of Russia being grabby and aggressive then the rest of us are. They share an actual border with Russia themselves, remember. Russian resurgence is an implicit threat to China.

[Loki]

China has gone out of their way to support Russia this time: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/u...a-ukraine.html

[Being]

China has gone out of their way to support Russia this time: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/u...a-ukraine.html

In exchange for help with Taiwan?? Weakening the effects of economic sanctions? I mean the world cannot sanction them both to the hilt and expect there to still be an economy on Earth. Right?


edit: We need to expedite chip factory construction on a very large scale very quickly. I may need to come out of retirement...

edit2: I believe most wafer manufacturing has moved offshore too. Maybe still some up in Washington but not enough.

edit3: Hadn't given this much thought until now, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/21/foxc...-by-trump.html

[Loki]

They probably figure most of the world hates them, so might as well form tighter links with those who don't.

[Steely Glint]

This isn't going like the Russians expected at all.