Global growth forecasts are way down. There's already an impact on logistics chains for some major US corporations. Whether or not the US enters a recession by November (even money as this point), there are going to be obvious effects on the labor market (and probably the stock market).Originally Posted by wiggin
Hope is the denial of reality
Indeed but that could swing voters either way. They could quite easily view this as a problem brought upon us by the Chinese and wish to become more protectionist as a result (winner:Trump) or they might blame the government for incompetent mishandling and look for change (winner:Biden).
I genuinely don't know which way it will go.
Nessus! Pull up a chair and stay a while!
If Sanders comes up short on delegates, I hope he sticks to the rules (he helped write) and supports Biden as the presumptive nominee. That could increase voter turnout, and win the general election, especially if Bernie's supporters get on board and don't stay home.
Biden is a dithering mess, but he's still better than Trump, and might even get votes from the (R) Never-Trumpers that Sanders wouldn't.
Wondering what Warren will do now....
You give voters far too much credit. If things are going well, it's because of the president. If things are not going well, it's because of the president.
Hope is the denial of reality
Doesn't that depend on what "things" you mean, and for whom it's "going well"?
Economic downturns hit everyone.
Hope is the denial of reality
the fuck they do
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Are American voters really so simple?
Based upon a Belloc poem is the old phrase "cling to nurse for fear of worse" which has precedence in many nations where economic downturns lead to people rejecting change. Normally based upon the idea they feel the government is the best experienced to deal with the downturn (and if they weren't blamed for it).
The 2008 crisis hit the rich more so than the poor...
Pretty sure low economic growth is associated with incumbents losing everywhere, even in dictatorships.
Hope is the denial of reality
Wasn't the 2008 crisis all about poor (mostly black) people getting mortgages they could not support?
In the future, the Berlin wall will be a mile high, and made of steel. You too will be made to crawl, to lick children's blood from jackboots. There will be no creativity, only productivity. Instead of love there will be fear and distrust, instead of surrender there will be submission. Contact will be replaced with isolation, and joy with shame. Hope will cease to exist as a concept. The Earth will be covered with steel and concrete. There will be an electronic policeman in every head. Your children will be born in chains, live only to serve, and die in anguish and ignorance.
The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference.
That was a part of it. What banks did with those mortgages (not just from poor people) had a bigger role, obviously. As you could see below, the rich did worse in both of the recent recessions. They also do far better during the recoveries.
Hope is the denial of reality
Fifty bucks out of a hundred is worse than out of fifty grand. But I'm glad those folks got their fifty grand and change back!
In the future, the Berlin wall will be a mile high, and made of steel. You too will be made to crawl, to lick children's blood from jackboots. There will be no creativity, only productivity. Instead of love there will be fear and distrust, instead of surrender there will be submission. Contact will be replaced with isolation, and joy with shame. Hope will cease to exist as a concept. The Earth will be covered with steel and concrete. There will be an electronic policeman in every head. Your children will be born in chains, live only to serve, and die in anguish and ignorance.
The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference.
The impact of a financial hit varies greatly with wealth eg. your likelihood of going bust, losing health insurance, becoming homeless, having to move etc.
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Looks like WSJ is the new Onion
In the future, the Berlin wall will be a mile high, and made of steel. You too will be made to crawl, to lick children's blood from jackboots. There will be no creativity, only productivity. Instead of love there will be fear and distrust, instead of surrender there will be submission. Contact will be replaced with isolation, and joy with shame. Hope will cease to exist as a concept. The Earth will be covered with steel and concrete. There will be an electronic policeman in every head. Your children will be born in chains, live only to serve, and die in anguish and ignorance.
The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference.
The graphs look at percentage of income.
Hope is the denial of reality
Which is why I chose the example I did
In the future, the Berlin wall will be a mile high, and made of steel. You too will be made to crawl, to lick children's blood from jackboots. There will be no creativity, only productivity. Instead of love there will be fear and distrust, instead of surrender there will be submission. Contact will be replaced with isolation, and joy with shame. Hope will cease to exist as a concept. The Earth will be covered with steel and concrete. There will be an electronic policeman in every head. Your children will be born in chains, live only to serve, and die in anguish and ignorance.
The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference.
Are we really expected to look at those graphs and weep wailing tears for all those poor rich folks? I mean really, is this your argument here? Look at all these poor rich folk?
In the future, the Berlin wall will be a mile high, and made of steel. You too will be made to crawl, to lick children's blood from jackboots. There will be no creativity, only productivity. Instead of love there will be fear and distrust, instead of surrender there will be submission. Contact will be replaced with isolation, and joy with shame. Hope will cease to exist as a concept. The Earth will be covered with steel and concrete. There will be an electronic policeman in every head. Your children will be born in chains, live only to serve, and die in anguish and ignorance.
The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil, no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference.
In aggregate? Absolutely. There will be plenty of people who will react as you describe but it doesn't matter because they're only a portion of the total voting population and their specific thought/response pattern doesn't apply outside their own small portion. And the rest of the aggregate is made up of other such small thought/response groups, none of which actually are that simple, but their collected responses do nonetheless lead to a result that IS that simple.
Well, see, that's the thing. The government IS always blamed for it, here.Normally based upon the idea they feel the government is the best experienced to deal with the downturn (and if they weren't blamed for it).
Last night as I lay in bed, looking up at the stars, I thought, “Where the hell is my ceiling?"
Interesting. 1992 is the most recent example of a clear "cling to nurse" election here, despite the recent recession then the Tories were re-elected against the odds. When the financial crisis started in 2007 Gordon Brown originally saw his ratings bounce but he flunked out of calling an election and his ratings ultimately cratered.
So Warren is out too. Isn't it wonderful that rather than one populist like in the last presidential elections Americans soon may have to choose between two?
Congratulations America
My original claim with which Steely disagreed was that recessions hit everyone. Do you think having your income cut by a quarter isn't a hit?
Hope is the denial of reality
The virus itself is less important than the reaction to it. Several major economies already shut down their schools. The entertainment and tourism industries are taking huge hits. It's only a matter of time before we start seeing such reactions (or overreactions) in the US. Even without them, contractions in China, Japan, and South Korea are going to affect the US in one way or another.
Edit: here's am economist saying the same thing. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/b...-us-china.html
Last edited by Loki; 03-06-2020 at 01:08 PM.
Hope is the denial of reality
OMG I thought the New York Times was supposed to be a serious newspaper. This by a member of its Editorial Board is quite draw droppingly ignorant!
Twitter Link
Even worse the MSNBC journalist, Editorial team who produced this etc - none of them spotted where they were going wrong on this! Quite scary.
I think the real issue is how "hit" is defined, or maybe the disparity in magnitude of the hit, between wealthy and not, in relation to one's ability to obtain basic needs and services after the hit has occurred.
The Rules
Copper- behave toward others to elicit treatment you would like (the manipulative rule)
Gold- treat others how you would like them to treat you (the self regard rule)
Platinum - treat others the way they would like to be treated (the PC rule)
Again, my claim was that everyone takes a hit.
Hope is the denial of reality
I just don't get why Andrew Yang didn't do better - it certainly seemed like he wasn't covered fairly by the media.
Oh. Right.
How does something like this happen? There are so many people in the loop here who should have caught this.
EDIT
Looks like Rand already posted this with similar commentary - mea culpa.
Last edited by Enoch the Red; 03-07-2020 at 06:39 AM.
Or you could base your criticism on the particulars of the proposals you're talking about. Hilarious regardless in light of your asinine remarks about stop-and-frisk just days ago
"One day, we shall die. All the other days, we shall live."
Had a request to move the billionaire discussion into its own thread. Any objections?
Let me finish writing out my reply to wiggin first please
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
It's done. Will move additional posts or retitle the thread on request. Steely, you may have naming permissions, and if so, feel free to rename it yourself.
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