Translation: I never said "there had been prior consultation with the EU". You can apologise when you get over the fact that you were totally wrong.
Translation: I never said "there had been prior consultation with the EU". You can apologise when you get over the fact that you were totally wrong.
Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer
This story gets even funnier now that I read a bit of background stuff on the things that were going on before this stupid people's voteThe EU was actually trying to convince Switzerland to give up the bilateral system in order to create a more structured framework for its relationship with Switzerland. This wasn't very attractive to the Swiss government as it would have meant handing over law making powers to the EU. Untill sunday they could have retreated on a 'thanks but no thanks' position and stuck with the bilaterals. As of sunday they have put the bilaterals on the line, making the position of the EU much stronger than it was before. Where the bottom line used to be the bilaterals now the bottom line is third-country status.
You got to love this kind of ludicrous behaviour. Long live direct democracy in action .
Congratulations America
And what everyone forgot : the referendum also requires re-negotiations with Efta.
Congratulations America
Congratulations you're now on the same page as what I was saying all along. As well as Loki, earthJoker, Flixy and Khen.This story gets even funnier now that I read a bit of background stuff on the things that were going on before this stupid people's vote
You got to love this kind of ludicrous behaviour. Long live direct democracy in action .
*Scans headlines* Well, at least this wasn't the Basic Income vote (I think that one is still a while away, right?).
That one will be in may.
Congratulations America
Don't these kind of referenda show that the Swiss system is breaking down by the way? There seems to be a regular flow of referenda now, promoted by extreme political actors like the SVP mostly that promote positions that are not really compatible with a system of government that used to be mostly characterized by it's tendency towards consensus politics.
Interestingly enough the newspaper Schweiz am Sonntag, now has an article with the headline 'Western Switzerland retaliates after yes vote to SVP referendum'. Roughly the article states; if the cantons that voted yes make it impossible for us (French speaking western cantons) to make money, they shouldn't be surprised if we cut the amount with which we subsidize them.
Last edited by Hazir; 02-15-2014 at 11:51 PM.
Congratulations America
Sounds like California
If an article in the NZZ is right the Swiss government is really to blame for the fact that the SVP could get away with the claims it made about how the EU had a big enough interest to not use the guillotine clause. In reality the EU had already before the vote decided that the guillotine clause should be included in all agreements between Switzerland and EU. That meant that the application of the guillotine was not a serious risk but a near certainty. It also explains why spokespeople of the EU said that the Swiss voters didn't weigh all the possible outcomes of their vote.
Congratulations America
^^ Not a bad analysis.
Though I fear that, in California, the wackiness is consensus politics.
There is some correlation, but not a total fit between paying cantons and those that said no.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
I quoted the article because it shows a serious crack in a system based on consensus.
Congratulations America
A small crack compared to the disturbance within the Euro zone.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
According to polls 74% are in favor of keeping the bilateral treaties. That coincides with about 1 in 4 of Swiss voters voting for a constitutional initiative that effectively leads to scrapping them. Seems to me a second vote to nullify the result of last week is the way to go for the Swiss sovereign.
Congratulations America
Well, the first effects have become real; the Swiss have told Croatia there's no deal on free movement, the EC has told Switzerland that talks on (renewing) Swiss participation in the Erasmus+ and Horizon 2020 are suspended.
The non-signing of the accord with Croatia only is symbolic, because Croatia wouldn't have had free access in the next decade or so with or without the referendum. The effect of the suspension of the other talks is direct; Swiss universities and Swiss students are locked out of the Erasmus program. This means that EU students no longer can choose to spend a 6 month period at a Swiss university and reciprocally Swiss students can't go to EU universities using this program. The program stipulates that the exchange students can do so paying reduced fees with their points being recognized.
Horizon 2020 is a €20bn fund to support R&D projects that Swiss companies could be part of. Swiss companies will be locked out from participation.
Congratulations America
That is probably the only way to go. Bur before that to happen the EU would have to make an official statement about the bilaterals. So far all statements were not binding.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
I have seen that argument a lot in Swiss comments on the situation. Clearly people seem to think it really matters who is formally pulling the plug on the bilaterals. As if the EU would worry about the legal implications once it would decide to pull the plug. It's not like Switzerland could go to court over the cancellation and one look at the map should make blatantly clear to anybody that the Swiss are not going to be able to intimidate the EU enough for the EU to care about that particular nicety.
Having said all that; what makes you think the EU would feel the need to cancel the bilaterals any time soon? It seems like the EC has found a whole bunch of sticks to hit Switzerland with without even coming close to the point that one could conclude the EU is renaging on its obligations under the agreements. The relationship between the EU is very much subject to constant change because the legislative process in the EU takes place continually. Many of the EU laws are implementations of adjusted policies. If the EU simply stops negotiating on those changes even in a 3 year period the bilateral package could be so hollowed out that it's not even worth bothering with cancellation. If you want to see how that works just look at how the plug is pulled on Swiss participation in Erasmus and Horizon 2020. Swiss has formally not been kicked out of those programs; but the effect of not including it in the talks about re-newing the programs materially does the same. That trick can be repeated over and over again. Schengen is definately a soft target too; changes in the technical requirements could already lock Switzerland out of that if it isn't a party in the negotiations.
Congratulations America
You mean the EU, in its current fragile state with a lot of population in member states supporting similar legislation as Swiss just passed, (I personally don't support but if EU thinks to dictate to us they can go fuck themselves) will intentionally start a trade war with Switzerland locking themselves out of a market of 8 million who are many times more wealthy then average EU citizen? Yes Switzerland is entirely dependent and would be the one to suffer more from this but don't think for a moment that it would be painless for EU. Further it may in the over the long term be beneficial to Switzerland as we will likely start granting fiscal residence to wealthy EU citizens which we stopped doing on grounds of weird solidarity as some socialists felt it was unfair to the other countries, further it will drive these people out of power and we will protect our fiscal sector and be much less worried about cross border sensibilities which are making banks life difficult at the moment.
You are mistaken, the EU will not start the process you talk about. That process has already started, and it has started not just as feared by the no side, but as explicitly announced before the vote. It is not our problem that the Swiss 'sovereign' is so tone deaf the message didn't come through.
You also seem to forget that the things that we could ultimately deprive you of, as per previous agreements, is the free movement of capital, services and goods between Switzerland and the EU. Your dependence is such that we do not have to care all that much about retaliations of any kind. For starters, slowly shutting you out will start hurting Switzerland looooong before the EU would feel anything at all. It's not like you have anything to offer to the world that you could still offer to the world if you really try to get nasty with us. So for all your huffing and puffing here, the reality is that the situation is going to stay more or less civil with the EU hurting you a lot more than you can afford to hurt the EU back (if at all).
Just a little example out of the extreme; we strip the 430,000 swiss citizens working and living in the EU of their work and residency permits under the EU rules, turning them into 3rd country workers that may or may not have the right to keep the jobs they already have. If that results in them being sent back to Switzerland, the EU wouldn't even notice the difference, it's not even 1/10th of a percent as far as we are concerned. You sending back all EU citizens on the other hand would result in a total collapse of your economy.
Now let me go into your final argument; the political situation in the EU. There are people in the EU who would favour some restrictions on free movement. If you look closer you will see that the restrictions people want actually first and foremost have no relation at all to intra-EU immigration. Then if you look at the intra-EU migration people want to restrict; that could be restricted already by the members of the EU using the present framework without any changes. For some countries (I gather the UK is one of those countries) that might mean that it is less generous with benefits that are not based on contributions/premiums than it is today. Shutting EU citizens out of those is not all that difficult if these EU citizens never held a job in the country. Criminals on the other hand typically don't make any use of the right to migrate (for work) and actually could be sent back home anyway already. What people don't have a problem with (unless they are absolute tossers themselves anyway) is with people working and paying taxes.
The only country that has a somewhat serious debate about its membership of the EU is the UK. And if that debate will lead to anything else than a continuation of its membership is very much up in the air. The reports the government has published so far about the EU show in general not only that the UK benefits from being part of the EU but also that subsidiarity in the EU is actually working not that bad at all. Powers in general according to research done for the UK government shows that powers are on average distributed as you would want them distributed. And that's not me saying this, but researchers for the UK Conservative government looking for issues the UK may want to re-negotiate with the EU. It's not impossible (and Rand may hate this) that the next government of the UK will be one that has no intention of re-negotiating anything or holding a referendum on leaving the EU (actually, you have to wonder how the debate about Scotland influences the debate about UK membership of the EU, if you describe something as extremely risky for the Scots you can't simply turn around and say that it's risk-free for the British to do the same). So, that leaves you with 27 states that have no design even to change anything fundamental at all, and 1 single state making up its mind. Fragile EU? I don't see it at all.
People of your kind seem to think there is just an issue between the voters of Switzerland on the side of democracy and the European Bureacrats on the side of tyranny; you are horribly mistaken. Without exageration I can claim that there are at least as many EU citizens who want to see Switzerland bleed for the vote of february 9th as there are people living in Switzerland. You should consider yourself lucky that Brussels doesn't listen to them plotting a course for the next few months. I also strongly suggest you don't start doing things that make the other 500 million EU citizens your enemies.
Now, all of that sounds horribly arrogant. But I think it's time the harsh realities are being pointed out to you and your countrymen; you are NO match for the EU. Any deal you will make with the EU will reflect that and the fact that you have proven yourself to be an unreliable partner.
Congratulations America
First of all revoking existing permits will be a monumental task in and of itself and you can be sure Switzerland will retaliate we don't have to do it for all EU citizens we can do it selectively. EU labor can be easily replaced, maybe by those 430,000 you mention I am sure they will be happy to return to higher paying jobs and lower taxes . Frankly I am content with Switzerland not being in any shape of union with the EU, if the EU will try and force us to be it will reveal the abusive nature of the Union. We are content to deal with EU as country outside EU, the imports of the EU to Switzerland are higher then our exports to the EU. You don't want to have free market without free movement fine we will impose tariffs on your imports, overall benefit for us. You cant touch our financial sector because damaging UBS or Credit Suisse will lead to the collapse of yours. Basically you are saying treaties are void and we will attempt to hurt you economically unless you submit to new ones as we want them, is this a declaration of war? Considering Switzerland is much more economically sound then the major EU nations exporting to it I think we will weather the storm. The more we separate ourselves from the EU the more attractive we will be for deposits of rich Europeans and in fact people worldwide.
Any referendum held under threats of the EU would fail, I voted against the law but I will vote to uphold it faced with this sort of political bullying.
You seem to be unaware of the fact that there are no individual permits, they stay on the basis of the agreement and use their national Swiss ID's. If either side voids the bilaterals, all Swiss inside the EU become illegal aliens de jure.
Your notion that Switzerland can retaliate is laughable. You seem to forget that you are surrounded on all sides by the EU and that when the gloves come off all we need to do is cut off your access. If we don't want you to go anywhere you can not go anywhere and you will be eating grass and Emmenthaler cheese trying to stay warm burning up your forests. That is the bottom line here. Nobody on this side of the border has any desire to take it that far, but you consistently seem to forget that this is the case. Your planes fly through our airspace because we let them, trucks transport raw materials and food to you because we let them. Your imports from the EU are higher because you bloody don't have the capacity to produce everything you want to consume. Your wealth depends on us allowing it.
Really, the idea that you even can retaliate is the best proof of the fact that you don't know your status in this world. Your imports from the EU are higher because you bloody don't have the capacity to produce everything you want to consume.
As for what you vote for or against; we could care less. You will still have to accept a deal that is acceptable to US.That says nothing about 'the nature of the EU', it says something about Switzerland being a small country having airs of being on the same level as the EU. It's remarkable that you still don't get the message.
Congratulations America
Oh, the EU can't. Any decition about pulling the plug has to be done by all members. Cameron is not in the position to do that.
The EU has to decide what the free people movement is worth for them.As if the EU would worry about the legal implications once it would decide to pull the plug. It's not like Switzerland could go to court over the cancellation and one look at the map should make blatantly clear to anybody that the Swiss are not going to be able to intimidate the EU enough for the EU to care about that particular nicety.
The EU has economical interest for Switzerland to participate in any of those agreement. So if the EU wants to use any of those as punishment it will be against its own interests. There is no economical interest in free people movement with Switzerland from the EU, it simply doesn't take any profit from it. The question is simply if the EU and its countries want to held up the free people movement against economical interests for sole idealistic reasons.Having said all that; what makes you think the EU would feel the need to cancel the bilaterals any time soon? It seems like the EC has found a whole bunch of sticks to hit Switzerland with without even coming close to the point that one could conclude the EU is renaging on its obligations under the agreements. The relationship between the EU is very much subject to constant change because the legislative process in the EU takes place continually. Many of the EU laws are implementations of adjusted policies. If the EU simply stops negotiating on those changes even in a 3 year period the bilateral package could be so hollowed out that it's not even worth bothering with cancellation. If you want to see how that works just look at how the plug is pulled on Swiss participation in Erasmus and Horizon 2020. Swiss has formally not been kicked out of those programs; but the effect of not including it in the talks about re-newing the programs materially does the same. That trick can be repeated over and over again. Schengen is definately a soft target too; changes in the technical requirements could already lock Switzerland out of that if it isn't a party in the negotiations.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
As far as I am aware this "You seem to be unaware of the fact that there are no individual permits, they stay on the basis of the agreement and use their national Swiss ID's. If either side voids the bilaterals, all Swiss inside the EU become illegal aliens de jure. " is false. At least Europeans working in Switzerland have never been allowed to do so by virtue of their national document, they must apply for the permit and the permit is granted automatically pretty much but they do need a permit, working in a company that employs a lot of Europeans this is how it works. And it makes sense since their status as a permanent taxable resident needs to be known to the authorities. I cant imagine it is different for the Swiss working in Europe. So everyone has a document issued by the state they live and work in and it has a validity date and would not become void automatically.
Unless European Union chooses to blockade Switzerland at which point it will be an act of open warfare and not economic warfare, we can get our goods from elsewhere.You seem to be operating under conception that just because of our geographic location we must surrender our sovereignty and join a union we do not want, and this is an act of agression
Last edited by Asmodian; 02-17-2014 at 02:31 PM.
First of all the 'mixed jurisdiction' argument is one that is coming from the SVP and hasn't been verified at all by the relevant sources about how the EU, Council or EC will decide. Second, it is very dangerous to be dependent on the actions of another party for your future. It's outright silly to assume that Cameron will make his own job of re-negotiating with the EU more difficult by throwing a life line to Switzerland. The UK is interested in the best possible outcome for itself, and that will be harder to achieve if it sides with Switzerland. All that Cameron needs to do, if there is a need for a decision, is do nothing. And that's assuming Cameron will be at the table at all. I wouldn't be so certain of that.
A whole lot more than the worth of any other countryThe EU has to decide what the free people movement is worth for them.You make the mistake to think this is just about the money. The outcome of this crisis will not be decided by the economical fall out only. I have every trust in the EU being capable to limit the damage as much as possible. But I also know that all 'we' need to do is make the present situation hurt for you is sit on our hands. You pray that we don't feel at some time that sitting on our hands isn't going to cut it.The EU has economical interest for Switzerland to participate in any of those agreement. So if the EU wants to use any of those as punishment it will be against its own interests. There is no economical interest in free people movement with Switzerland from the EU, it simply doesn't take any profit from it. The question is simply if the EU and its countries want to held up the free people movement against economical interests for sole idealistic reasons.
Congratulations America
If the EU want to quit the bilaterals (guillotine clause) yes, the only way for the EU is consensus of its members.
It's always about the economy, stupid.You make the mistake to think this is just about the money.
If that's the plan, then the EU will just arrange a new deal. All treaties that Switzerland are interested in keeping are related to trade and exchange, and every single one of those is made for the good of both sides. Connecting them was a political decision alone.The outcome of this crisis will not be decided by the economical fall out only. I have every trust in the EU being capable to limit the damage as much as possible. But I also know that all 'we' need to do is make the present situation hurt for you is sit on our hands. You pray that we don't feel at some time that sitting on our hands isn't going to cut it.
That said, Switzerland had the right to make a stupid decision and successfully did so, I give the EU every right to follow that example and make some stupid decisions as well.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
1. that's what you say, or rather how the SVP reads the Lisbon Treaty, but given that the voting rules exist but hardly ever are used because the Council typically never votes I would not dare predict which rule applies. It's a bit funny too that Swiss people are pinning their hopes again on the way others organise their internal affairs.
2. If it would be 'just the economy' we could do away with the EU and go back to the EEC. Besides the UK there is no country at all that wants to do a step back towards just a free trade zone. It's all about the economy? Clearly not.
3. The EU not doing anything at all will seriously hurt Switzerland long before the EU will even notice the difference.
Congratulations America
Do you know anything about how trade works? Do you think there's perhaps a reason why a vast majority of the trade in the world takes place between neighbors?
Hope is the denial of reality
Actually I would prefer the EU to apply the guillotine clause, I find it just very unlikely to happen.
I talk about the bilateral not internals of the EU.2. If it would be 'just the economy' we could do away with the EU and go back to the EEC. Besides the UK there is no country at all that wants to do a step back towards just a free trade zone. It's all about the economy? Clearly not.
That's a quite simplified statement. In reality it will hit neighboring regions as much some even more than Switzerland, on the other hand, some countries will go totally unaffected.3. The EU not doing anything at all will seriously hurt Switzerland long before the EU will even notice the difference.
"Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt
Is there a point in this somewhere obviously its better and more beneficial to trade with ones neighbors, starting with logistics however if your neighbors dont want to trade with you unless you surrender your sovereignty you can survive without them or at least you should do everything in your power to do so. The fact is trade treaties benefit both Switzerland and the EU, in fact in absolute terms they benefit the EU more, we do not want a greater union with them then that and you are telling us how you are going to force us in to that greater union. And if we refuse you will withdraw from treaties that benefit you in order to make us suffer. Will France join pigs before Switzerland caves in I wonder.Do you know anything about how trade works? Do you think there's perhaps a reason why a vast majority of the trade in the world takes place between neighbors?
Err, isn't this more a case of Switzerland passing laws that violate existing treaties rather than the EU forcing the Swiss into a greater union? You think there should be no negative consequences for unilaterally breaking treaties? Plus it makes future treaties less likely if there is precedent of one side breaking agreements, why would you negotiate with someone who isn't a reliable partner?
Keep on keepin' the beat alive!
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