Dutch elections.

[Hazir]

Two days ago the xenophobic party of Geert Wilders came in first in the national elections. That event caused an interesting splitting of minds in our family app. As part of the family took the position that his win was deplorable but no real change. Not even a real significant change in the support for the radical right, a not insignificant part of the participants in the app were really upset, feeling threatened, and considering the advantages of having a second passport.

It was a strange experience.

[Loki]

Just following a concerning trend of centrist parties collapsing and their voters heading to the far right.

[Hazir]

Just following a concerning trend of centrist parties collapsing and their voters heading to the far right.

That's all very nice, but it also was remarkable to see these two reactions in my own family. It wasn't the type of 'I am moving to Canada' talk. It was talking about escaping to a safer place outside of the country and the realistic options wrt second passports. Versus: he got 37 out of 150 seats, has an even smaller chance of a majority in the senate and the locks on constitutional change is totally out of his reach. A PM Wilders couldn't move beyond his mandate like for example Orban, because by the time you could change the balance of power you'd had to have won a 2/3 majority in the next election and then an absolute majority in the next one. And calling elections isn't in his jurisdiction either. Parliament could stop that by simply assembling a new government. So, what's the big deal.

[Loki]

That's all very nice, but it also was remarkable to see these two reactions in my own family. It wasn't the type of 'I am moving to Canada' talk. It was talking about escaping to a safer place outside of the country and the realistic options wrt second passports. Versus: he got 37 out of 150 seats, has an even smaller chance of a majority in the senate and the locks on constitutional change is totally out of his reach. A PM Wilders couldn't move beyond his mandate like for example Orban, because by the time you could change the balance of power you'd had to have won a 2/3 majority in the next election and then an absolute majority in the next one. And calling elections isn't in his jurisdiction either. Parliament could stop that by simply assembling a new government. So, what's the big deal.

Most of the major parties decided to adopt his tough on immigrants line. How well would he do if they took a more moderate approach? I'd be less concerned about what Wilders will do (I'm not convinced he has a chance of becoming PM), and more about what it signifies about the average Dutch voter. See Le Pen in France. Who's probably one election away from becoming president.

[Hazir]

It's actually not true most major parties have a tough line on immigration. There is a relatively widely held opinion that asylum is an out of control system. But on the issue of immigration the picture shatters. I wouldn't even dare say that most people with an immigration background have a monolithic position on immigration It was surpring to see how easy it appears to be to find voters amongst them who declare having voted on Wilders.

Wilders isn't even really right wing by the way.His platform reads like a socialist manifest that strangely got peppered with xenophobic ideas. sometimes I wonder if it isn't better to compare him to Corbyn. Wilders is am undiluted zionist by the way.

[Loki]

It's actually not true most major parties have a tough line on immigration. There is a relatively widely held opinion that asylum is an out of control system. But on the issue of immigration the picture shatters. I wouldn't even dare say that most people with an immigration background have a monolithic position on immigration It was surpring to see how easy it appears to be to find voters amongst them who declare having voted on Wilders.

Wilders isn't even really right wing by the way.His platform reads like a socialist manifest that strangely got peppered with xenophobic ideas. sometimes I wonder if it isn't better to compare him to Corbyn. Wilders is am undiluted zionist by the way.

Just like a sizeable number of certain groups supported Trump even though Trump said he wanted to kick those groups out of the country. They just assume Trump isn't serious about hating them but is serious about hating other groups that they also dislike.

Seems like generic far-right to me: combining xenophobia with populist economic policies that appeal to the working class. See Le Pen.

[Lewkowski]

I have no idea about the politics in the country, but the usual people in the media are wailing and crying so I can only assume its good.

[Loki]

I can only imagine what your political preferences would be in the 1930s.

[Hazir]

I have no idea about the politics in the country, but the usual people in the media are wailing and crying so I can only assume its good.

You're not the only one not having an idea. The system is very convoluted and the rules of coalition making are there only to be shoved aside if they get in the way.

I can, to an extent, understand feeling an unease about the idea of Wilders leading a government. But the wailing is very premature I think.

[Hazir]

Just like a sizeable number of certain groups supported Trump even though Trump said he wanted to kick those groups out of the country. They just assume Trump isn't serious about hating them but is serious about hating other groups that they also dislike.

Seems like generic far-right to me: combining xenophobia with populist economic policies that appeal to the working class. See Le Pen.

Anti-migration overhere includes, but is far from only directed at non-white immigrants. The white ex-pat in his penthouse also is treated as part of the problem.

[Aimless]

Same story all over Europe?the far right wins when the center and center-right agrees to lose by diving head-first into a political loser-monkey death spiral in the hopes of winning back disaffected anti-immigration voters through appeasement. The center can't beat the far right at its own game, but these nitwits are so convinced of their own political genius that they can't help but try. It works much better in the opposite direction?far right parties are much better at winning over working-class (traditionally social democratic) voters through appeals to "folkhem" nostalgia and the promise of simple solutions. Wilders is a generic populist xenophobic/islamophobic European right-wing demagogue, with close parallels in eg. France and Sweden. They're all converging on the same political playbook, and mainstream parties?who seem to all be digging around in the very bottom of the strategist barrel?are all-too-happy to cede the political battle to them.

Anyway, I can understand the concerns; at the very least, this presages worse developments to come?whether or not he can successfully form a government. It will embolden even the most cowardly closet racists. In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats are now the de facto leaders of the government despite not being an official member of the government?unaccountable to the people despite having a controlling influence on not only govt. policy but even ministerial conduct. Both the previous govt. and the current one sought to appease the xenophobic contingent of the electorate by implementing anti-immigration policies that have, unsurprisingly, shafted ordinary immigrants?from care-workers to academics with internationally sought-after expertise?who've built up lives and careers here over several years.

[Hazir]

Maurice de Hond's opinion polls show that the surge was quite sudden and strongly towards Wilders. There seems to be a strong correlation with a hause of protests about 'woke' hobby horses: persistent and borderline illegal blockages of a highway into the administrative capital of The Hague, pro Palestinian demonstrations and pro Palestine protesters hijacking other demonstrations and seasonally of course the Zwarte Piet culture wars. It looks very much that this vote was less anti-immigration than a backlash against woke.

And yes I know leftists don't like to hear it, but to see 10% of the electorate jumping to the right in a matter of weeks without there being any other obvious reason than wokies being oblivious to the fact that they live in a bubble that has no relationship to reality is a problem. Beacuase radicalizing the center has never made anyone happy in the long run.

[Aimless]

Maurice de Hond's opinion polls show that the surge was quite sudden and strongly towards Wilders. There seems to be a strong correlation with a hause of protests about 'woke' hobby horses: persistent and borderline illegal blockages of a highway into the administrative capital of The Hague, pro Palestinian demonstrations and pro Palestine protesters hijacking other demonstrations and seasonally of course the Zwarte Piet culture wars. It looks very much that this vote was less anti-immigration than a backlash against woke.

And yes I know leftists don't like to hear it, but to see 10% of the electorate jumping to the right in a matter of weeks without there being any other obvious reason than wokies being oblivious to the fact that they live in a bubble that has no relationship to reality is a problem. Beacuase radicalizing the center has never made anyone happy in the long run.

There's no compelling evidence for this asinine "backlash theory" having effects of anything near that magnitude, and growing evidence to the contrary. Everyone loves a good story but I don't think mature adults should be this obsessed with fairy-tales. PVV retook voters from losing bets such as NSC, FVD, JA21 etc, and drew some non-voters; VVD lost some voters to PVV because Rutte thought he could beat the populist xenophobic right at its own game, and his successor thought she could seduce voters by floating the possibility of an alliance with PVV. Neither represent a "jump"—both voter streams shifted from right to far right, and it's what you should expect when established conservative/right-wing parties try to emulate far right parties in the hopes of appeasing that contingent of the electorate. Voters receptive to xenophobic politics don't want third-rate imitations; they want the real deal—and they're frequently encouraged by an inane media establishment ever ready to peddle stories of the far right's reformation (as evinced by article after article portraying Wilders as being milder than before, more sensible, more fit to govern).

Who did you vote for?

[Hazir]

There's no compelling evidence for this asinine "backlash theory" having effects of anything near that magnitude, and growing evidence to the contrary. Everyone loves a good story but I don't think mature adults should be this obsessed with fairy-tales. PVV retook voters from losing bets such as NSC, FVD, JA21 etc, and drew some non-voters; VVD lost some voters to PVV because Rutte thought he could beat the populist xenophobic right at its own game, and his successor thought she could seduce voters by floating the possibility of an alliance with PVV. Neither represent a "jump"?both voter streams shifted from right to far right, and it's what you should expect when established conservative/right-wing parties try to emulate far right parties in the hopes of appeasing that contingent of the electorate. Voters receptive to xenophobic politics don't want third-rate imitations; they want the real deal?and they're frequently encouraged by an inane media establishment ever ready to peddle stories of the far right's reformation (as evinced by article after article portraying Wilders as being milder than before, more sensible, more fit to govern).

Who did you vote for?

I voted for VVD, Yesilgoz to be more precise. Not because I agree wholeheartedly with them, but other centrist parties were significantly worse. Besides Fortuyn (after he was killed) I never voted for extremist on either side. PVV is a party that I explicitly and audibly reject.

Please, explain why in conservative mosques Wilders was considered a better choice than any of the alternatives.

[Loki]

Because populists appeal to the gullible and uneducated.

Also, some people just want to see the world burn.