Ride of the lolkyries aka. the fate of the Wagner Group

[Aimless]

Will toxic masculinity finally destroy Prigozhin?

Will soldiers take up arms against mercs?

Will mercs turn on their owner?

How will this play out?

It's only Friday!

[Aimless]

Weird claims abt Russian army shelling Wagner positions in Ukraine, can't be right

[Being]

Let's not get tricked into giving them weapons.

[Lewkowski]

No clue what's *actually* going on but on the surface it looks hilarious.

[BalticSailor]

Will toxic masculinity finally destroy Prigozhin?

Will soldiers take up arms against mercs?

Will mercs turn on their owner?

How will this play out?

It's only Friday!

In order:
- I don't think so; my money's on a drone strike, and I don't think the Russians will develop a drone named "toxic masculinity" anytime soon.
- I sure hope so.
- Some, maybe, but I don't expect them to start a... counter-coup? nested coup?
- Hopefully, like Operation Barbarossa in WW2, only this time both Stalin and Hitler are from Russia, and thus, hopefully, can only fuck up their own country in the process (apart from the damage already done in Ukraine, of course).

[Hazir]

I guess Prigozhin is prime defenestration material by now.

Though you have to wonder about Putin too, given that his 'cook' forced him to declare a state of emergency in his capital city. It's not a great look for a Russian czar if his troops are on the run.

[Aimless]

Wagner has claimed a town. Putin has officially declared this a mutiny. I gotta wonder what the plan was, here. Did Prigozhin wildly miscalculate his position with Putin? Was this a failed attempt to give Putin an off-ramp from the war and replace Prigozhin's enemies in MoD?

Gonna be interesting/horrifying to see what impact this will have on the countries in Africa from which Wagner has recruited mercenaries.

[BalticSailor]

New player has entered the arena:
https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/statu...0517890154496?

[Steely Glint]

[Hazir]

New player has entered the arena:
https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/statu...0517890154496?

Probability of him calculating who's capable of giving him the best deal seems significant.

[Loki]

New player has entered the arena:
https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/statu...0517890154496?

He was also personally going to defeat Ukraine...while refusing to leave Chechnya.

[Hazir]

Is Putin on the run?

[Aimless]

New player has entered the arena:
https://twitter.com/the_ins_ru/statu...0517890154496?

desperate season 5-ass plot twist smgdh

[Steely Glint]

aww, he wussed out.

[Hazir]

What the actual F?

[Being]

What the actual F?

This was all a distraction to give russian troops a reason to relocate before the nukes start raining down on Ukraine.

[Steely Glint]

The deal that was done is beginning taking shape: charges dropped against Prigozhin and immunity for Wagner soldiers who participated, Prigozhin leaving for Belerus. Looks like some form of exile.

[Hazir]

This was all a distraction to give russian troops a reason to relocate before the nukes start raining down on Ukraine.

I doubt that very much. This affair has severely weakened Putin. Appearantly now you can attempt a coup in Russia. With impunity.

[BalticSailor]

People are trying to find some sort of "4D chess" explanation to make sense of what happened. I guess it's too early to tell, but the whole thing does look strange as hell.

[Hazir]

People are trying to find some sort of "4D chess" explanation to make sense of what happened. I guess it's too early to tell, but the whole thing does look strange as hell.

But the strange look applies to all possible explanations. Which makes me think it was just a outsized fuck up, with an equally fucked up response. And in the end there are losers only.

[BalticSailor]

But the strange look applies to all possible explanations. Which makes me think it was just a outsized fuck up, with an equally fucked up response. And in the end there are losers only.

Maybe. I just find it incredibly weird that what started as a full-blown mutiny by a well-armed military group met absolutely no resistance (the few roadblocks don't count; these guys have taken over cities under artillery shelling, they weren't going to be deterred by a single machine gun emplacement on a road). It is also very strange that it ended with "eh, nvm, changed my mind, lol" about 200 km from Moscow. And Putin, not exactly known for leniency, responding with "yeah, we cool, have a nice life in my vassal state" - that might be the weirdest bit of it all.

[LittleFuzzy]

I don't begin to understand most of it (honestly, I don't understand the Wagner Group in the first place) and since there's so much media-control I doubt anyone does but the ending is perfectly sensible. It's a straightforward buy-off. Violence is always messier and more uncertain than a villa, for both sides.

[Steely Glint]

The main thing to watch for will be changes at the top of the Russian MOD. There were reports/rumours flying around at the end of yesterday that part of the deal involved giving Shoigu and/or Gerasimov the boot. This was basically one of Prigozhin's demands (the other being 'don't fold Wagner into the regular army', which he did get). So, if that happens it means Putin just caved in, and if he didn't it means the deal was more balanced.

Also, there should probably be some kind of proof of life video of Prigozhin at some point

[Hazir]

I don't begin to understand most of it (honestly, I don't understand the Wagner Group in the first place) and since there's so much media-control I doubt anyone does but the ending is perfectly sensible. It's a straightforward buy-off. Violence is always messier and more uncertain than a villa, for both sides.

It helps to think of Russia not as a nation state but a feudal system where people's loyalty is based in how well you can reward their loyalty.

[Hazir]

Maybe. I just find it incredibly weird that what started as a full-blown mutiny by a well-armed military group met absolutely no resistance (the few roadblocks don't count; these guys have taken over cities under artillery shelling, they weren't going to be deterred by a single machine gun emplacement on a road). It is also very strange that it ended with "eh, nvm, changed my mind, lol" about 200 km from Moscow. And Putin, not exactly known for leniency, responding with "yeah, we cool, have a nice life in my vassal state" - that might be the weirdest bit of it all.

It was weird. But then we also had that speech of Putin. The damage of him admitting there was a mutiny may have been bigger than the actual mutiny.

[Loki]

The most recent reports suggest Putin is reneging on the deal and going after Wagner members. Shocking, I know.

[Steely Glint]

Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance

[BalticSailor]

This was basically one of Prigozhin's demands (the other being 'don't fold Wagner into the regular army', which he did get).

Did he, though? As I understood from Peskov, those Wagnerites who will participate in the Ukraine war will have to sign a contract with MoD, just as Shoigu had demanded earlier this month.

[Steely Glint]

I *think* the idea is that Wagner is basically being stood down from activities in Ukraine but continue their operations in Africa etc, possibly based out of Belarus. But who the hell knows at this point. We know that Prigozhin went to Minsk (and arrived safely!) but the Wagnerites all went back to their base in Ukraine, close to the border. So if they're going to be operating out of Belerus then somehow they have to move from where they are now near Rostov to this supposed base being built in Mogilev, so obviously Russia is in a position to contest that if it feels so inclined.

[Loki]

Did he, though? As I understood from Peskov, those Wagnerites who will participate in the Ukraine war will have to sign a contract with MoD, just as Shoigu had demanded earlier this month.

Except one was already executed (based on a graphic video).