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Thread: Geopolitical impact of Brexit

  1. #1351
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Such deals come with certain conditions. Switzerland and Norway may be able to tell you a bit about what those conditions are *). And Turkey is currently on its way to break any deals, so they're not the best ideal to live up to.


    *) Hint: The conditions will include "free" and "migration".
    I couldn't give a rat's arse if we did agree to that, though we won't. Though Turkey's deal doesn't include the words "free" and "migration". Is it only white nations that are required to agree to free migration?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  2. #1352
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    I couldn't give a rat's arse if we did agree to that, though we won't. Though Turkey's deal doesn't include the words "free" and "migration". Is it only white nations that are required to agree to free migration?
    They*aren't part of the*free market so they don't need the free migration. Turkey was going for being Visa-Exempt. Someone with*more than the attention span of a rabid weasel would have known that.

    And if you don't*agree to the free market then*there will be no deal. Ask Norway or Switzerland.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  3. #1353
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    No I didn't, I thought it was an allegory.
    Somehow fairy tales from the Bible don't always make the best examples of how to behave in the real world - you do know that there's all kinds of stuff in there, up to and including the demand to stone everyone who wears*Jeans?
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  4. #1354
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    This makes zero sense. Would you like to expand or explain this?
    The reduced turnout from such an act would not be on a scale large enough to swing the election either. As such, by your standard, it's a non-issue.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  5. #1355
    Indeed. The attempted double-standards on this debate are staggering.

    All fraud matters, all suppression matters, whether it swings a result or not. Or none matters unless it swings the result if you believe that (which I don't).
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  6. #1356
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Somehow fairy tales from the Bible don't always make the best examples of how to behave in the real world - you do know that there's all kinds of stuff in there, up to and including the demand to stone everyone who wears*Jeans?
    You know you're talking to an atheist right?

    As it happens 'David and Goliath' has entered secular vocabulary; though in this instance despite Hazir's repeated insistence that the EU is so much bigger [it's not really that big] I don't think we are David and I sure don't think you're Goliath.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  7. #1357
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    They*aren't part of the*free market so they don't need the free migration. Turkey was going for being Visa-Exempt. Someone with*more than the attention span of a rabid weasel would have known that.

    And if you don't*agree to the free market then*there will be no deal. Ask Norway or Switzerland.
    I do know that, they were seeking that deal, we are seeking a different one. It is in both our interests to agree to a deal, I hope and expect you won't cut off your nose to spite your face.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  8. #1358
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Here's what Norway has to say to your*hopes of a deal:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ry-hard-brexit

    Which only underscores the stupidity of getting rid of people with experience.

    It's not us who are*cutting of our nose to spite our face. It's you.

    Oh, and just to*remind you what Norway's and Switzerland's deal with the EU looks like:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...orwegian-model

    [...]As an EEA member, we do not participate in decision-making in Brussels, but we loyally abide by Brussels’ decisions. We have incorporated approximately three-quarters of all EU legislative acts into Norwegian legislation – and counting. We have legally secured access to the single market, and we practise the free movement of people, goods, services and capital. Norway is more closely integrated into many aspects of the EU than even some of the EU’s members. Our subscription to freedom of movement and our membership of the Schengen area means that Norway*has even higher per capita immigration than*Britain.[...]

    British voters might also hear about the virtues of the “Swiss model”. It so happens that I currently live in Switzerland. My new alpine homeland is in most respects in a similar position to Norway, but instead of the EEA, it has chosen an array of bilateral agreements with the EU on most aspects of integration.
    Compared to the EEA arrangement it can be seen as an even more cumbersome way of integrating into a EU-led market. Where the EEA is dynamic – which means it trails the developments of EU policy in all relevant areas – the Swiss arrangements are static. Crucially, too, they don’t cover services, which are so central to Britain’s economy.
    And if you're thinking that you're getting around the 4 freedoms somehow you're deluding yourself. Because Switzerland and Norway (at least) would raise hell otherwise.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  9. #1359
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    How do you wipe out people's drivers licence that may be in their wallet? Or passport probably in their drawer? Or potentially wipe out their utility bills (if these are accepted) that they've received directly from utility companies? These aren't remote databases that can be hacked.
    And if you don't have a driving license or passport?
    The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
    The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
    When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
    I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun

  10. #1360
    Quote Originally Posted by LittleFuzzy View Post
    The reduced turnout from such an act would not be on a scale large enough to swing the election either. As such, by your standard, it's a non-issue.
    Uh, no it wouldn't? Why do you say it would?
    The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
    The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
    When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
    I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun

  11. #1361
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    And if you don't have a driving license or passport?
    Or a utility bill or any of the other 11 acceptable forms of ID? What if you can't read the ballot paper as you only speak Klingon?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  12. #1362
    Quote Originally Posted by Khendraja'aro View Post
    Here's what Norway has to say to your*hopes of a deal:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ry-hard-brexit

    Which only underscores the stupidity of getting rid of people with experience.

    It's not us who are*cutting of our nose to spite our face. It's you.
    People "with experience" of failure and not willing to go to bat for what we're looking for are of no use to us. Under that logic getting rid of failed governments and electing an opposition would never make sense. The person he's been replaced with is experienced too.
    And if you're thinking that you're getting around the 4 freedoms somehow you're deluding yourself. Because Switzerland and Norway (at least) would raise hell otherwise.
    No, Switzerland would be over the moon with a 3.5 freedoms deal and would say "me too" to it. As would other EU members potentially.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  13. #1363
    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    Or a utility bill or any of the other 11 acceptable forms of ID?
    Who says those are going to be accepted, or will be in the future?
    The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
    The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
    When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
    I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun

  14. #1364
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Who says those are going to be accepted, or will be in the future?
    *cough*
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless View Post
    Yes, I noted that in the post immediately after your link to the EONI. As should be clear from my brief exchange with Hazir these latest posts are more general rather than being specifically about the UK. The British govt's response to the recommendations made in the Pickles report precludes the introduction of a free electoral identity card in time for the pilot schemes in 2018. It should be noted that those trials will test a variety of methods of identification, including formal correspondence such as utility bills.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  15. #1365
    Quote Originally Posted by Aimless
    Yes, I noted that in the post immediately after your link to the EONI. As should be clear from my brief exchange with Hazir these latest posts are more general rather than being specifically about the UK. The British govt's response to the recommendations made in the Pickles report precludes the introduction of a free electoral identity card in time for the pilot schemes in 2018. It should be noted that those trials will test a variety of methods of identification, including formal correspondence such as utility bills.
    *double cough*

    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint
    Who says those are going to be accepted, or will be in the future?
    *triple cough*
    The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
    The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
    When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
    I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun

  16. #1366
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Uh, no it wouldn't? Why do you say it would?
    Having some type of valid identification (particularly if the government is going to remove or mitigate the problematic barriers) is, in fact, very very common. There simply are not that many people who would still be lacking but who did take the time to register to vote and would actually take the time to actually go out and vote at all if the requirement wasn't in place. Not enough to swing elections and therefore not a problem by your standard.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  17. #1367
    Quote Originally Posted by Steely Glint View Post
    Who says those are going to be accepted, or will be in the future?
    Well hell, in the future it's not going to matter because if the Tories can put an id card requirement in place they'll simply install a dicatorship and never have an election again. But that's ok because the EU is going to attack after the hard brexit causes your economy to collapse and establish you as a protectorate under joint Franco-German control. You won't be voting then either. But that'll prevent the rampant voter fraud where Lib-Dems would have taken advantage of the lack of id-requirements to have each member vote five times sometime during the 2030s and swing multiple elections.
    Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"

  18. #1368
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    No, Switzerland would be over the moon with a 3.5 freedoms deal and would say "me too" to it. As would other EU members potentially.
    That's why you won't get it. In fact, you don't get it.*You will not get a better deal than Norway or*Switzerland. Freedom of movement*is non-negotiable. Get it into your brain, once and for all.

    You also constantly forget that every nation in the EU has veto rights concerning a deal. Which will make them play hardball.*The theater about CETA and Wallonia will be child's play compared to what's to come.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  19. #1369
    No you don't get it. So your argument now boils down to "well that suggestion could be popular with a lot of people so we can't be having that".

    I think we're getting close to perhaps you could understand why your organisation is so unpopular and now actually losing members as well as seeing rising euroscepticism across the continent. You also seem to forget that we have veto rights on any new deal too. Ultimately a compromise is in everyone's best interests but if you guys are incapable of compromising then it's better to just cut our losses and deal with grown ups in the rest of the world.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  20. #1370
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    No you don't get it. So your argument now boils down to "well that suggestion could be popular with a lot of people so we can't be having that".
    Listen, we told you right from the start what the deal is*definitely going to contain. We told you time and time again.*Only a complete and utter moron is capable of ignoring that*access to the free market will certainly and under no circumstances contain less than freedom of movement.

    Again: This is non-negotiable. Get that into your thick head.

    I'm done with your*bollocks, your grandstanding and your grandiose overinflation of your national ego. You are not the navel of the world. You never were and this pining for the lost glory of your empire only makes you look like twats. Your government doesn't have a clue, behaves like Kim-Jong Un when it comes to criticism, doesn't understand diplomacy and behaves like an elephant*in a porcelain shop.

    And you can stick your*"euroscepticism" where the sun doesn't shine. Your country itself just tried to push itself into a committee on tax evasion, on the basis of: "Oh, we want out but we also want to tell you what you're going to do in the future!" You helped this phenomenon along and are now acting all innocent: "Oh, I definitely didn't want to burn anything down! No, Sir! What? This canister of gasoline and matchsticks? Pure coincidence!"

    Are you guys insane? Your precious prime minister first rants against foreigners and then complains two weeks later when said foreigners snub her at*a meeting. That's how separated from reality you guys are on this.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  21. #1371
    You do realise that under WTO rules every country has "access to the free market" right? That Samsung or Apple or whatever mobile you have in your pocket (or in your hand maybe as you read this) wasn't made in the EU but still was accessed by consumers. That nations like Turkey or Canada that have trade deals with the EU don't have free movement?

    So in other words you're talking total bullshit. I couldn't give the hairy crack of a money's behind if we end free migration or not, but the government's determined its a red line so it's going to end as it is. I suspect a fudge will be agreed as a compromise (ie with a job offer or sufficient funds to self-finance). But your claims that this is not negotiable is an outright lie as you've already negotiated with others you numpty.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  22. #1372
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RandBlade View Post
    You do realise that under WTO rules every country has "access to the free market" right? That Samsung or Apple or whatever mobile you have in your pocket (or in your hand maybe as you read this) wasn't made in the EU but still was accessed by consumers. That nations like Turkey or Canada that have trade deals with the EU don't have free movement?

    So in other words you're talking total bullshit. I couldn't give the hairy crack of a money's behind if we end free migration or not, but the government's determined its a red line so it's going to end as it is. I suspect a fudge will be agreed as a compromise (ie with a job offer or sufficient funds to self-finance). But your claims that this is not negotiable is an outright lie as you've already negotiated with others you numpty.
    You have no fucking clue. You*have just proven that.

    "Access to the free market" means: You don't*have import tariffs. You don't have random checks on the border.

    For example, try to order a*Chinese laptop from AliBaba. Yes, a Chinese one, not a*Chinese-made European version of a laptop. The laptop will be confiscated at the nearest border*station (likely Frankfurt) and may be destroyed because it does not have the proper licensing to be allowed to be traded on the European market. That is a reality.

    Everything that enters the European market has to conform to the rules and regulations of this market. That's what "free market" means: You're part of it because you're already automatically adhering to the rules (or it's at least assumed that you do).

    As soon as you*are not a member anymore, every single item you try to export to us will have to have a license attached to it, proving that you're adhering to EU rules concerning the good in question.

    You obviously never traded with a country outside the EU.

    Just to show you what it will look like:



    See that green sticker? That means "Exempt from customs examination". Otherwise the package would have been opened and examined - which happened to one of my packages from Canada which contained an electronic device.
    This*one was exempt because it's a box of fuses. But an electronic device like a mobile? You can be certain that these will be run through*customs. And if they don't have a valid "CE"*certification on them you'll be notified and then have two choices:
    a) Let*customs destroy the good or
    b) return to sender.

    Oh, and it only took 2 weeks (another, similar package took 4 weeks). Compare that to an order of mine from Amazon UK which took one(1) day.

    This is also the reason why Samsung, for example, will have some kind of large*headquarter somewhere in the EU - so that the mobiles they import from Korea are more easily imported. But those still have to fulfill the rules of the EU (und thus have the CE certification).
    Last edited by Khendraja'aro; 01-06-2017 at 03:01 PM.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  23. #1373
    Just as if we trade with anyone else. Your point being?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  24. #1374
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    The point is: You'll have to keep on producing to EU specs without having a say about said EU specs.

    And now you also have to prove that you produced according to*our specifications.

    That's just one of the consequences.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  25. #1375
    Just as if we export to the US we will have to produce to US specs without having a say and proving we did so.
    Just as if we export to China we will have to produce to US specs without having a say and proving we did so.
    Just as if we export to Japan we will have to produce to US specs without having a say and proving we did so.
    Just as if we export to India we will have to produce to US specs without having a say and proving we did so.

    So be it. You're a minority of our exports so will have to be the same as the majority of our exports. No shit Sherlock.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

  26. #1376
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Well, what grandiose things are you actually exporting? Cheese and crackers?
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  27. #1377
    Is Khen's point that complicated? A vast majority of trade barriers today, including the most intrusive ones, are of the non-tariff (no, not non-tofu, spell check) variety. Trade based on WTO rules hardly touch those barriers. Without being part of the EU common market, your corporations will find it increasingly difficult and costly to sell to the EU. To add insult to injury, you'll have no input over the shape of those non-tariff barriers. Meanwhile, you're not going to join any other common market (unless you want to join the EEU, with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia), which means you're paying a permanent cost in terms of trade.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  28. #1378
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Is Khen's point that complicated?
    He thinks that some hand waving will solve that problem. Somehow they'll magically be able to compensate for their losses somewhere else. And near-instantly, too!
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  29. #1379
    There's also the fact that most trade occurs at the regional level, for a variety of logistical, political, and cultural reasons. You simply can't replace a rich neighbor (or a dozen of them) with some countries on the other side of the globe.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  30. #1380
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Is Khen's point that complicated? A vast majority of trade barriers today, including the most intrusive ones, are of the non-tariff (no, not non-tofu, spell check) variety. Trade based on WTO rules hardly touch those barriers. Without being part of the EU common market, your corporations will find it increasingly difficult and costly to sell to the EU. To add insult to injury, you'll have no input over the shape of those non-tariff barriers. Meanwhile, you're not going to join any other common market (unless you want to join the EEU, with Russia, Kazakhstan, and Armenia), which means you're paying a permanent cost in terms of trade.
    No it isn't complicated, just as it isn't original. We had this discussion back in May when the referendum debate was on-going. There was no secret then that if we left the EU it would mean that we lose the ability to shape the EU's rules.

    Of course as Hazir and others have gleefully been arguing for years, as peripheral non-Eurozone members of the EU our influence over those rules was minimal at best anyway.

    So we are sacrificing what minimal influence we had and in exchange regaining full influence over our own rules for domestic trade. We are also regaining the ability to agree trade deals with the EU and with the other 93% of the world that we had sacrificed while being confined within the EU.

    That was known and debated at the time. I still think and expect a trade deal will be reached with the EU.

    As a businessman that doesn't export I am required to keep documentation on a number of areas including where our product is sourced from and (at what temperature it was when we received it) and am required to produce that on demand. A business that exports may be required to keep documentation but then that already applied with most of our trade anyway considering most exports are to outside the EU already.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ominous Gamer View Post
    ℬeing upset is understandable, but be upset at yourself for poor planning, not at the world by acting like a spoiled bitch during an interview.

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