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Thread: Ukraine

  1. #151
    Speaking of the nice Russians:

    "Last week, big X’s suddenly started appearing on the front doors of many Crimean Tatars, the indigenous muslim inhabitants of Crimea. The marks were left by gangs of Kremlin apologists, and they invoked a particularly nasty episode in Crimean Tatar history: in 1944, Stalin had his police force carve X’s in the doors of Crimean Tatars, after which they were promptly deported from the peninsula. This time around, the marks were left as a warning, dissuading Tatars — who, post-Stalin, constitute only a small minority on the peninsula—from voting pro-Ukraine in the upcoming referendum. "
    Hope is the denial of reality

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    It's not threatening Russia's territorial integrity, is it? That's the only condition under which Russia would consider using nukes.
    Shall we wind back a little bit before I get forced into defending things I never said nor implied ?

    1. a statement is made which basically puts Switzerland on the same level of global power as Russia.

    2. I reply denying such equality mentioning that Russia has a huge nuclear arsenal which Switzerland hasn't, implying that Russia is indefinetely much more powerful than Switzerland.

    3. You guys start running with this simple truth as if I said Russia was threathening nuclear conflict.

    Which I didn't say nor imply. What I did imply is that Russia considers itself (and correctly so) a country powerful enough to push around its neighbours. Part of Russia's power calculus is its nuclear arsenal.

    Your theory is not relevant since it doesn't take into account that the nuclear power itself actually is distrubing the balance. Russias actions amount to an act of war, regardless of the number of bullets that were fired or not; Crimea, part of Ukraine, is under full military control of Russian armed forces. Maybe you should also remember that Ukraine gave up its nuclear arms.

    Now, if you could stop spouting nonsense on the basis of the claim that I said that at any point the Russians armed their missiles to wipe Ukraine of the face of the earth, then maybe you can keep talking to you worthwhile.
    Congratulations America

  3. #153
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    1. a statement is made which basically puts Switzerland on the same level of global power as Russia.
    Wrong. Such a statement was never made. It's part of the Hazir alternative reality where a war is going on in Crimea.
    2. I reply denying such equality mentioning that Russia has a huge nuclear arsenal which Switzerland hasn't, implying that Russia is indefinetely much more powerful than Switzerland.
    Irrelevant if the power is not used in this case.
    3. You guys start running with this simple truth as if I said Russia was threathening nuclear conflict.
    You are missing the point. The nuclear powers of Russia are irrelevant in any conflict where the use of nuclear weapons are unlikely. The simply don't show up in the equation.
    "Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt

  4. #154
    Maybe I should make a summary as well?

    1. You claimed that the EU doesn't need agreement between member states to have sanctions on Switzerland
    2. You claimed that the EU need agreement between member states to have sanctions on Russia.
    3. I asked were this difference is coming from.
    4. You said: nukes.

    Basically you said, nukes are the reason that the EU needs agreement between member states to have sanctions on Russia. This is a totally ridiculous claim fot two reasons:
    1st, sanctions have been imposed on nuclear powers before, many times. Nuclear weapons are no effective tool to prevent sanctions.
    2nd, the decision making process of the EU is not different depending on the nuclear arsenal of the country it decides about. The outcome of the decision might be different, the process isn't.
    "Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt

  5. #155
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    GGT, he's talking about the physical pipelines which the material travels through to reach Europe. It's not mounted on freight trucks or pressurized train containers. That may be how some of it gets distributed in the last legs but getting from Russia to Europe, it travels via a pipeline and those pipes run through the Ukraine. It's not possible to cut off the supply to the Ukraine without also cutting it off to Europe.
    I know Russia can't cut off oil/gas to Europe without cutting off Ukraine, too. I was replying to EJ that Ukraine 'owning' the physical pipelines doesn't matter, because Russia 'owns' the energy materials....and controls trade and financial policies as well.

    That goes with my earlier post about what crazy actions Putin might take -- even if it causes harm to Ukraine's people, and throws them into a domestic energy crisis of their own, with everything in the chain falling like dominoes -- which could spark a civil war. Ukraine is as energy-dependent as Europe, but relies more on Russian trade/monetary policies.

    Hello? This whole debacle began over which "power bloc" Ukraine wanted to associate with/depend on, Putin's Russia vs Europe. The EU and IMF didn't want to make ~$30 billion in loan guarantees, but Putin did. Europe, Germany in particular, didn't want to give up relatively 'cheap' Russian oil/energy, and Putin knew they wouldn't.

    Hell, Putin is crazy enough to paint this as 'protecting' ethnic Russians, or Russian speaking Ukrainians.....while cutting off their access to energy. He'd throw baby out with bathwater to make a Russian power bloc stronger than "The West". I'm surprised anyone is suddenly surprised.



    <Loki---please clarify your comment that "Russia knows there will be nuclear retaliation".>

  6. #156
    I need to explain why Russia using nuclear weapons would lead to nuclear retaliation?
    Hope is the denial of reality

  7. #157
    No, you need to explain if/why you think Russia might use nuclear weapons in this scenario. If you suspect or know they wouldn't....then bringing nuclear weapons and retaliation into the debate is either fear-mongering or saber-rattling.

  8. #158
    Did you even read my posts? I said that nuclear weapons are not relevant in this scenario, and said so in response to the disagreement between Hazir and earth...
    Hope is the denial of reality

  9. #159
    Then why did the discussion move to "nuclear capabilities"?

  10. #160
    Because of an NSA-sponsored attempt to sow fear among the public, starting with here and then moving on to CNN.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  11. #161
    You mentioned nuclear weaponry and retaliation, not the NSA or CNN.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by earthJoker View Post
    Maybe I should make a summary as well?

    1. You claimed that the EU doesn't need agreement between member states to have sanctions on Switzerland
    2. You claimed that the EU need agreement between member states to have sanctions on Russia.
    3. I asked were this difference is coming from.
    4. You said: nukes.

    Basically you said, nukes are the reason that the EU needs agreement between member states to have sanctions on Russia. This is a totally ridiculous claim fot two reasons:
    1st, sanctions have been imposed on nuclear powers before, many times. Nuclear weapons are no effective tool to prevent sanctions.
    2nd, the decision making process of the EU is not different depending on the nuclear arsenal of the country it decides about. The outcome of the decision might be different, the process isn't.
    You could also not have injected your pathetic little country into the discussion.
    Congratulations America

  13. #163
    Knock it off, Hazir. IF you want to debate/discuss current global events, don't insert your euro-centric ego into things.

  14. #164
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    I know Russia can't cut off oil/gas to Europe without cutting off Ukraine, too. I was replying to EJ that Ukraine 'owning' the physical pipelines doesn't matter, because Russia 'owns' the energy materials....and controls trade and financial policies as well.
    But he wasn't using "control" like that, he was literally just referring to the Ukrainian physical possession of the pipes which mean any Russian cut-off must apply to both. That's it. Anything else is something you invented.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  15. #165
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    You mentioned nuclear weaponry and retaliation, not the NSA or CNN.
    No, Hazir did. Is your reading comprehension really that bad?

    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Knock it off, Hazir. IF you want to debate/discuss current global events, don't insert your euro-centric ego into things.
    Yeah, God forbid people used this forum to state their opinions.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  16. #166
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    But he wasn't using "control" like that, he was literally just referring to the Ukrainian physical possession of the pipes which mean any Russian cut-off must apply to both. That's it. Anything else is something you invented.
    I didn't "invent" the dance between energy materials, transportation facilities, logistics, tax incentives, trade/financial/banking policies.....and people using energy, or their governments creating legislation. I didn't create the cross-hairs, and you shouldn't treat my opinion with such disdain.

  17. #167
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    No, Hazir did. Is your reading comprehension really that bad?

    Yeah, God forbid people used this forum to state their opinions.
    I've followed the thread, but didn't find Hazir's comments about nuclear weapons/retaliations the same as yours.

  18. #168
    What a fucking joke. The whole point of sending bullets is so that you don't have to use them. Obama and Merkel may as well just turn around and stop watching.

    Like William Hurt in A History of Violence.



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhIEAiDyM20

    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...37523037894270
    U.S. Balks at Ukraine Military-Aid Request
    U.S. Officials Wary of Inflaming Russia, Agree Only to MREs

    By ADAM ENTOUS

    WASHINGTON—Ukraine's interim government has appealed for U.S. military aid, including arms, ammunition and intelligence support, according to senior U.S. officials. But the Obama administration has agreed to send only military rations for now, wary of inflaming tensions with Russia.

    The U.S. decision reflects the Pentagon's reluctance to be seen as directly supporting Ukraine's beleaguered armed forces during the standoff with Russia, which has seized the Ukrainian region of Crimea.

    The risk of escalation was underscored by Russia's move on Thursday to conduct another military exercise near Ukraine. The Kremlin also confirmed it has sent six Sukhoi fighter jets and three transport planes to another former Soviet republic, Belarus, for joint patrols.

    Belarusian officials said the move came in response to increased air patrols in the region by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization amid the Ukraine crisis.

    Amid such shows of force, U.S. officials acknowledge the Obama administration faces a difficult balancing act. It wants to show support for Ukraine's interim leaders without further antagonizing an unpredictable Moscow or inadvertently emboldening the Ukrainian military to take steps that could spark violence.

    "It's not a forever 'no,' it's a 'no for now,'" a senior U.S. official said of Ukraine's request for lethal military support.

    Ahead of a visit to Ukraine Friday with other lawmakers, Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona criticized the administration's response. "We shouldn't be imposing arms embargoes on victims of aggression," he said.

    Ukraine's request coincided with this week's visit to the White House by the country's new prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and came just before Secretary of State John Kerry was scheduled to meet his Russian counterpart in London in a last-ditch bid for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. A referendum Sunday could decide whether the region of Crimea breaks away from Ukraine and joins Russia.

    Addressing the U.N. Security Council in New York on Thursday, Mr. Yatsenyuk offered dialogue with Russia to become "real partners" and vowed to defend all minorities in the country. The U.S. said it had drafted a resolution declaring Sunday's referendum illegal, but it is likely to be vetoed by Russia.

    Mr. Kerry spoke briefly with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday, reiterating U.S. concerns about the referendum. Mr. Kerry, in testimony before a congressional panel, signaled that U.S. and its European allies were preparing to take "a very serious series of steps" on Monday, barring a change of course by Moscow.

    The sanctions threat was underscored by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who delivered an uncharacteristically sharp warning to Russia.

    She said Europe was ready to impose visa bans and asset freezes if Moscow didn't agree to start negotiations with Kiev, and that the West was ready to impose broader economic sanctions if Ukraine were further threatened.

    "If Russia continues with its policy of the past weeks, then this wouldn't only be a disaster for Ukraine. We as neighboring states would also regard this as a threat," Ms. Merkel said in a speech to parliament in Berlin.

    "This wouldn't only change the relationship between the European Union as a whole to Russia, but would also, and I am deeply convinced of this, massively damage Russia economically and politically," she said.

    In a sign of how serious the situation had become, Ms. Merkel felt the need to make it clear that "military action isn't an option for us." But her speech evoked Europe's bloody history, including the world wars and the Holocaust, in insisting that territorial conflicts on the continent shouldn't be repeated.

    Her warnings toward Russia are virtually unprecedented for a German leader in recent decades, a period in which Germany has tried to reconcile with its World War II adversary.

    Germany's business ties to Russia, with some $100 billion in trade yearly, are closer than that of any other Western nation.

    Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, whose country borders Ukraine and has pushed Europe to take a harder line with Moscow, said he was skeptical planned sanctions will be enough to halt Russian expansion.

    "I hope Crimea is not just phase one, but I fear it might be," Mr. Sikorski said in an interview. "It takes two to tango in order to get a compromise and I see no indication from Russia that they are ready for one."

    Many Poles worry that if Russia is allowed to take Crimea, the country will push further into Ukraine and seize other Russian-speaking territories in the east and south.

    That, in turn, could destabilize the entire region.

    In a show of defiance, the Kremlin said tanks, infantry and other troops were leaving their bases for maneuvers close to Ukraine that are scheduled to last until the end of March.

    At the same time, however, Russia did agree to start negotiations on forming a monitoring mission in Ukraine backed by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a spokesman for the organization's chairperson-in-office said Thursday.

    International aid for Ukraine continued taking shape. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Thursday that IMF officials in Ukraine aim to wrap up negotiations for a bailout with the government in Kiev by March 21 following "good progress" in their fact-finding mission.

    A Senate committee this week approved legislation including up to $1 billion in loan guarantees to Ukraine, but headed into a weeklong recess without ironing out differences with the House, delaying the aid until the end of the month at the earliest.

    In its detailed request for U.S. military assistance, the Ukrainian government asked the Pentagon to provide arms and ammunition, communications gear, intelligence support, aviation fuel and night-vision goggles, along with other items, according to officials briefed on the emergency Ukrainian appeal.

    The Pentagon has agreed for now to only provide the Ukrainians with supplies of U.S. military rations known as "Meals Ready to Eat," or MREs, which were also part of the Ukrainian request. They could start shipping within days, officials said.

    Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke last week to his Ukrainian counterpart, Acting Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh, who asked for U.S. technical advice on humanitarian assistance and disaster-relief efforts, the Pentagon said. Mr. Hagel told Mr. Tenyukh that the U.S. would take any Ukrainian requests for assistance into consideration.

    Ukraine's formal request for military aid, including sizable quantities of weapons and ammunition, was submitted to the Pentagon following that call. U.S. officials wouldn't specify what the Ukrainians intended to do with the supplies.

    In a report to Parliament on Tuesday, Mr. Tenyukh said the country's armed forces had been neglected and underfinanced since independence in 1991.

    "Today, the armed forces have only two components: tactics and fighting spirit," he told lawmakers.

    Ukrainian forces had been put on combat-ready alert, "but the result is disappointing," he said.

    Mr. Tenyukh said around half of the army's 41,000 infantry should be ready for combat. "In reality, just 6,000 are ready," he said.

    "We are not contemplating lethal assistance at this moment," said the senior U.S. official. "In fact, we have been clear with them that their focus needs to be on economic assistance."

    Any U.S. military assistance to Ukraine could fuel the Kremlin's suspicions that the U.S. orchestrated the revolution there as a way to draw Ukraine toward the NATO and militarily encroach on Russia.

    The Pentagon has been reluctant to get directly involved in Ukraine's standoff with Russia, wary of widening the crisis.

    The Pentagon has, however, stepped up military operations in Eastern Europe to reassure anxious allies, from boosting joint training of NATO forces in Poland to increasing air patrols over Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

    The Pentagon has also suspended military cooperation with Russia.

  19. #169
    Meanwhile, the US is beefing up military forces by moving "assets" closer to Black Sea ports. Surely this is being done to protect Ukraine's people, not energy interests, right?

  20. #170
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Meanwhile, the US is beefing up military forces by moving "assets" closer to Black Sea ports. Surely this is being done to protect Ukraine's people, not energy interests, right?
    Actually, it's being done exclusively for reasons you can't accept and solely because you don't approve.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  21. #171
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    What a fucking joke. The whole point of sending bullets is so that you don't have to use them. Obama and Merkel may as well just turn around and stop watching.
    All the empirical evidence suggests otherwise. More bullets increases the chance that they will be used.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  22. #172
    Quote Originally Posted by Hazir View Post
    You could also not have injected your pathetic little country into the discussion.
    Firstly, it is irrelevant that it is my country. It could have been Norway or Canada. That wouldn't matter.
    Secondly, they key point was your screwed opinion about the EU. My post was hardly about Switzerland but about your strange "L'EU c'est moi" attitude. But I am sure you will be happy once the whole forum agreed that you are the only one that understands the EU entirely, and we should all just ask you, instead of discuss with you, what the best ideas for the future of Europe could - pardon me - must be.

    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    I know Russia can't cut off oil/gas to Europe without cutting off Ukraine, too. I was replying to EJ that Ukraine 'owning' the physical pipelines doesn't matter, because Russia 'owns' the energy materials....and controls trade and financial policies as well.
    No it doesn't control the trade because it doesn't own the pipes. Russia can't cut of Europe from gas without cutting of Ukraine. But I don't really think Russia cares about that, what is worse for Russia. Russia can't cut of the Ukraine without cutting off Europe. Cutting off Europe means cutting of the €uros. Not a good idea.
    "Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt

  23. #173
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    So how much of Ukraine should Russia occupy before you nice people are willing to call it a war?
    Congratulations America

  24. #174
    Quote Originally Posted by earthJoker View Post
    No it doesn't control the trade because it doesn't own the pipes. Russia can't cut of Europe from gas without cutting of Ukraine. But I don't really think Russia cares about that, what is worse for Russia. Russia can't cut of the Ukraine without cutting off Europe. Cutting off Europe means cutting of the €uros. Not a good idea.
    My point was that Ukraine could "own" all the pipelines it wants, or other trans-continental transportation methods....but it still wouldn't be able to "control" the oil/gas products, or trade and monetary policies, dictated by Putin's Russia. It seems to me that Crimea was taken because it's an important sea port, and not for the reasons Putin gave about protecting Russian Ukrainians.

  25. #175
    Really? You're the first person who's thought of that.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  26. #176
    Putting your energy and effort into International Relations is probably a better use of your "expertise" than making personal digs, Loki.

    @ Hazir, yes this is a type of War. It's similar to the Cold War, but in a different era, with very different weapons.

    What should be done....and who should do it?

  27. #177
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    My point was that Ukraine could "own" all the pipelines it wants, or other trans-continental transportation methods....but it still wouldn't be able to "control" the oil/gas products, or trade and monetary policies, dictated by Putin's Russia.
    They can cut down the transport of gas from Russia to the EU. Nothing more nothing less. And yes, that means they partially control the trade policies of Russia. Or please tell me how Putin wants to sell his gas, if he is unable to deliver it.
    "Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt

  28. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    No, Hazir did. Is your reading comprehension really that bad?

    .
    No, I didn't, I implied that Russia was a power significantly more powerful than Switzerland and that a big part of its power was based in the fact that it has a humongous nuclear arsenal. At no point did I say or even imply that they would use them in this conflict.
    Congratulations America

  29. #179
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    All the empirical evidence suggests otherwise. More bullets increases the chance that they will be used.
    I said the chance that the US has to use them. By not sending a strong signal, we ensure the next conflict will be a bit closer to our strategic core.

  30. #180
    On that I agree.
    Hope is the denial of reality

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