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I doubt they have very sophisticated targeting systems or rules of engagement. If the US Navy can mistake an Iranian passenger jet for an F-14 (granted, using 30-year old technology), I'm sure the separatists can screw up as well. They have a new toy in their SAM systems, and they're clearly trying to ground the Ukrainian air force. This was a miscalculation (and a big, stupid one), not intentional.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
I worked over three years on state of the art tracking radars, and I can assure you that it is very probable to mistake a passenger jet for a transport jet at that hight.
We tracked a lot of civil planes around Zürich to test our software and it is very simple to do this. Put the trackball on the scanner radar, press the acquisition button, then wait till the target is locked. But to identify the plane from below is not so easy. You don't really have a reference, so it is quite hard to guess the size.
So you would have to use the FFI or civil identification to identify the plane, but then you have to know how to use it. I didn't program the FFI so I never learned it. Very likely that the separatists never learned it either. Once they found out how to shoot down a plane, they where happy. No reason to read the safety manual.
Even if they didn't accidentally claim this one (and I think this was the only one today), everyone's been playing it all wrong for a false flag from the Russian side. It became impossible to pull off very quickly, because of the Russians and separatists themselves. So I'm still discounting the possibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by Flixy
One of the dangers of conspiracy theorists like Kat is that they can cause people to dismiss out of hand the ones that actually might be true. There's already been a lot of incidents in this war where both sides claimed it was the other side who did something, so don't throw out the possibility of one of them knowingly lying too quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
I find it unlikely that the current Ukrainian government intentionally shot down a plane with almost 300 passengers. The interim government crazy, but I have, at least until now, some respect of the current one.
Anyone know who is going to process the black box? Or what side got to it first?
I read it has been "stolen" by the separatists.
Deliberate escalation and provocation justifying Russian intervention to ensure no such "accidents" happen a second time. Not saying I think that's what happened, I prefer to apply Hanlon's Razor about preferring stupidity/incompetence to malice as the reason behind events, but Russia has relied on manufactured provocations justifying an intervention to stabilize an area before.Quote:
Originally Posted by wiggin
Russian sources now claim that the plane was mistaken for Putin's plane which supposedly was on the same route and close to the MH flight.Quote:
Originally Posted by wiggin
* And that tidbit has already been nixed now by other Russians. _
Putin wanted to fly to Volgograd? Flying to Moscow doesn't get you there.
It has already been denied already.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
In a prime example of cynical opportunism Israel started ground operations in Gaza tonight.
Oh please. The invasion has been in the works for days. As soon as hamas made it clear a cease fire is not in the offing, they began final preparations including the final reserve callups. This has nothing to do with Ukraine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Russia has gotten so good at creating its own reality that there really is no need to engage in any kind of risky actions to bring that reality about.Quote:
Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy
And it started exactly when the news was 100% focused on the developing story of a passenger airplane being shot down. I think the start has got everything to do with what happened in Ukraine. There is nothing the IDF likes more than international news organisations being distracted by a bigger story than Palestinean corpses.Quote:
Originally Posted by wiggin
What would have been leading news hours ago, now is merely an item on the ticker under the pictures from Ukraine.
Ah, so I was partly right: ground-air-missile-systems do have an IFF system. Just not the older ones.
Of course they have. But you also have to use it. It has to be configured first.
If you think being the #2 story for a day is going to save Israel from condemnation, you're dreaming.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
I suspect the timing was driven by a complex series of factors, but likely this was not one of them. I suspect the order actually went out before the plane went down.
Considering the amount of planning which has to go into a ground offensive, that's pretty much a given. After all, we're not talking about a high-response unit like SWAT but rather large units of the military.
Ahum. Untill when was there a cease fire again? Preparing an attack takes time I will admit, but once preparations are done one can appearantly both delay and time the beginning pretty much at wish.Quote:
Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro
I still have no doubt that the main reason why the operations started when they started was that nobody was looking. And basically still nobody is.
47 not identified (nationality uncertain)
154 Dutch
27 Australian
23 Malay
11 indonesian
6 British
4 German
4 Belgian
3 Phillippino
1 Canadian
Names of all victims are known, but not released.
Bullshit, it's on the front page. Second story but still front.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
Maybe not in the Dutch media, but that's understandable.
CNN is covering both heavily lopsided as well. Same for BBC News.Quote:
Originally Posted by earthJoker
CNN just had pictures of the plane hurtling down to earth with a big fire on one of the wings. Looks like the fuselage was intact still. Can't imagine what the situation was like inside the cabin. Must have been grim.
Cant find those pics on the US CNN yet. Have seen the video of debris falling through the smoke, along with the pictures of plane pieces being so far apart, so there is so suggestion that the plane started to break up before hitting the ground.
Trasncript:
Subtitled: 17.07.2014. Bezler group terrorists have shot down a passanger plane Boeing-777 of Malaysian Airlines using air missile system. At 16:40 Bezler has reported to his coordinator GRU colonel Geranin Vasiliy Mykolayovich.
Bezler: "Just downed a plane. "Miner" group. It has fallen behind Enakievo.
Geranin: "Pilots? Where are the pilots?"
Bezler: "Went to look for and photo the downed plane. It's smoking..."
Geranin: "How many minutes ago?"
Bezler: "Approximately 30 minutes ago"
Subtites: After examining the plane terrorists have concluded they've downed the civilian aircraft.
"Greek" (apparently a nickname): "Yes, major!"
"Major" (same here): "Allright. So the "chernuhinskie" have downed the plane. From Chernuhinskiy check point. Cosacs that are located at Chernuhino." "The plane has colapsed in the air, around the Petropavlovsk mine. We found the first "two hundred" (dead person). It's a civilian"
Greek: "What's going on there?"
Major: "In short, [shit], its 100% a civilian plane"
Greek: "[Fuck] are there a lot of people?"
Major: "Fucking shit. The parts have fallen right in the backyards."
Greek: "What kind of plane?"
Major: "I haven't figured out yet. I haven't been to the main part. I am only looking where the first bodies started to fall. There are the remainders of inside connections, seats, bodies."
Greek: "Understood. Any weaponry?"
Major: "Nothing at all. Civilian belongings, medical remainders, towels, toilet paper"
Greek: "Any documents?"
Major: "Yes. Of Indonesian student. From Thompson University"
terrorist: "About the plane, downed around Snizhne - Torez. It came out to be a passenger plane. It has collapsed near Grabovo, there is a sea of dead bodies, women and children. Cosacs are looking at it now. They are reporting on TV that it is a Ukrainian transport An-26, but they say it says Malaysian Airlines on it. What was it doing on Ukrainian territory?"
M. Kozicin: "Means they were transporting spies. Shouldn't fukn fly there, it's war now'
I've seen the end translated differently. Doesn't mean these fucknuts don't deserve to die a horrible horrible death, but I think it changes the tone for how they are trying to justify their actions to themselves
2:12: What was it doing in Ukrainian territory?
2:16: Means it was transporting spies, understood?
2:18: Got it
2:19: Shouldn't fucking fly there. There's a war going on.
2:21: Understood.
Israeli press report that the decision to start a ground offensive was taken in a security cabinet meeting on Tuesday after it became clear Hamas had no interest in a cease fire any time soon. After further troops were positioned on Wednesday, the Israelis decided to let Gaza residents stock up during the 'humanitarian' pause in bombings on Thursday morning; the logic being that well-stocked Gazans would feel less of a need to venture out during potential street battles in the coming fighting. The cabinet gave the final green light on Thursday; as soon as the humanitarian pause was over, heavy shelling began and ground units moved in a few hours later. I suspect the specific timing had a lot to do with positioning units for a night offensive, the start of the Israeli weekend on Thursday night (meaning less interference in people getting to work from increased rocket barrages), the readiness of newly activated reserve units, and intelligence. The final go-ahead may also have been linked to the third major attempted infiltration attempt that was carried out on Thursday morning - 13 Hamas fighters entered Israel from a tunnel with an eye towards a major attack (or kidnapping) against an area kibbutz; though it was repulsed by good sensors and rapid response forces, it's only a matter of time before one tunnel slips through the cordon. the Israeli government and military specifically mentioned the tunnel threat as a major motivation for the ground offensive, as they are largely immune to airstrikes (remember, a lot of the recent fighting was triggered by a massive explosion in a Hamas tunnel that hurt/killed a large number of their operatives; whether it was an airstrike, a booby trap, or a 'work accident' is unclear, but I suspect Hamas' growing desperation to achieve a 'quality' terror attack is driving this more than any other consideration).Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
The timeline makes perfect sense and has absolutely nothing to do with Ukraine or anything else. I suspect that infantry and commando units were already moving into position before the plane even crashed, and the official 'go' order had been given even before the humanitarian pause (and well before the plane was shot down). Your insistence this is some macabre ploy is paranoia and vaguely conspiratorial, when there's a logical chain of events that are divorced from some minor opportunistic press timing. I'm certain that civilian casualties in Gaza will be a major headline every day until a ceasefire is announced, even if occasionally they're only the second biggest story reported.
You could just as well suggest that the separatists in eastern Ukraine are heating things up now while the world is distracted by fighting in Gaza, or that Hamas started bombarding Israeli cities because they figured everyone was too focused on ISIS. Sometimes things just happen coincidentally. I'm sure you'll find kath or the like suggesting that it was the Mossad that shot down the airliner to stoke tensions in Ukraine and divert attention, but I expected more rational thinking from you.
Now that I'm done derailing, back to Ukraine: how much can we trust that transcript?
Well, its from the Ukrainian Security Service. So not a lot initially. But it mentions a student with an Indonesian passport attending Thompson. If that is later verified then we can call it genuine, given that it was released before any info on passengers was available.
It is bizarrely specific given the Ukrainians didn't have access to the crash site, makes me think the recording is an authentic intercept.Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Glint
Amongst the British casualties its just been announced were 2 Newcastle United fans traveling to see the team play in New Zealand.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
Seems the majority of passengers were Dutch, and since they're an important EU member they can influence all of Europe (including Germany). The US can't make sanctions work unless/until Europe realizes this is their own backyard, and they make the hard choices between Russia's energy and Putin's aggression.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hazir
That said....this is why "arming rebels" is problematic foreign policy. It can have blowback decades later (see Afghanistan, Iraq, etc.) I saw an interview (on CNN, iirc) where international 'experts' said Ukraine and Russia *partnered* in building these Buk missile systems, and there are enough 50-60 yr old ex-Soviet Nationalist military guys who could train Ukrainian pro-Russia separatists without any help from Russia (or Putin) proper.
The next question is whether those armaments were in Ukraine to begin with, and commandeered by rebel forces....or if they were recently supplied by Putin's Russia, or through underground weapon traders with a political agenda, or mercenaries who just want to make a buck. :bulb:
Putin has a real image problem here: if he has "total control" then he's responsible/accountable for the fall-out; if he's "lost control" then he's not as powerful as he thinks.