Twenty Years On...

[Being]

I hope we don't forget our past mistakes. Particularly the one where we listened to politicians making up stories of how some small irrelevant country was building the ability to destroy the world. Our acceptance of this over the top pretense produced the destabilization of a vast swath of our world that still exist today, almost twenty years on.

https://www.cnn.com/2003/US/01/10/wbr.smoking.gun/

Why is Ukraine so important that the USA is once again beating the "mushroom cloud" drum?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/22/polit...ers/index.html

Invasion will hurt the US and Europe. Everyday Americans would feel the effects of an invasion in their bank accounts.
Gas prices could soar, writes CNN's Matt Egan. "It's impossible to say how high prices would go — and how long they would stay high. But $100 oil would surely lift prices at the pump. And that means a Russia-Ukraine conflict has the potential to impact most Americans."

The status of Western democracies. There is something more than the economy, however. Biden has built his presidency around the idea that democratic countries must stand up to autocratic regimes.
As CNN's Stephen Collinson smartly writes, Putin "is using Ukraine as a hostage to try to force the US to renegotiate the settled outcome of the Cold War."

Collinson also explains why Americans more concerned about the economy and the coronavirus pandemic should care about this "most tense test of wills since the fall of the Soviet Union."
Nothing less than "the biggest clash of regular conventional armies in Europe since World War II" is at stake.

Remember, it's not really about world stability.

[Aimless]

Nobody knows for sure exactly what Vladimir Putin is doing with around 100,000 Russian troops parked near the Russia-Ukraine border, but it's making the US and Europe extremely nervous.

President Joe Biden said this week he expected the Russians would "move in" and that a slight incursion would be met differently than a full-on invasion.
The US has spent the past few days cleaning up that remark and making clear any type of invasion is unacceptable.

Asked in Geneva by a reporter if he thought, like Biden, that an invasion was likely, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used some interesting language.

[...] After meeting with Lavrov in Geneva, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated there would be steep consequences for an invasion...

[...] Panetta said it's not a foregone conclusion that Russia invades Ukraine...

US political discourse wrt Ukraine is just so confused. Russia has already invaded Ukraine. The world has already led that happen, and that failure has set the stage for the present threat.

[Ominous Gamer]

I wouldn't be surprised it Ukraine and Taiwan both fall shortly after the Olympics

[Wraith]

US political discourse wrt Ukraine is just so confused. Russia has already invaded Ukraine. The world has already led that happen, and that failure has set the stage for the present threat.

The world failed in Georgia before that, but better late than never. Appeasement never works. If you give Putin his lebensraum, he's just going to demand more, just like his type always do and as he is currently demonstrating.

[Being]

Georgia self-destructed in 1993. Correct me if you believe I am wrong but Georgia is just another splintered country, one that the USA has no ability to stabilize. Just like Ukraine, any efforts by the USA to stabilize the area will only serve to further destabilize the region. Using our military to maintain one regional government over the others is not democracy.

[Aimless]

The world failed in Georgia before that, but better late than never. Appeasement never works. If you give Putin his lebensraum, he's just going to demand more, just like his type always do and as he is currently demonstrating.

That's kinda what I'm getting at. Western discourse re. Russia has a tendency to frame everything Putin does as a possible threat that may or may not have to be stopped, even when it's basically already a fait accompli. It's a way to reduce the pressure to act, by distracting media & the public. Regardless of how one feels about the US, about NATO, about warmongers, etc, we shouldn't encourage leaders to play this silly game of make believe.

[Wraith]

That's kinda what I'm getting at. Western discourse re. Russia has a tendency to frame everything Putin does as a possible threat that may or may not have to be stopped, even when it's basically already a fait accompli. It's a way to reduce the pressure to act, by distracting media & the public. Regardless of how one feels about the US, about NATO, about warmongers, etc, we shouldn't encourage leaders to play this silly game of make believe.

I'm not sure I understand what you're trying to say. What is your preferred course of action?

[Being]

Here is an article with sections titled "What Russians want from Ukraine:" and "What Ukrainians want from Russia:".

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...uvt?li=BBnb7Kz

My reading comprehension skills have noticeably declined with age. Would someone please read this article and convey to me the answers it proposes to provide? If you, like me, cannot find the answers promised to be revealed by this article can you point to an article that does actually address these questions?

[Aimless]

Twitter Link

Twitter Link

Lavrov is a shithead but oof. This meeting was ill-advised.

[GGT]

Here is an article with sections titled "What Russians want from Ukraine:" and "What Ukrainians want from Russia:".

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...uvt?li=BBnb7Kz

My reading comprehension skills have noticeably declined with age. Would someone please read this article and convey to me the answers it proposes to provide? If you, like me, cannot find the answers promised to be revealed by this article can you point to an article that does actually address these questions?

The article admits measuring public sentiment based on "opinion polling" is difficult in authoritarian countries like Russia, but then goes on to cite "opinion polls" for what Russian citizens supposedly want and/or fear. So there's that.

The last paragraph quotes Putin saying Ukraine gets to decide its own future...but since he draws a red line at Ukraine aligning with the EU or the West...then maybe it's just Putin propaganda aimed at undermining NATO?

[GGT]

I hope we don't forget our past mistakes. Particularly the one where we listened to politicians making up stories of how some small irrelevant country was building the ability to destroy the world. Our acceptance of this over the top pretense produced the destabilization of a vast swath of our world that still exist today, almost twenty years on.

One of our past mistakes was also ignoring Hitler, and staying out of global politics, because the US didn't want to be seen as *interfering*. WWII changed all that, and US *influence* expanded accordingly. Eisenhower warned about the dangers of the US military industrial complex becoming its own political power source....

Remember, it's not really about world stability.

You're right, it's about the *illusion* of world stability, and how politicians will use or abuse the fears of chaos and instability to push their ideological agenda...in pursuit of power. We're both old enough to remember being taught to hide/duck under our desks, and that school gyms were designated Fallout Shelters, because the Russians wanted to destroy us with their nuclear weapons...just like we did to Japan.

Forget the SALT era, even a small, seemingly irrelevant country (like North Korea) can dominate international relations simply by *having* nuclear weaponry.

[EyeKhan]

The world failed in Georgia before that, but better late than never. Appeasement never works. If you give Putin his lebensraum, he's just going to demand more, just like his type always do and as he is currently demonstrating.

I've heard the West's courting of Ukraine for NATO membership compared to the old Soviet Union arming and inviting Mexico to enter the Warsaw Pact. I would be right there with you concerning Putin, except that Ukraine is right next door to Russia, sort of their back yard. Strategically, I'm guessing it is a very difficult thing for Russia to have what they assess to be an almost guaranteed hostile next door neighbor. I am not defending Putin's actions so much as pointing out he is probably not bluffing - they will go to war over this. Do we want to fight over Ukraine? And if we did, how easy would it be for the conflict to escalate horribly, especially if Russia begins to lose. It is not the rise of Nazi Germany we are seeing, this is a nuclear armed enemy, with likely very capable cyber warfare assets, and it is facing what probably feels like an existential threat. I'll be pretty pissed off if after all this time THIS shit tips us over into the apocalypse.

[GGT]

Why would Russians go from seeing Ukraine as "friendly border brother" to "hostile neighbor"....if not for Putin's anti-western, anti-NATO propaganda?

[EyeKhan]

Why would Russians go from seeing Ukraine as "friendly border brother" to "hostile neighbor"....if not for Putin's anti-western, anti-NATO propaganda?

When has Russia last looked on Ukraine as a friendly border brother, rather than a satellite to be dominated? If the leadership in Kiev isn't in Russia's pocket, then Ukraine is dangerous to Russia's security. That's where Russia is at right now, and with that Ukraine government courting help from NATO, of course Russia's upset. I can't say if this position is a Putin-only thing or not, but I seriously doubt it.

[Being]

Biden family probably has some financial interests in Ukraine the President is trying to protect with all his stupid rhetoric (just replace economic catastrophe with mushroom cloud and we have Bush, Rice, Powell, and Blair all over again...twenty years on).

Ukrainians wish USA would stfu.

[Dreadnaught]

Are you reading/watching a lot of Russia Today?

I actually think Biden has so far handled Ukraine fairly well.

[Being]

Are you reading/watching a lot of Russia Today?

I actually think Biden has so far handled Ukraine fairly well.

What's the point of threatening sanctions?? Everyone should understand that there will never be any significant sanctions on Russia. Significant sanctions would be on Russian oil, natural gas and coal...none of which will happen. Ever. And what is Ukraine to us? Remember when we protected Vietnam from the ominous China persuasion? I have no stake in Ukraine just like I had no stake in Vietnam.

[Aimless]

I dunno I reckon we all have a stake in the rule of law, esp. as it pertains to the territorial integrity of allied nations, as well as in the avoidance of both conventional and more modern forms of war.

[Aimless]

Are you reading/watching a lot of Russia Today?

I actually think Biden has so far handled Ukraine fairly well.

There hasn't really been all that much for him to handle, so the real test begins now. Everyone's been quite perplexed by the intel announcements. Feel like there was a strategy there that didn't go the way they wanted it to.

[Being]

I dunno I reckon we all have a stake in the rule of law, esp. as it pertains to the territorial integrity of allied nations, as well as in the avoidance of both conventional and more modern forms of war.

Is it a rule of law if measures supporting it are vetoed? The right to veto is a rule of law.

[Wraith]

I've heard the West's courting of Ukraine for NATO membership compared to the old Soviet Union arming and inviting Mexico to enter the Warsaw Pact. I would be right there with you concerning Putin, except that Ukraine is right next door to Russia, sort of their back yard. Strategically, I'm guessing it is a very difficult thing for Russia to have what they assess to be an almost guaranteed hostile next door neighbor. I am not defending Putin's actions so much as pointing out he is probably not bluffing - they will go to war over this. Do we want to fight over Ukraine? And if we did, how easy would it be for the conflict to escalate horribly, especially if Russia begins to lose. It is not the rise of Nazi Germany we are seeing, this is a nuclear armed enemy, with likely very capable cyber warfare assets, and it is facing what probably feels like an existential threat. I'll be pretty pissed off if after all this time THIS shit tips us over into the apocalypse.

I don't see it as a choice. We can't allow imperial ambitions to lead to the conquest of peaceful democratic nations. Appeasement never works - they already took the Sudetenland and now they want the rest of Czechoslovakia, and then it's on to Poland the new "almost guaranteed hostile next door neighbor". I'd be supportive of any concessions given over to Russia to help guarantee their security, but it's obvious that the security angle is just the excuse Putin is using and that he doesn't have any real concerns there - he just wants Ukraine and a return to the glory of the USSR. If we don't do something to bleed Russia out over this, it's just going to open the door to a series of conquests, and not just from Russia. Taiwan will be sweating bullets soon.

[Aimless]

Is it a rule of law if measures supporting it are vetoed? The right to veto is a rule of law.

The UN isn't the only source or effector of international law, and Russia can't veto measures outside the UN. Every single democratic nation is free—and morally obligated—to impose sanctions targeting Putin and his enablers, to bolster Ukraine's defenses and resources, to prepare to assist Ukrainian refugees.

[Aimless]

lmao

Twitter Link

[Steely Glint]

Sanctions really aren't going to do anything unless they're substantially more aggressive than what we've seen before. The Russian government has clearly accounted for the possibility of sanctions in response to their activities in Ukraine and decided they can take it on the chin.

[Being]

In response, Biden also issued a limited executive order on Monday banning "new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine," which "will also provide authority to impose sanctions on any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine," said White House press secretary Jen Psaki.

Oh my, that's gonna help......not even aimed at Russia it aimed at Ukranians

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live...e/?id=82467772

[Wraith]

Sanctions really aren't going to do anything unless they're substantially more aggressive than what we've seen before. The Russian government has clearly accounted for the possibility of sanctions in response to their activities in Ukraine and decided they can take it on the chin.

Yeah, I'm not confident the sanctions announced so far are going to be enough, but I guess we'll see. I hope Biden is serious about continuing to ratchet up the sanctions, and it shouldn't just be reactive - we need harsher sanctions to keep rolling in until Putin withdraws. Potentially, we could get away with using weaker sanctions than we'd otherwise need if we can generate a plausible threat of them continuing to build up as long as Russian aggression continues.

[Being]

Can we kick them out of the space station? Musk can get us there now so we don't need them anymore.

[Aimless]

The only way out is a coup in Moscow, and that shit's gonna be crazy. Aight I'm calling it—VladPut will leave this mortal coil within 5 years.

[Being]

The only way out is a coup in Moscow, and that shit's gonna be crazy. Aight I'm calling it—VladPut will leave this mortal coil within 5 years.

Drinking on the job? Again??

[wiggin]

Yeah, I'm not confident the sanctions announced so far are going to be enough, but I guess we'll see. I hope Biden is serious about continuing to ratchet up the sanctions, and it shouldn't just be reactive - we need harsher sanctions to keep rolling in until Putin withdraws. Potentially, we could get away with using weaker sanctions than we'd otherwise need if we can generate a plausible threat of them continuing to build up as long as Russian aggression continues.

I think it's abundantly clear - and has been since 2014 - that the West cares not one whit about Ukrainian territorial integrity. It is folly to believe that we will be able to muster enough political and economic pressure to cause a withdrawal, or to believe that Russia is in any way responsive to Western pressure on this issue. The current action by Russia is just a formalization of the existing status quo, and the world seemed quite content to let them get away with it for the last 8 years. I'm not sure why now will be any different.

I do think that action to capture Kiev would get people's attention, but mostly because of concerns of neighboring NATO members, not any actual concern about Ukrainian sovereignty. And even there it's highly probably that we'll have short lived disapproval and ineffective economic sanctions rather than anything effective. I'm not really proposing we should do more - Ukraine is frankly not worth risking a war with Russia over - but I think we should be clear-headed about how much we're really willing to do and how effective it's likely to be.