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Thread: Geopolitical impact of Brexit

  1. #1141
    Not good but still infinitely better than Le Pen don't you agree?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #1142
    That's a rather low threshold.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #1143
    France is used to low thresholds.

    Far better than Hollande, Sarkozy and Chirac too.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  4. #1144
    Certainly from Putin's perspective.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  5. #1145
    Not as good as your President elect from his ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #1146
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You might want to check the link between that date and a certain poem Khen, but you didn't ask that question so I'll let you figure the rest out by yourself.
    He wasn't arrested, Dude.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  7. #1147
    No only a politician was arrested on that date for reading the poem, so much better: https://boingboing.net/2016/04/23/ge...er-arrest.html
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #1148
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    No only a politician was arrested on that date for reading the poem, so much better: https://boingboing.net/2016/04/23/ge...er-arrest.html
    That, my dear, was a bit different than you try to paint it. They guy quoted the "poem" during a demonstration. Just in case you don't know it, demonstrations have to obtain a permit.

    The guys doing the demonstration obtained said permit under the following condition: To not quote the "poem" because the legal status of the "poem" was up in the air.

    He quoted the "poem" anyway, thus nullifying the permit which made his demonstration an illegal one which in turn lead to his arrest. So, in fact he wasn't arrested for reading the poem. He was arrested for doing an illegal demonstration.

    edit: Turns out that the newspapers know jackshit about what an "arrest" actually is. He wasn't arrested. He was detained for a very short while.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  9. #1149
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    Airlines based in the UK are getting in a bit of a panic over landing rights after Brexit.

    Also; if the ECJ has the article 50 case under it, it could rule every notification of withdrawal in violation of the TEU as it has not been established that the British Constitutional rules were followed.
    Last edited by Hazir; 11-22-2016 at 10:28 PM.
    Congratulations America

  10. #1150
    Hence why A50 isn't being served until the Supreme Court rules what our requirements are.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  11. #1151
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Hence why A50 isn't being served until the Supreme Court rules what our requirements are.
    Absolutely lovely this; you can't get yourself from under the jurisdiction of the ECJ untill the ECJ tells you that you can

    Taaaaake back control....
    Congratulations America

  12. #1152
    Supreme Court != ECJ.

    Though taking back control is for the long term not overnight anyway.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #1153
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Supreme Court != ECJ.

    Though taking back control is for the long term not overnight anyway.
    The interpretation of article 50 falls well outside the jurisdiction of your Supreme Court. If the current case is dependent on the question whether or not notification is final, then your supreme court can't rule on the process of notification untill the ECJ has ruled on article 50. All attempts to notify before the ECJ and subsequently your own Supreme Court have ruled would have to be rejected as such notification would be invalidated by the simple fact that your own constitutional process wasn't followed. Which puts your Brexit firmly in the hands of the ECJ.
    Congratulations America

  14. #1154
    Except we aren't notifying until after the Supreme Court rules so the idea that we would do so before then is moot.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #1155
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    By the way, am I the only one who thinks parliamentary approval is logical and sensible? I mean you had a referendum which said in or out, the result is out so the UK should leave. At the same time there was no particular deal, timeline, or any detail in the referendum, so I think it makes sense to have parliament approve the actual way you will leave. I don't think parliament should stop you guys leaving, that decision was taken, but I also don't think it's a great idea to just accept whatever proposal your (unelected, mind you) government comes up with.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  16. #1156
    Quote Originally Posted by Flixy View Post
    By the way, am I the only one who thinks parliamentary approval is logical and sensible?
    It makes perfect sense. A non-binding referendum should not be enough, on its own, to let the govt. revoke an act of parliament that effectively altered the UK's constitution.
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  17. #1157
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    Well, if you run with changing the constitution by interpretation, then I guess not asking parliament makes perfect sense.

    By the way is the extra borrowing so that they finally can give the NHS the 350m a week extra?
    Last edited by Hazir; 11-23-2016 at 09:17 PM.
    Congratulations America

  18. #1158
    Quote Originally Posted by Flixy View Post
    By the way, am I the only one who thinks parliamentary approval is logical and sensible? I mean you had a referendum which said in or out, the result is out so the UK should leave. At the same time there was no particular deal, timeline, or any detail in the referendum, so I think it makes sense to have parliament approve the actual way you will leave. I don't think parliament should stop you guys leaving, that decision was taken, but I also don't think it's a great idea to just accept whatever proposal your (unelected, mind you) government comes up with.
    Whatever deal we get will need Parliamentary approval. The problem is that is at the end of the negotiation process and the way Article 50 works (unless it's revocable) is that Parliament will face a fait accomplj of accept the negotiated deal or let the clock run out and get the hardest of hard Brexits with no deal.

    Hazir: No it's not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  19. #1159
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Whatever deal we get will need Parliamentary approval. The problem is that is at the end of the negotiation process and the way Article 50 works (unless it's revocable) is that Parliament will face a fait accomplj of accept the negotiated deal or let the clock run out and get the hardest of hard Brexits with no deal.

    Hazir: No it's not.
    So in that case doesn't it make sense to have parliamentary approval for invoking article 50 depending on the strategy and goals of the government to enter the negotiations? The rough framework, basically.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  20. #1160
    Except that to tie the hands of the government before the negotiations would significantly weaken the government and potentially lead to an impossible impasse which leads to Hard Brexit. After all nothing has to go through Parliament to result in that once Article 50 is invoked it is automatic barring a new agreement.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  21. #1161
    Incidentally yesterday we had our first budgetary Statement post Referendum and buried within the details of the economic forecasts reveals some assumptions about how the government expects negotiations to end.

    From the 2019/20 tax year onwards (April 6 2019 on) there are forecast to be zero contributions from the UK to the EU. There are also forecast to be no tariffs between the UK and EU.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  22. #1162
    Did they say anything about the costs of cleaning up after the nuclear holocaust?
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  23. #1163
    No longer forecast.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #1164
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    If you had any consistency in your European ideas you should actually entirely be in favor of your government's hands being tied in the negotiations. Given the present majority in Parliament it would mean that your government gets a mandate to negotiate a norway-type deal which would cause minimal disruption. Such a deal would be seen as favorable by the EU as well. Probably to the extent that an arrangement for the banking sector would be very possible.

    It is exactly your government trying to operate too independently and vying for a 'free hand' that causes maximal uncertainty and potential damage.Especially as it gives the lunatic fring of the Conservative Party to run with this as if the British people voted to leave the continent and head out for the high seas.
    Congratulations America

  25. #1165
    I've got consistency in what I want the government to get - tariff free access to the Single Market with financial passporting etc - I think that is a deal that could and should be agreed favourably with the EU.

    However the problem is that other people want other things like restrictions on free movement (I don't care about this) and a complete end to financial contributions (I'm actually OK with minimal contributions, Canada and Mexico give contributions to the USA to operate NAFTA I believe). However the EU is not keen to see an end to these. These are not going to be easily agreed.

    What we need then is a compromise balancing on the one hand the need to deal with the migration issue and cost ... while simultaneously reaching a happy and mutually beneficial agreement on tariff-free and NTB-free trade.

    What should Parliament then instruct the government to prioritise? If the EU knows that we are mandated to prioritise tariff-free trade then they'll not give an inch on the other concerns which will take us back to square one. If the government knows that we are mandated to prioritise migration and can't give an inch on that then we may not be able to get as great a deal with the Single Market as we could have done otherwise.

    I don't think the government could whip its own MPs into agreeing a Norway style agreement (since that still includes unlimited free movement) which means relying upon opposition MPs which may pass amendments to demand other things too which is then a very risky strategy. OTOH if the negotiations end as a forced choice between a Norway style agreement and no agreement at all then there would be a massive forced majority to agree to the Norway agreement rather than let the clock run out.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #1166
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    Parliament could give the mandate for the least disruptive agreement. Which would cover what the vast majority of Brits want. Rather than the lunatic fringe option of maximum damage for everyone. Or the BoJo continuance of the favorite Tory passtime of destroying party leaders over Europe.
    Congratulations America

  27. #1167
    You're not thinking like a chess player. At least not from the British perspective. Think a couple of steps ahead.

    Once Parliament mandates the government to seek the least disruptive agreement does that make agreeing a deal that agrees full access, restrictions to migration and an end to contributions more or less likely? I'd say less, it'd be a repeat of Cameron going into negotiations having already committed to backing Remain regardless of how the negotiations went.

    Besides you forget May appointed Boris for a reason.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  28. #1168
    Half of your voters voted to remain. Now that you've decided to leave, do you believe you should disregard what that half would like to see Brexit look like in order to appease the minority that would prefer restrictions to migration even if it came at the expense of market access?
    "One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."

  29. #1169
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You're not thinking like a chess player. At least not from the British perspective. Think a couple of steps ahead.

    Once Parliament mandates the government to seek the least disruptive agreement does that make agreeing a deal that agrees full access, restrictions to migration and an end to contributions more or less likely? I'd say less, it'd be a repeat of Cameron going into negotiations having already committed to backing Remain regardless of how the negotiations went.

    Besides you forget May appointed Boris for a reason.
    That is the part you don't seem to get; there will be no negotiations in the traditional sense. You will be trying to have a deal with a counter party that comes to the table with a negotiated set of conditions with no real mandate to deviate from these conditions. The harder you try to get a special deal the less likely it is you will get it. Only if you fold you may be able to add on some items you like more. This is not a game of chess; it's a melée. If you enter the field as if it's something more sophisticated you'll just get your head banged in.
    Congratulations America

  30. #1170
    I don't believe you.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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