Rising tensions in East Jerusalem

[Aimless]

Situation already volatile after decision to evict several Palestinian families in a ruling favouring settlers. Now, Israeli police filmed apparently using stun grenades inside al-Aqsa mosque on Laylat al-Qadr, in videos (which I won't be posting) depicting absolute chaos. On top of this, thousands marching in protest. Other lawsuits coming. Political situation in Israel currently a far-right clown-show. Potential for escalation—whether due to incompetence or provocation—seems especially high, not least given Eid is just around the corner.

[Dreadnaught]

Unbelievable that a corner case of the whole settler/eviction conflict seemed to blow up versus...any other example of settler extremism like Hebron, etc.

Then again, the noble Martyrs of Al Aksa and Gaza have been stockpiling stones, firecrackers and rockets for some time preparing for this. Pandemic is waning in the area, Israel has made peace with more Arab neighbors, Hamas wasn't gonna wait for the never-coming elections so...here we are.

[wiggin]

Unbelievable that a corner case of the whole settler/eviction conflict seemed to blow up versus...any other example of settler extremism like Hebron, etc.

Then again, the noble Martyrs of Al Aksa and Gaza have been stockpiling stones, firecrackers and rockets for some time preparing for this. Pandemic is waning in the area, Israel has made peace with more Arab neighbors, Hamas wasn't gonna wait for the never-coming elections so...here we are.

I think it's a little more complex than this. This isn't just an excuse manufactured by Hamas, but it's also obviously silly to suggest that the very long-running Sheikh Jarrah cases are unique triggers for this mess (let's be honest, there are rarely singular 'triggers' for any escalation here, and anyone who believes otherwise is dreaming).

There have been tensions at the Temple Mount/Haram al Sharif that have been waxing and waning for a while; a lot of them had little to do with Sheikh Jarrah but more to do with various Israeli barricades placed near Damascus Gate to manage high traffic of mostly Muslim worshippers during Ramadan. But that also is a bit of an excuse (and said barricades were removed weeks ago) - most of the real violence started with tit-for-tat street violence that got bad after videos circulated earlier in April of some Haredim getting assaulted by (ostensibly) Arabs, followed by revenge attacks by the likes of La Familia. Videos circulated around social media and didn't help matters.

But honestly none of that really explains what happened. There have been nearly daily confrontations/demonstrations between young men leaving Ramadan prayers and Israeli police, but until the last week or so it had been low level stuff, with minor scuffles at worst. There had been other fighting and protests in different parts of Jerusalem as well, including specific protests related to the upcoming property dispute verdict in Sheikh Jarrah, but those were not very clearly linked to the tension in the Old City itself; the Sheikh Jarrah saga has been dragging on for decades and it flares up in the news and Palestinian consciousness every few years, but it is clearly not a unique trigger for events.

Something got a lot more heated last week but the trigger is unclear. My best guess is that it was a combination of many factors: nightly Ramadan prayers with the usual exhortations against the Zionists, tension at Damascus Gate, street violence, the timing of the Sheikh Jarrah decision, Yom Yerushalayim and the expected provocations by the nutjobs in the parade - even preparations for the Palestinian observance of the Nakba. However, many of these kinds of things have happened in the past and not triggered this kind of rapid acceleration of events.

I suspect that less coincidental factors did indeed play a role. Hamas decided to get involved for several reasons, not least of which is the planned PLC elections in May that have been (again) indefinitely postponed. I suspect that they also see an opportunity given that Israel has not had a real government with a coherent strategy for more than a year now, so big initiatives (or decisions like allowing E Jerusalem Palestinians to vote in the elections) were essentially shelved. It's also possible that they read the tea leaves - there was a pretty good chance that you'd see a minority government (a) not run by Netanyahu and (b) supported, for the first time, by an Arab Israeli party. Neither of these things are in Hamas' interest and this fighting may have killed that option.

I suspect there's even more to it than that. But it's not as simple as saying 'it wasn't Sheikh Jarrah' or 'it was Hamas' plan all along'.

[Hazir]

Thanks for the explanation.

[Aimless]

Unbelievable that a corner case of the whole settler/eviction conflict seemed to blow up versus...any other example of settler extremism like Hebron, etc.

Why unbelievable? These events are contingent on hundreds or thousands of factors—and the feelings of individual human beings—and reactions are often very idiosyncratic. I don't think I've ever seen a single analysis—from any outside observer—about how this or that development is incomprehensible—or perfectly logical—that's ever felt like anything more than uninformative navel-gazing. It is what it is. What feels like an insignificant corner case to you is obviously being taken as something more important by regular Palestinians in the region. People frequently react to events in ways that we don't understand, but not everything that's incomprehensible to us is also unbelievable.

[Loki]

Unbelievable that a corner case of the whole settler/eviction conflict seemed to blow up versus...any other example of settler extremism like Hebron, etc.

Then again, the noble Martyrs of Al Aksa and Gaza have been stockpiling stones, firecrackers and rockets for some time preparing for this. Pandemic is waning in the area, Israel has made peace with more Arab neighbors, Hamas wasn't gonna wait for the never-coming elections so...here we are.

Hamas might be good at taking advantage at Palestinian rage, but it certainly isn't the one that causes it.

[RandBlade]

Hamas might be good at taking advantage at Palestinian rage, but it certainly isn't the one that causes it.

No there's an entire industry set up to spread hate and rage. Hardly a surprise this happened when preachers during Ramadan have been spreading hate against Israel.

IDF have gone into the Gaza Strip now.

One of the biggest shames of this is that Hamas have probably ensured Netenyahu survives. I was hoping he'd be gone soon.

[Loki]

No there's an entire industry set up to spread hate and rage. Hardly a surprise this happened when preachers during Ramadan have been spreading hate against Israel.

IDF have gone into the Gaza Strip now.

One of the biggest shames of this is that Hamas have probably ensured Netenyahu survives. I was hoping he'd be gone soon.

Do you really think Palestinians need that propaganda to hate Israel?

P.S. The most concerning events in this conflict - the rioting and lynching in mixed cities - is completely unrelated to Hamas actions.

[RandBlade]

Do they need it? No.

Does it help to boil up anger so it overflows now and not another time? Yes.

The rioting and lynching is extremely concerning, but I doubt that would have happened without the Hamas rockets and aggression etc

[Loki]

Do they need it? No.

Does it help to boil up anger so it overflows now and not another time? Yes.

The rioting and lynching is extremely concerning, but I doubt that would have happened without the Hamas rockets and aggression etc

The propaganda is constant. The violence is not. I.e., the propaganda can't be used to explain the timing of this violence. There's a lot of bad blood. The propaganda is less a cause than a result.

The rioting were a response to a heavy-handed police response, which was in turn used to quell protests brought about by the events in Jerusalem. The other rioting was a response to that rioting. Hamas certainly added fuel to the fire, but it also risked discrediting itself if it did nothing. The Hamas response was entirely predictable. Instead of looking at individual incidents, look at the conditions that trigger this much violence over those few incidents.

[Aimless]

The propaganda is constant. The violence is not. I.e., the propaganda can't be used to explain the timing of this violence. There's a lot of bad blood. The propaganda is less a cause than a result.

The rioting were a response to a heavy-handed police response, which was in turn used to quell protests brought about by the events in Jerusalem. The other rioting was a response to that rioting. Hamas certainly added fuel to the fire, but it also risked discrediting itself if it did nothing. The Hamas response was entirely predictable. Instead of looking at individual incidents, look at the conditions that trigger this much violence over those few incidents.

Much more satisfying to discuss the sparks than the tinder

[wiggin]

IDF have gone into the Gaza Strip now.

This is not accurate as of yet. There is cross border tank and artillery fire but no ground invasion yet. Frankly I'm not sure they have enough forces in position to do so.

[RandBlade]

This is not accurate as of yet. There is cross border tank and artillery fire but no ground invasion yet. Frankly I'm not sure they have enough forces in position to do so.

Twitter Link

IDF are reporting ground forces attacking now.

[Hazir]

Strictly speaking they are not.

[RandBlade]

Weird that they're Tweeting that they are.

Weird that they're Tweeting at all.

[Aimless]

Strictly speaking they are not.

Correct, at this point the ground attacks appear to consist of shelling. Probably not far off.

[Hazir]

OK should have been more precise : they aren't saying they are attacking from within the Gaza strip.

[Hazir]

Correct, at this point the ground attacks appear to consist of shelling. Probably not far off.

A little bit late but: eid Mubarak.

[Aimless]

I have no particular opinion of Tlaib as a politician or as a person, but her speech was remarkable; I wouldn't have expected to see something like this from a US legislator, in the House, just five years ago—not only wrt the subject but also wrt the personal approach, and the treatment of casual, institutional dehumanization. I expect reactions will focus on the demands for policy changes, but the human aspect merits the greatest attention.

(I have no idea who the twitter user posting the video is, he just happened to have the longest clip of the speech that I could find)

Twitter Link

A little bit late but: eid Mubarak.

I'm just waiting for the traditional surge in violence

[Lewkowski]

She's pretty trash.

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/rashi...-phrase-650990

[Loki]

It's good to have a diversity of views in Congress. I wouldn't want Tlaib's to represent the majority. But, her views are no more offensive than of those who try to outdo one another in praising violence and death.

[Aimless]

She's pretty trash.

https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/rashi...-phrase-650990

But Lewk, you're also trash

[RandBlade]

It's good to have a diversity of views in Congress. I wouldn't want Tlaib's to represent the majority. But, her views are no more offensive than of those who try to outdo one another in praising violence and death.

Seeking the elimination and destruction of the world's only Jewish state isn't offensive?

Oookay.

EDIT: In case that's not clear those who praise violence and death are offensive too, but one would hope nobody sensible would ever attempt to defend them by saying their views are no more offensive than of those who try to outdo one another in praising genocide.

[Steely Glint]

More than 67 Palestinians, including 16 children, have died since the start of the conflict on Monday, Palestinian health officials said. The rockets fired by Hamas and its Islamist ally, Islamic Jihad, killed at least six Israeli civilians, including a 5-year-old boy and one soldier.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/w...aza-hamas.html

The passive voice on this one, though.

[Aimless]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/w...aza-hamas.html

The passive voice on this one, though.

Guessing the discrepancy in this article (died vs. killed) is what Tlaib was referring to.

[Loki]

Seeking the elimination and destruction of the world's only Jewish state isn't offensive?

Oookay.

EDIT: In case that's not clear those who praise violence and death are offensive too, but one would hope nobody sensible would ever attempt to defend them by saying their views are no more offensive than of those who try to outdo one another in praising genocide.

You mean a Palestinian-American parroting a standard Palestinian phrase without thinking through the implication? Meanwhile, there are far more congressmen who are expressly against a Palestinian state and actively reward policies to that effect.

[RandBlade]

You mean a Palestinian-American parroting a standard Palestinian phrase without thinking through the implication? Meanwhile, there are far more congressmen who are expressly against a Palestinian state and actively reward policies to that effect.

According to that article, that phrase has not been used by mainstream Palestinian groups (quite rightly) since the Oslo Accords.

So yes if a politician chooses to parrot fascist phrases that seek to wipe out entire states then that is scummy.

[Loki]

According to that article, that phrase has not been used by mainstream Palestinian groups (quite rightly) since the Oslo Accords.

So yes if a politician chooses to parrot fascist phrases that seek to wipe out entire states then that is scummy.

What exactly is a mainstream Palestinian group? Hamas has the support of a plurality of Palestinians.

[RandBlade]

Hamas are a terrorist group advocating genocide, they should be beyond the pale.

If they're not, then yes she's scum.

[Being]

How do you tell the difference between a Palestinian Palestinian and an Israeli Palestinian?