If you think the models are inaccurate, why not assume they're inaccurate in favor of the other side?
If you think the models are inaccurate, why not assume they're inaccurate in favor of the other side?
Hope is the denial of reality
I'm an optimist.Originally Posted by Loki
Obama now has a record to attack.
Romney is a better candidate than McCain.
If they were inaccurate the other way then we would be looking at a 2008 outcome - which I think you agree is less likely than my scenario.
Those things might or might not be true, but the mistakes would be with the polling methodology, not with the reasons for supporting candidate x. That methodology could be wrong for a host of reasons, and half of them would lead to an even more extreme victory for Obama.
As for Romney being a better candidate than McCain: no one's claiming that Obama will win by 7.2%.
Hope is the denial of reality
Why? I thought the polls were putting Obama's lead in Ohio as 1% more than in Virginia.
Florida's exit poll gives Obama a 1% lead. That's devastating to the GOP if it happens.
Because Virginia leans Republican, while Ohio slightly leans Democrat (i.e. if the final popular vote was 50-50, we would expect Obama to win Ohio and for Romney to win Virginia). Think about projections for Commons elections. If one party is up by 2%, that gives us a decent idea of how specific seats will play out. The same is true here. Most polls put Obama up by about 3% in Ohio, and roughly tied with Romney in Virginia. For Romney to win Ohio, the polls would have to be systematically wrong by 2-3%. That doesn't appear to be the case.
Nate Silver is going to be a very rich man if Obama wins Florida.
Hope is the denial of reality
Balls. Not looking good.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president
Time to ban under 30-year-olds from voting I think.
Hope is the denial of reality
Looks like Romney's had it. BBC now coming up with increasingly unlikely scenarios where he might win.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Seems that if Romney wins basically every swing state besides Ohio now he still can't win. Ohio is a firewall now the other paths have failed - and I don't see him winning there.
If Obama wins Florida its not even going to be close.
Should be interesting to see which direction the GOP will go in after this loss. Are they going to once again claim that the loss was because the candidate wasn't conservative enough?
Hope is the denial of reality
"Mark Mardell BBC North America editor tweets: #election2012 Romney has to win Florida - and Virginia and Ohio to win - it's still a nail-biter @BBCNewsUS"
No, Mark.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
I predict blaming the media.Should be interesting to see which direction the GOP will go in after this loss. Are they going to once again claim that the loss was because the candidate wasn't conservative enough?
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
I wonder any of these numpties [referring to reporters] will apologize once Obama wins by 50+ electoral votes. I'm guessing no.
Hope is the denial of reality
Double down and blame poor people for voting themselves more freebies. General trend in exit polls (despite some possible flaws) is that the moochers of society broke for Obama.
PRO-TIP: calling voters "moochers" is not a sound electoral strategy.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
That's not really going to help them in 2016, is it? Unless they have a plan to ban poor people from voting.
Hispanics broke for Obama by a 2/1 margin. If Republicans don't do something about that, they're all but guaranteed electoral failure for a long time (as the Hispanic percentage of the vote increases).
Hope is the denial of reality
NH goes Obama. BBC now conceding things are getting "complicated" for Romney. Republican pundits becoming increasingly deluded.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Probably not - but its the realty. Why not vote for the person who will never make you pay a dime in federal income tax? Why not vote for the person who wants to try to find you a cushy government job? Why not vote for the person who will not hold you responsible for your actions? Oh there are tons of reasons but all of them deal with long term complications. Massive debt. Eroding the work ethic. Destroying our place a superpower. But who cares as long as they get free stuff? The poor have always been shortsighted and live for the moment and so it makes sense they break for the person who wants to give them goodies.
It's too late to deal with your hysterical, class war horseshit, Lewkowski. I'll just point out the irony of *blaming the voters* for a Republitard loss while simultaneously speaking of 'personal responsibility'.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
We still live in a democracy, and you're not going to get a sufficient amount of poor votes to win an election just by Bible-bashing.
Hope is the denial of reality
I'm going to make an early prediction: The GOP will win back the White House in 2016.
Depends if they can bring themselves to nominate a non-maniac.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
I think we'll have another depression in '16-17. The result of the '16 election will probably depend on which part that timeframe the recession hits.
Not sure it would have mattered. I saw a poll showing that people thought that Romney was less conservative than Obama was "liberal". Independents narrowly voted for Romney as well.
Hope is the denial of reality
How do you figure Romney is a maniac? Most of his positions this election was pretty mainstream.
I don't think Romney was a maniac, but he was given the nomination very grudgingly. All the other nominees had some kind of mental health issue, except for that one guy who never really figured. If they react to this defeat by jumping to the right, they have no hope in 2016 either.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
I see it differently. If republicans basically just go along with the Obama 2nd term agenda then they won't draw a distinction. If they instead insist on standing on principal when it comes to the debt and make THAT an issue it will be different. Debt is going to balloon again the next 4 years if Obama has his way - if Republicans can mitigate that they can make a strong case that the Democrats spending is irresponsible. If they cave in and vote for budgets that add to the deficit then there are complicit with the Greece-ifying of the country.
In case you haven't noticed, people care far more about getting their welfare/SS/Medicare check/allowance than they do about the deficit/debt.
Hope is the denial of reality
So far, Gay Marriage in Maine is up 55/45.
Brevior saltare cum deformibus viris est vita
It looks like it passed in Maryland.
So my own state, early results (definitely not final) are showing marijuana legalization winning, and gay marriage losing. I was actually expecting the results to be the other way around.
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