Will Biden bow out?

[Steely Glint]

I'd argue they did act like it was true. That's why they spent so much time backing Biden. A serious challenge against a running incumbent is almost always going to hand the general race to the opposition unless it's a safe seat being contested. Biden refusing to drop out tied their hands until he demonstrated that he probably wasn't up to the exertion of a serious race which meant Trump would win anyway. Most Dem leadership and potential candidates are/were not in a position to influence whether Biden sought to be renominated.

He's probably been in this condition for a year or more, I think Pelosi et al can probably say they didn't know but according to this article his close team have basically been hiding the state he's in:

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/11/p...gry/index.html

Back in Washington, there have been clear signs throughout his term of Biden being increasingly stage-managed, with lists of talking points, names of questioners and drawings of where he should walk presented to him by aides. Ahead of closed-door Cabinet meetings that Biden attends, it is customary for Cabinet officials to submit questions and key talking points that they plan to present in front of Biden ahead of time to White House aides, two sources with direct knowledge told CNN.

“The entire display is kind of an act,” one of those sources told CNN. “They would come and say, ‘Hey, the president is going to call on you about 25 minutes in, and ask this question. What are the bullet points you’ll respond with?’”


The second source, who echoed that same description, said when Biden attends Cabinet meetings, they are “not free-wheeling, and pretty well-orchestrated.” And the meetings themselves are infrequent, with one Cabinet secretary telling CNN they are uncertain of Biden’s condition because they so rarely see him.


In fact, the last full Cabinet meeting took place on October 2, 2023. Sources also said Cabinet meetings during the Obama years, which Biden attended as vice president, were not pre-scripted this way.

If that's true then... I just can't understand what they were thinking, it's not like they didn't know an election was coming. He could have announced that he intended not to run for re-election back in January or something.

[Loki]

Except his inner circle were constantly telling him that he's fine.

[Steely Glint]

They're the guys I'm mad at.

[Loki]

If it makes you feel any better, I doubt most of them will be able to land cushy jobs under Harris.

[Steely Glint]

They won't land them under Trump either, which is the more concerning outcome. I don't believe Harris "can't" win, but they're going to have to run a blinder of a campaign.

[Steely Glint]

Pell grant recipients who started businesses operating in disadvantaged communities for three years ears just pricked up like fucking meerkats.

[LittleFuzzy]

They're the guys I'm mad at.

And we'll probably never get a good answer as to why they didn't. Did they try and couldn't convince him? Did they think they could cover for four years, or at least until after inaugeration? Was it personal ambition? Opposition to some figure they were certain would be nominated if he didn't run?

[LittleFuzzy]

I said I don't like Harris, and I don't. But as much as I dislike the prosecutorial political track, it's infinitely better than the "treasonously supports coup d'etat" track so. . .

[Steely Glint]

And we'll probably never get a good answer as to why they didn't. Did they try and couldn't convince him? Did they think they could cover for four years, or at least until after inaugeration? Was it personal ambition? Opposition to some figure they were certain would be nominated if he didn't run?

I think there's a certain sort of mindset in politics, especially in the dem party, who even if granted perfect foreknowledge that Biden would lose to Trump would still push him through as the nominee because it's the 'proper thing to do' or whatever.

[Steely Glint]

I said I don't like Harris, and I don't. But as much as I dislike the prosecutorial political track, it's infinitely better than the "treasonously supports coup d'etat" track so. . .

While I dislike Sir Kid Starver as much as the next very cool guy, there are advantages to having a lawyerly background in politics. I have to admit, he was very effective in nailing Johnson on his lies and bullshit in parliament and of course Trump is very much the same type of guy.

[RandBlade]

I don't know how inflation metrics in the UK work, but a huge proportion of CPI and PCE are housing costs (both rent and imputed costs for owners).

It is true, however, that aggregate measures of inflation do not take into account how it affects individuals. There are specific inflation metrics that try to address specific sectors with different weighting (e.g. elderly) but it's an imperfect science. Median wage growth across a variety of groupings has actually been remarkably similar (see e.g. https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker ), but you can see that since about 2021 the third and fourth quartile have been lagging substantially behind the first and second quartile until about late 2023. I imagine there's some more sophisticated analysis that has been done, but it's not obvious that specifically poor people have been experiencing erosion in their wages as a group compared to richer folk.

All politics is local, however, and it's likely that specific groupings in important swing states may be experiencing real decreases in their quality of life. It's also wildly likely that people are not economic machines and 'feel' high prices much more than they feel higher wages that compensate for said prices - especially when wages tend to lag prices. I do think that Loki's basic analysis is correct, though, that political leanings are all about narratives people believe rather than any specific case of self interest (though I take issue with his implicit assumption that being pro-union means a union members should vote for a candidate). Hell, one could argue that my voting patterns have little to do with self interest (except in a rather sophisticated 'enlightened self interest' kind of way).

In my view it is counterproductive to castigate people for voting against what you perceive their interest to be. It is equally counterproductive to throw up your hands and say that you can't fight Fox News or social media or whatever. I think it's better to try to understand the narratives that people believe, why they believe those narratives, and try to find a more compelling narrative to convince them to change their mind.

In the UK inflation is based on "home owners" inflation. House prices are categorically not in the inflation index, treated (falsely) as an asset like stocks and shares and not as a cost of buying a home to live in.

Rent is included, weighted at the proportion who rent, but the proportion who don't heavily weigh that down. House prices are not included.

For decades rent and house prices have been rising faster than inflation, which is downweighted in the inflation index by rent being weighted only for the percentage who do rent, which would be fair enough if house prices were weighted by the proportion who buy homes but that's simply a null data set not included at all.

Home maintenance costs etc are included for home owners.

But the cost of the house itself? Absolutely nowhere.

[Aimless]

I guess I understand why Biden didn't resign outright, and I guess that bolsters his support for Harris.

Slew of important endorsements coming in. Pelosi is a holdout and I hope she'll finally be sidelined.

Dems have raised $30 in like 5h.

Trump is complaining abt fraud while the NYT is tryna manifest a contested convention.

[Loki]

Dread gave DeSantis $10k and the best Democrats can do is $30?

[Steely Glint]

Dems working for under minimum wage

[Aimless]

Dread gave DeSantis $10k and the best Democrats can do is $30?

sir they are trying their best!!

[RandBlade]

Dread gave DeSantis $10k

He did!?

[Aimless]

He did!?

well if it makes you feel any better another person on this forum burned thousands of dollars on Ron DeSantis, a man who doesn't know how to eat pie.

Historic moments in forum history

In similarly historic news, ActBlue reports that they've received over $70m in donations since Harris announced her intention to run for president. Republicans and publishers are freaking out in the weirdest ways, which is nice. Nevertheless, we mustn't underestimate poll-poisoned Dem strategists' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I hope Loki can keep them in check

[Loki]

He did!?

That's what he said. Unclear if it was because of a mutual hatred of gay people or mutual hatred of Disney.

[Aimless]

Republicans are stepping up efforts to weaponize Kamala Harris's love of venn diagrams, antagonizing one of the largest voter blocs in the country



Gonna go after stepmothers and ppl who took the bus to school next, it seems. Completely lost the plot.

That's what he said. Unclear if it was because of a mutual hatred of gay people or mutual hatred of Disney.

It's bc neither of them know how to eat pie

[Steely Glint]

First poll showing +2 for Harris, +3-4 if Kennedy is included. Early days yet but I think the decision to switch out from Biden is probably vindicated.

[Loki]

I'd wait at least a few more weeks before taking any poll seriously. Better yet, wait for about 2 weeks after the Democratic Convention to avoid counting any temporary bounce.

[Steely Glint]

What I mean is, no on seems to have gotten mad they switched out the previously selected candidate, or haven't had a full primary. As for who's going to win, I'd wait till at least October

[Loki]

That's because the GOP hasn't had enough time to "introduce" her to Republican and Republican-leaning voters.

[Aimless]

That's because the GOP hasn't had enough time to "introduce" her to Republican and Republican-leaning voters.

sure they have she's the bus-riding venn-diagram loving stepmom who laughs

[EyeKhan]

What I mean is, no on seems to have gotten mad they switched out the previously selected candidate, or haven't had a full primary. As for who's going to win, I'd wait till at least October

It feels like every single non-Trumper in America is collectively sighing in relief. Kind of perfect for a former prosecutor to be running against the criminal in chief - her campaign needs to make this all about Trump. Shouldn't be hard, Trump doesn't seem to campaign on anything real. I'm very interested to see how the next debate goes.

Note: that wasn't a real primary. Biden said I wanna run and everyone in the Democratic party said okay, lets go state to state and pretend there's a vote about it. Everyone I spoke to wanted Biden to step down before the campaign even started. When he declared it was like awww shit. Nobody but Republicans are going to cry foul in any way.

[Loki]

Crying is about the only thing they're good at.

[Aimless]

AP's fact check debunking the claim that Vance fucked a couch has been taken down??

google apnews.com vance sex couch

[LittleFuzzy]

That's because the GOP hasn't had enough time to "introduce" her to Republican and Republican-leaning voters.

What do they need to do that for? She's A) a woman and B) not white. Covers all the bases they care about

[Aimless]

Twitter Link

Trump is gonna have to declare his contributions to Harris's campaign

[Dreadnaught]

Please tell me you put money on this.