I'll be interested to see if the Tory-Lib pact can actually carry their parties with them.
I'll be interested to see if the Tory-Lib pact can actually carry their parties with them.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
I doubt it, and I think the negotiations with Cameron are merely a face-saving operation for Clegg.Originally Posted by Steely Glint
Congratulations America
You're assuming that a Lib Dem-Labour pact would hold.
Hope is the denial of reality
Apprantly, Gordon phoned up Nick Clegg last night and was an utter arse. Nice move Gordon. Real smooth. We should have made you foreign sectary.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
No I am assuming that the Liberal leadership understands what the grassroots want; which is electoral reform and not cooperation at the price of giving up a principle. Clegg and his party will be ground to pieces in the election after a Cameron government.You're assuming that a Lib Dem-Labour pact would hold.
Congratulations America
Apparently Clegg told Brown he should "resign" which resulted in Brown "ranting" at Clegg
With the utter mess Brown has left the UK PLC if Clegg were to make electoral reform an absolute 'red line' that'd make him like Nero, fiddling while Rome burned. It'd also make Clegg a liar, he said before the election that the party with the most seats and votes would have the bigger mandate (the Tories) and categorically stated that electoral reform would not be a 'red line' before the election, when the first meme of "vote yellow get Brown" was being stated. If it falls apart because of that then Clegg lied during the election, clear and simple.
Todays Tories and Lib-Dems can work quite well together. After the last election under Howard and Kennedy, with Blair leading Labour, it would have been unimagineable; but today I think its very plausible. The mathematics make it almost inevitable to. The big question is whether the Lib-Dems will approve it, its not Clegg's decision alone.
I think the following compromises will be made:
Electoral reform compromise - my guess would be Tory plan for lower house (less MPs, equal size per constituency), Lib-Dem plan for upper house (full PR, no hereditaries, no appointees). Possibly LD plan for fixed-term elections.
No Inheritance Tax Cut (Tory plan gone), no Mansion Tax introduction (LD plan gone)
Yes to NI Tax increase being cancelled (LD's agreed to the 'desire' to do this anyway)
50% top end of tax won't be cut (Tory desire rather than commitment cancelleD)
Tax cuts will come from raising tax thresholds as we've discussed in this thread above (LD commitment, Tories agreed to the desire to do this)
Europe will probably not be an issue, any new treaties to have a referendum but there's no sign of anything and we're never going to join the euro now anyway for the next 5 years.
Spending cuts - both parties have similar targets
Child Trust Funds and Child Tax Credits for high earners abolished (Both Tory and LD plans)
Either the LDs in a formal coalition, with possibly up to 5 members of the cabinet:
Home Secretary (Clegg himself), Chief Secretary for the Treasury (Cable?), Transport Secretary) already offered apparently. LDs will surely have to get Scotland Secretary too if that post is not abolished instead.
Or more informal agreement with LD/Tory agreement on compromises first, but Tories the sole party officially in government with the LDs officially abstaining on key votes (Queens Speech and Budget) which will leave Tories with a majority over "others".
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Mathematical possibilities:
Northern Ireland seats will still be unofficially assigned on party lines:
Sinn Fein (5 seats) never take the positions, essentially their seats just don't exist
SDLP (3) are with Labour
DUP (8) are unofficially with the Conservatives
Alliance (1) will be with the Lib-Dems.
Tories have 1 safe seat yet to vote.
Therefore the final seat positions are:
Tory + DUP = 306+1+8 = 315
Labour + SDLP = 258+3 = 261
LD + Alliance = 57+1 = 58
Nationalists:
PC = 3
SNP = 6
Finally:
Green = 1 (Extreme Socialists, would ally if any with Labour who're to the right of them)
Speaker (neutral, votes with government whoever forms it AFAIK) = 1
Essentially majority target reduced from 326 to 323
Tory government with LD abstaining = 307 official (315 alliance) vs 270 opposition (278 if DUP oppose); 328 opposition inc. LDs+Alliance (336 inc LD+Alliance+DUP)
Tory + LD coalition = 364 official (373 alliances) vs 270 opposition (279 if both DUP and Alliance oppose)
Labour + LD coalition = 315 official (319 alliances) vs 324 opposition (328 if SDLP and alliance oppose)
Tory minority not likely to be stable government
Therefore Labour + LD would still be a minority government. You would need in order to avoid the Tory opposition bringing the government down a clean sweep of anti-Tory parties
Labour + LD + SDLP + Alliance + PC + SNP + Green = 329 vs 315
Would leave a majority of just 14 even with a 7 grouping coalition of all excluding Tories and DUP. If just 8 people rebelled from any party on any issue the vote would fail. That is not the way of a stable government. There is no way such a grouping could ever contemplate spending cuts or seriously tackle the deficit. The government would be doomed to fail and so would UK PLC.
Don't forget either that PR would destroy dozens and dozens of Labour seats, leave plenty of Labour MPs unemployed and destroy any chance of a majority Labour government ever again. There's no way 100% of Labour MPs will vote for PR, which means Labour rebels plus Tory opposition could result in no PR even with such a doomed rainbow coalition.
Why Labour won't support true PR even if they lie now and say the would:
Labour in Scotland - 42% votes 70% seats
Labour in Wales - 36% votes, 65% seats
Labour in North East - 44% vote, 86% seats.
These 3 regions represent over a third of their seat total across the nation. PR will cost half these MPs their jobs, not going to be popular with them. Clegg would appear a real idiot to betray his 'mandate' promises in the election, join with Labour, have an unstable coalition that achieves very little and still not get PR. Besides, all Labour are offering right now is AV. For a reason!
Nice partisan analysis of the situation. I am sure the Liberal Democrats will rush to support a Tory government that will show them selling out to the Tories on what has become alomst their raison d'etre; breaking the stranglehold of Labour and Conservatives on Britain. Especially if that government then will go on an austerity path which will wipe out whatever popularity they have left.
Also I don't understand how you can say Europe will not be an issue. Under which rock are you living? Within a matter of weeks a Liberal - Conservative government would be torn apart over the issue of reclaiming power from Brussels in return for adjusted rules for the eurozone (which are intrinsic part of the EU-constitution).
Congratulations America
The Tories would drop their (weak) plans to try to reclaim powers, the Lib-Dems have already dropped their plans to join the euro. Its a non-issue.
There is no majority in Parliament for a PR referendum. Labour don't want it. Nor have they offered it. If they form an alliance with Labour then mathematically it would be very unstable.
It would also provide an interesting case for the West Lothian Question. Plaid Cyrmu and the SNP traditionally refuse to vote on "English-only" votes, its just Labour that do. The Tories have an English majority as I said above and even including Scottish Labour MPs, a Lab/LD coalition could require the SNP/PC to have a working majority for English-only law.
I think what we're looking at here is a temporary alliance or non-aggression pact between the Tories and Lib-Dems to get some governing done between now and the next election, which will likely be inside a year. Long term issues like Europe can be deferred or brushed under the carpet for the duration.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Taking the best bits from the Tory and LD policies is something I could support - and I'm guessing you too Steely?
I would prefer an increase in the threshold of Income Tax to an Inheritance Tax cut. I've never had inheritance tax as a priority.
Interesting.
The LDs are having a meeting discussing the parties response to coalition calls. A protest was called outside by supporters of PR with a 25,000 petition calling for Proportion Representation.
Clegg came out to speak to protestors and his language was very nuanced. He said he agreed with their call for a "new kind of politics" and he wanted "a new kind of politics".
No word on PR, the absence of that in his speech was very noticeable.
And how would the Liberal Democrats survive that next election which everybody seems to expect within a year ? If Labour really is out of power next week, they will ditch Gordon Brown and all of a sudden things will look very different for the Liberal Democrats in a new election. And I'd dare say, also for the Conservatives.
Congratulations America
The grassroots is incapable of understanding the intricacies of electoral rules. They just know that they don't like the current system because it produced "bad" results. They're going to forget all about it in a year or two. And they certainly have no way to deciding which alternatives are better than others.
Hope is the denial of reality
I suggest you do a read up of how the Liberal Democrats decide on cooperating in any coalition, it won't be so easy to make a deal without sticking to the manifesto. It could go all the way down to a consultation of party members.
Then, there is hardly anybody to expect a Con - Lib coalition to last beyond the end of this year; voters forget, but they don't forget that fast that a party sold out wholesale. What we would see is a situation in which a year or so from today there would be a PM Harmon or Milliband in Downing street, with no chance in hell for the LibDems to even retain the seats they have today.
To survive a coalition the LibDems need PR, otherwise joining it is just political suicide.
Congratulations America
What makes you think there won't be an election a year from now regardless of what happens? The Lib Dems can need PR as much as they want, but that's not going to get them PR. Even Labour won't give it to them, so I really don't see what your point is.
Hope is the denial of reality
My point is that the LibDems should not make any deal that doesn't include PR or a serious overhaul of the political arrangement.
Congratulations America
They're hardly in a position to demand anything given how incompetent they are. No party is going to alter the political landscape just to stay in power for a year. And Labour wouldn't have enough seats even with the Lib Dems.
Hope is the denial of reality
Actually Labour would, as they have already offered. They also would get the support of SNP, PC and AP, bringing their total to 324 seats, throw in the one green MP and you're at 325 seats. Not a majority, but much much more than the Conservatives can muster. And yes, all of the parties mentioned would support a platform that promises PR.
FYI SF MP's have boycotted Parliament for as long as I can remember. So a Lab-Lib coalition would be totally viable for the time being.
Congratulations America
Do you realize the kind of financial promises Labour would have to make to get all those parties on board? Britain doesn't have a tradition of coalition politics. Getting all of those parties to simultaneously support Labour will be impossible.
Hope is the denial of reality
Read the news.
Congratulations America
I'm not convinced either of you have any idea what they fuck you're talking about, but Hazir has even less of an idea what the fuck he's talking about than Loki. That kind of coalition is pure fantasy.
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Oh typical Steely misread again so that he can go off on me again. I never said that a multi party coalition of that kind was going to happen. What I said was that a coalition of Liberals and Labour will have enough votes to be in a position that the Conservatives can't possibly outvote them IF they agree on PR, because then a whole host of smaller national parties will move into their column for that reason alone. Not to mention that these parties would be inclined to be supportive anyway because they are left of center.
What I did is the kind of bean counting that goes on right now in the UK. And I can assure you that if my bean counting was really as stupid as you make it out to be there already would have been a new occupant of Downing street. And his name would be Cameron.
Unlike you I am used to the way governments come about in a situation where no party has a majority.
Congratulations America
That kind of coalition would be a joke.
Firstly you're wrong in saying Labour support PR, Labour do not. A fair number of Labour MPs are on the record as saying they oppose PR and a number even after the election have already said they'd still oppose it.
As for a theoretical majority, Labour+LD+nationalists would barely be able to scrape a majority even with all of them on side. Throw in some unpopular decisions, trying to actually cut spending, while ensuring not one of the rainbow coalition actually rebels on anything at all . . . impossible! The 'usual suspects' of Labour rebels are not the ones who've lost their seats.
Even if somehow a referendum bill is passed and even if the coalition can struggle on making unpopular, difficult but necessary decisions, then the public will still have to actually approve the change. After this weekend I don't think its clear at all that the public will vote for permanent hung parliaments.
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There will be a new occuparant at Downing St and his name will be Cameron. Brown is just clinging on until the fat lady has finished singing.
Says the Lib Dem voter.
Hope is the denial of reality
AS IF any coalition government is going to make it past the year.
Congratulations America
I'm sorry* you have a problem with someone voting for the party they support in a safe Labour seat.Says the Lib Dem voter.
*lie
The light that once I thought compassion still casting shadows in your action
The words you shared were cold transactions that bring me to curse what you've done
When you're up there absorbed in greatness with such success you've grown complacent
I hope you scorch your many faces when you fly too close to the sun
Seems to me they are a bit too secretive about their conversations.
Congratulations America
In which case why should the Lib-Dems prop up a discredited and defeated party that still won't provide PR? It'll take more than a year to put through PR.
Apparently a deal looking likely between the Conservatives and Lib Dems is a "free vote" on PR in Parliament after the review into it. Quite clever because the vote will get the same result as if there'd been no Lib-Dem deal anyway. If the opposition to the Tories can muster a majority then that'll pass in a free vote, if they can't then they won't but no difference. LD gets their PR vote, Cons probably defeat it and if they don't get a say in what type of PR it is, LD's get seats in the Cabinet, Cons get a stable majority.
Both win.
There's a shock, hung parliament (what PR guarantees) ends up with secret behind-closed-doors deals rather than up-front agreements a significant plurality of voters chose. I'd never predict that!
For the LD the choice is between a party that has no intention to deliver on PR and a party that might.
On the secretive procedure; actually that's not the way it goes in most countries.In Holland typically you'll get blow by blow reports about the talks. The only surprises we sometimes get is who is appointed minister, because ministers need not be elected overhere. Actually, a MP who accepts an appointment by the Queen automatically loses his seat in parliament.
Congratulations America
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