Twenty Years On...

[LittleFuzzy]

I'm broadly in agreement with your take on this, LF, but I think there's also some additional considerations that factor in here. First off, it's far from clear that Putin is not willing to commit more forces to this effort, it's just clear that he hasn't brought more to the theater yet. There's some evidence of mobilizing units from farther away.

He may do so but I have to wonder why he's bothering if they do bring them up and commit them. They're not necessary for a settlement that secures Russian minimum objectives now (and Russia and Putin being what they are, a settlement now is just a delay while they set up to do things better later on, which is why they're working so hard to destroy the military-supporting industry in Ukraine right now) and it doesn't matter what they bring up for achieving their main objective because it's clear a puppet regime isn't going to get anywhere with the general population at this point. There needed to be more Russian support or at least apathy for that to ever be militarily achievable and Russia plainly miscalculated there. Intermediate objectives like the destruction of the Ukrainian defensive forces in the JFO are probably still achievable with what's already in theater (securing Kyiv might not be and provides questionable real benefit at this point)

[Aimless]

This is a pretty bonkers ass statement:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ay-2022-03-24/

[Hazir]

Operation climb down seems to have started.

[rille]

”Russian colonel is believed to have been deliberately run over by his troops, Western officials say. LONDON — A Russian brigade commander has been killed by his own forces in another indication of boiling discontent among Russian forces deployed in and around Ukraine, Western officials said.”

[Steely Glint]

Does the Russian army abide by the rules of war, or respect the distinction between military and civilian? No. Do they value the lives of individual soldiers the way western militaries do? No. But... will they achieve their objectives, no matter the cost? Also no.

[Wraith]

He may do so but I have to wonder why he's bothering if they do bring them up and commit them. They're not necessary for a settlement that secures Russian minimum objectives now (and Russia and Putin being what they are, a settlement now is just a delay while they set up to do things better later on, which is why they're working so hard to destroy the military-supporting industry in Ukraine right now) and it doesn't matter what they bring up for achieving their main objective because it's clear a puppet regime isn't going to get anywhere with the general population at this point. There needed to be more Russian support or at least apathy for that to ever be militarily achievable and Russia plainly miscalculated there. Intermediate objectives like the destruction of the Ukrainian defensive forces in the JFO are probably still achievable with what's already in theater (securing Kyiv might not be and provides questionable real benefit at this point)

Putin's pulling troops out of Georgia to send to Ukraine now.

As for why: Putin's fucked up bad, and he needs to come home with something he can paint as a victory and use to sell the idea that everything the Russian people put up with was worth it. If he can't, he knows his life is in serious danger. He knows that what he's done to so many others can just as easily be done to him. To him, getting that victory is worth it no matter how many Russian conscripts he has to send to die for it.

[BalticSailor]

Does the Russian army abide by the rules of war, or respect the distinction between military and civilian? No. Do they value the lives of individual soldiers the way western militaries do? No. But... will they achieve their objectives, no matter the cost? Also no.

It's Russia. To achieve the objectives, all you have to do is claim they have been achieved. An example: Main goals of first stage of special military operation in Ukraine accomplished — Shoigu

[Steely Glint]

It's Russia. To achieve the objectives, all you have to do is claim they have been achieved. An example: Main goals of first stage of special military operation in Ukraine accomplished — Shoigu

Apparently, this has not gone down that well with the Make Russia Great Again guys

Op Ed in the Russian Pravda, Google translation:

Strategy or shame in Istanbul: everyone is waiting for an explanation from Putin

The announced results of the third stage of the Russian-Ukrainian talks in Istanbul were perceived in Russian society extremely negatively. Everyone is waiting for an explanation from the president.

Medinsky wanted peace with Bandera Kiev


The negotiator from the Russian Federation, Vladimir Medinsky , outlined the results of negotiations with Kiev in Istanbul on March 29 in such a way that it became clear that Russia no longer demands either denazification, or the recognition of Crimea as Russian, or the independence of the LDNR, or even the demilitarization of Ukraine.


The suspension of hostilities in the suburbs of Kiev and near Chernigov was announced, and the negotiations themselves were called constructive and "two huge steps towards peace . "


Medinsky said that Russia does not want to expose Kyiv to military risk, because "there are people who make decisions." This is "our desire to gradually come to a de-escalation of the conflict, at least in these areas," Medinsky said.


Kadyrov is more Russian than Putin


Social networks in RuNet were filled with indignation. The Russians pointed out that "it smells like the first campaign in the Caucasus, when politicians plugged the guns with their crazy statements and prevented the troops from doing their job, forced them to suffer losses and lose morale."


The presence of Roman Abramovich at the talks in Istanbul was compared to the presence of Boris Berezovsky at the signing of Khasavyurt, which led to the second Chechen war.


People pointed out that the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov , is more Russian than Vladimir Putin . At the front, those who fight were categorical - we won’t forgive if they don’t let them finish off the Bandera vermin in Ukraine. There were accusations of betrayal by the authorities of the people, of working for the oligarchs. Citizens of Ukraine in the liberated territories were almost hysterical - "we will be given to the Nazis for slaughter."


The situation in the evening of March 29 in the information space was morally exceptionally difficult, even the "temnik" lowered for clarification did not correct it - they say that Medinsky was instructed to be "compliant", this is diplomacy, it is necessary for the "picture" broadcast to the West.


Why flirtations if Russia wins on all fronts?


If we put aside emotions and thoughts of betrayal, it is not clear why Vladimir Putin needs this picture in the conditions of success at the front. Moreover, we are winning the economic confrontation with the West:


the OFZ market was retained, the stock market was retained, the food and fuel markets were retained;
fundamental decisions were made to ban the outflow of capital, which hindered the development of the economy;
the budget rule has been canceled - the money will go to the economy, and not to the NWF;
a requirement for the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters was introduced - the ruble strengthened;
a demand was voiced to buy gas for rubles, soon they will sell grain in this way, and so on, this will make the ruble the base world currency;
programs to support and develop the economy were announced;
international support is growing.


Misunderstanding intensifies against the backdrop of permission to ship neon from Odessa so that global production of chips for the West (not for us) does not stop. "Compliance" to create a "picture" led to a decrease in world oil prices by 5%, and now they have nothing to do with our domestic prices.


Kyiv and the West are delighted with their tactics of delaying the military operation of the Russian Federation, this will encourage new sanctions, new arms supplies, and there will be many other new things that are very unpleasant for Russia.


Can you believe that shame is a strategy


Some high-profile Telegram channels were quick to clarify on Wednesday morning, March 30.


According to Inform Bureau-Southern Federal District, citing a "trustworthy" source, negotiations with Kiev are necessary for the country's leadership in order to "formally comply with a number of international rules, since Russia is a state of law."


That is, the results of the negotiations and the negotiations themselves are not a disgrace, but part of the strategy.


"Yes, everyone was shocked. But ... look how events develop further. These negotiators do not have any rights at all. Could it be imagined that Stalin signed some kind of agreement with Hitler. The level of approval of the military special operation for denazification and The demilitarization of Ukraine is growing every day, and there will be no rollback! Putin hears the people. For him, this is the main thing when making meaningful decisions for all citizens," the insider said.


These speeches could be believed if it were not for the statement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu , issued simultaneously with the statement of Vladimir Medinsky.


During the conference call, Shoigu said that the main tasks of the special military operation in Ukraine had been completed (?) , and therefore "now there is an opportunity to focus on achieving the main goal (?) - the liberation of Donbass." That is, this is an indirect confirmation of the withdrawal of troops from Kyiv and the rejection of the real main tasks, voiced by the president more than once.


The United States will not let Putin relax


But the West and Ukraine completely killed this attitude of the Russian elite to curtail the operation and preserve Bandera as a phenomenon, and they will force Putin to go until the complete victory over Nazism.


Western capitals said they did not believe in Moscow's compliance, and Zelensky, in another late-night speech, said that there would be no concessions, that there would be only "our conditions", etc.


According to the Legitimny Telegram channel, the Kremlin has received clear signals that the Ukrainian crisis can only be resolved in this way:


"Russia will make concessions, comply with the demands of the West and Ukraine, but the pressure and sanctions will not go anywhere until Russia completely capitulates, recognizing itself as defeated, and then will pay reparations to the Ukrainian authorities, which may further lead to a split in the Russian Federation itself."


It remains to be hammered into the head of our elite, which still hopes to regain friendship with the West, that Russia loves only strong rulers, and if a popular revolt is possible in Russia, it is only because of its weakness and betrayal of national interests.

https://www.pravda.ru/politics/16944...vory_estambul/

[BalticSailor]

There are reports of Russian soldiers withdrawing from Chornobyl NPP and the surrounding areas, partially due to a number of soldiers developing symptoms of acute radiation sickness. Which is what you get if you dig trenches in heavily contaminated areas without any PPE. Which they did, because, of course.

Whoever is in charge of coming up with new and exciting ways to fuck up the invasion is working really hard.

[Hazir]

We basically have lived without central heat for the last couple of weeks. I must say it's not as difficult as we expected. It just took wearing some warmer clothes inside and very occasionally turning on an electric blanket. I think we used a fraction of what we typically use.

[Aimless]

Graphic evidence of atrocities—massacres, mass graves—coming out of Bucha and Irpin.

[BalticSailor]

Graphic evidence of atrocities—massacres, mass graves—coming out of Bucha and Irpin.

Expect much more of the same and worse; according to people who have managed to flee from the nearby villages, the reporters haven't yet been allowed access to some of the worst areas.

Meanwhile, Russian mass media are already working on cover-up, although they can't seem to pick between "staged photos with crisis actors" and "actually Ukrainians killed those people" stories, and are currently producing both.

[Wraith]

We basically have lived without central heat for the last couple of weeks. I must say it's not as difficult as we expected. It just took wearing some warmer clothes inside and very occasionally turning on an electric blanket. I think we used a fraction of what we typically use.

Is this because of Putin? Gas heating, I'm guessing?

[Wraith]

There are reports of Russian soldiers withdrawing from Chornobyl NPP and the surrounding areas, partially due to a number of soldiers developing symptoms of acute radiation sickness. Which is what you get if you dig trenches in heavily contaminated areas without any PPE. Which they did, because, of course.

Whoever is in charge of coming up with new and exciting ways to fuck up the invasion is working really hard.

Russians are told that nothing interesting ever happened at Chernobyl, and if you hear otherwise it's a western myth, and if it's not it was a CIA plot. Here we see the consequences of historical revisionism.

Another batch of Russian irradiated terrorists who seized the Chernobyl zone was brought to the Belarusian Radiation Medicine Center in Gomel today.

Have you dug trenches in the Red Forest, bitches? Now live with it for the rest of your short life.

There are rules for dealing with this area. They are mandatory because radiation is physics – it works without regard to status or shoulder straps.

With minimal intelligence in command or soldiers, these consequences could have been avoided.

When your country is invaded and the victim of countless war crimes, your government officials are allowed to curse freely.

[BalticSailor]

Russians are told that nothing interesting ever happened at Chernobyl, and if you hear otherwise it's a western myth, and if it's not it was a CIA plot. Here we see the consequences of historical revisionism.

There was a quote, allegedly from someone in Russian military upper echelons, that the reports of radiation sickness must be false, because the same area was held by the Red Army during WW2 for an even longer time, and no radiation sickness was ever reported.
I mean, it's probably a parody, but I'm not 100% sure. After seeing Russian "news" reporting on soldiers clearing minefields - with the reporter walking several feet IN FRONT of the soldiers with the mine detectors - I don't think "too stupid to be true" applies to anything there.

EDIT: Not sure if you were joking, but, although the explanations for the reasons may vary, the Chernobyl disaster (namely, the general idea that a NPP blew up there, and the area is contaminated with radioactive waste ever since) is very well known throughout the former USSR - much of the cleanup was carried out by "volunteers" from all over the USSR, and their total number was in hundreds of thousands. Most are still alive, in their 60s or so (around the age of my father, who just happened to be at sea at the time when his kolkhoz was required to send some people over there), and for people around my age, it is common to know someone from either immediate family or their friends, who actually have been involved in the cleanup. And personal data, including year of birth, of the alleged perpetrators of Bucha massacre was leaked today - most of them are around my age or a bit older. Unless that unit was exceptional in this regard, I'd expect every Russian soldier over there to have at least a vague idea that it's possible to get irradiated there.

[Hazir]

Is this because of Putin? Gas heating, I'm guessing?

Yes. It's 100% Putin - related. Heating is usually done by gas, as is cooking and hot water. Basically turning off the heat should cut out most of the usage. Despite gasprices going through the roof we spent €500 less than last year.

[Wraith]

EDIT: Not sure if you were joking, but, although the explanations for the reasons may vary, the Chernobyl disaster (namely, the general idea that a NPP blew up there, and the area is contaminated with radioactive waste ever since) is very well known throughout the former USSR - much of the cleanup was carried out by "volunteers" from all over the USSR, and their total number was in hundreds of thousands. Most are still alive, in their 60s or so (around the age of my father, who just happened to be at sea at the time when his kolkhoz was required to send some people over there), and for people around my age, it is common to know someone from either immediate family or their friends, who actually have been involved in the cleanup. And personal data, including year of birth, of the alleged perpetrators of Bucha massacre was leaked today - most of them are around my age or a bit older. Unless that unit was exceptional in this regard, I'd expect every Russian soldier over there to have at least a vague idea that it's possible to get irradiated there.

I was phrasing it in a joking way but not really joking about the attempts to send it down the memory hole. The soldiers didn't seem to have any idea about it because they were hanging out at Chernobyl and digging trenches to lie in right outside of it. It's one of the bits of propaganda that surprises me at how effective it's been given that everyone in the former Soviet states knows all about it, independent Russian media was making no attempts to lie about it (when that still existed), there are plenty of people still alive who remember when it happened, and the Russian government can't even seem to decide whether the meltdown was a CIA plot or an overblown western lie. As far as I can tell, the attempts to suppress information about it have been a more recent thing - they didn't seem to be making any attempt at burying it until around the time Putin started his war on independent media.

Most of what I know about modern Russian propaganda is sourced from bitter Russian ex-pats, so make of it what you will.

[BalticSailor]

An article was published recently by Russian state-owned news agency RIA News, titled "What should Russia do with Ukraine". The full English translation available here, the contents therein made me check whether Mein Kampf's copyright protection has lapsed (it has).

[Hazir]

Slovakia appears to have delivered all of its S-300 installations to Ukraine.

[wiggin]

My understanding is that Slovakia had one battery (maybe a dozen launchers?). Given that Ukraine is losing a launcher every day or two (it's hard to know for sure, this is a midpoint between Russian and OSINT claims), this is a band-aid at best.

I wasn't able to quickly find info on the precise version of S-300 that Slovakia is fielding, but it's probably not particularly recent vintage. Then again, Ukraine's own systems aren't much better, and seem to be doing an adequate job of threatening Russian aircraft.

The reality is that there aren't that many NATO countries that have substantial supplies of Soviet era equipment left. What they have is outmoded and often mothballed. Ukraine has asked for PAC-3 batteries as well, but it's obvious that they don't have personnel trained to operate such a different system - this is also why it was obviously silly for them to ask for Iron Dome batteries to be delivered (aside from the fact that those batteries are not very useful for most Russian weapons). It would take months to years to get personnel trained and integrate these systems into the Ukrainian air defense network.

This is why much of the effort has been focused on weapons that can be learned rapidly and are generally man portable (e.g. Stingers, Javelins, Switchblades, other drones, some cheaper antiarmor rockets like the AT4) or at least fire and forget (like some antiship missiles people have been talking about supplying). It's a smart strategy because these weapons can be moved and scaled quickly, while donations of small quantities aging and complex Soviet era systems are likely to have relatively minor effects on the outcome.

I do wonder if there will be lessons people take from this wrt integration of Western 'friends' into the Western family of weapons systems. Some countries (especially Taiwan) have been intentionally limited in their technological integration with Western forces for fear of antagonizing their neighbors. While Taiwan does have some limited numbers of Patriot batteries along with a questionable domestically produced system ('Sky Bow'), but little in the way of an integrated, multilayer air and missile defense system. The missile component here is critical, given the importance in Chinese war planning on salvoes of surface-to-surface missiles across the Taiwan Strait to soften air defenses and target airfields. If we brought Taiwan and countries like it towards closer familiarity with complex Western weapons systems, our ability to rapidly reinforce/complement their capabilities would be greatly enhanced. We were quite cautious in what we supplied to Ukraine after 2014, and it is limiting our strategic options today.

[LittleFuzzy]

I read today that Russia was warning that Finland and Sweden should not seek to be fast-tracked for NATO membership because it could destabilize the region. Thought, "you know, if the "stability" of the region and keeping NATO out was that important, maybe you shouldn't have made it clear it was the only path toward safety for states bordering you?"

[Steely Glint]

Apparently, the brains behind the Ukraine invasion, and most of Russian foreign policy, is this guy, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Dugin, the Varg Vinkers of geo-politics. Would like congratulate neo-conservatism on actually being only the second dumbest political theory to have inspired a pointless war in the 21st century.

[Steely Glint]

A couple of hours ago, rumours that the Ukrainians had hit Moskva, flag ship of the Black Sea Fleet and the eponymous 'Russian warship' in the famous phrase, with two anti-ship missiles and that it was burning in the black sea, started appearing. Then it started coming from official Ukrainian military and government sources. OSINT people reckoned they were picking up distress signals and watching rescue boats converge on its last known position.

I was skeptical of this, Ukraine has made claims like this about smaller vassals (Admiral Essen, Vasily Bykov) before and those ships later turned up unharmed, and verifying the effects of an attack on a target 100+ miles away in war time is not so easy.

However, as of just now Russian media are reporting the Russian MOD has confirmed 'a fire' (cause unspecified) on the ship which caused ammunition detonation and that the ship was evacuated.

https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

Unironically big if true.

[Loki]

Dugin doesn't really have any influence. There were rumors he did in the 1990s (not sure how accurate those are), but he certainly hasn't been in Putin's inner circle.

[Hazir]

A couple of hours ago, rumours that the Ukrainians had hit Moskva, flag ship of the Black Sea Fleet and the eponymous 'Russian warship' in the famous phrase, with two anti-ship missiles and that it was burning in the black sea, started appearing. Then it started coming from official Ukrainian military and government sources. OSINT people reckoned they were picking up distress signals and watching rescue boats converge on its last known position.

I was skeptical of this, Ukraine has made claims like this about smaller vassals (Admiral Essen, Vasily Bykov) before and those ships later turned up unharmed, and verifying the effects of an attack on a target 100+ miles away in war time is not so easy.

However, as of just now Russian media are reporting the Russian MOD has confirmed 'a fire' (cause unspecified) on the ship which caused ammunition detonation and that the ship was evacuated.

https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783435471.html

Unironically big if true.

I'm torn, if the Ukrainians pulled this off it would be a great success. However, wouldn't it be funny if the Russian warship indeed went and fucked itself?

[Steely Glint]

Moskva has, in fact, sunk. Confirmed by the Russian MOD. Putin in shambles, probably.

Dugin doesn't really have any influence. There were rumors he did in the 1990s (not sure how accurate those are), but he certainly hasn't been in Putin's inner circle.

More his books and ideas, rather than as an individual.

[LittleFuzzy]

Russian reports are that it was being towed and sank in a storm. Truly, that part of the Black Sea is known for its dangerous clear-day, calm-water storms.

[Aimless]

Russian reports are that it was being towed and sank in a storm. Truly, that part of the Black Sea is known for its dangerous clear-day, calm-water storms.

What is cope if not dignity persevering

[Hazir]

Russian reports are that it was being towed and sank in a storm. Truly, that part of the Black Sea is known for its dangerous clear-day, calm-water storms.

If I read the poseidon info correctly, the see was a bit choppy around the time it went down. Also, if it didn't have its own engine power it could be very vulnerable.

[Hazir]

I heard a claim it's first designation was 'Slava'

And that turns out to be correct.

So that's one Slava down for Ukrayna. .