Deadline tomorrow: should I buy BP stock?

[Dreadnaught]

You all think I was talking about a gamble with thousands of dollars? I wouldn't take a risk like that. $300 is plenty of cash too, in my opinion.

I considered selling today, but my dad accurately predicted the stock would fall back as others made short-term gains. He suggested I do the same, but I'm going to hold for a longer term and see where things go.

On the plus side, my post-indictment purchase of Goldman is catching up.

Fuzzy- Wait, so can Congress make a law specifically awarding a contract to a particular company or somesuch? I guess it's not categorically unconstitutional, I just always assumed it's frowned upon.

[Nessus]

You

all

Everybody

[littlelolligagged]

Not Penny's boat!

[Nessus]

PENNAH

[littlelolligagged]

Des!

[LittleFuzzy]

Fuzzy- Wait, so can Congress make a law specifically awarding a contract to a particular company or somesuch? I guess it's not categorically unconstitutional, I just always assumed it's frowned upon.

Technically yes, they can, but not in the way I think you mean*. This isn't awarding a contract though. Congress is saying *or Congress-critters want it to say, anyway* that the US government is not going to be doing any more of a particular type of business with BP for a while, because it doesn't appreciate BP's fuck-ups in that type of business. Congress *nor the Interior, using Congress' ceded authority* is under no obligation to grant access rights to particular entities. The courts, partly relying on the equal protection clause and partly relying on select pieces of Congressional legislation *which can't bind subsequent acts of Congress* have declared that the government can't engage in invidious discrimination in who it chooses to do business with/grant licenses too/etc. but no court, not even the incredibly laissez-faire due-process nuts back during the 1880s-1930s, would try to suggest this is invidious.

*If Congress were to award contracts the way this is happening, it would be much more likely to go to the courts and be struck down because it's a lot more likely to find a party that might have been baselessly discriminated against. It creates a much larger pool of entities which are potentially injured by that process.

[RandBlade]

Rand, its clearly context based and in Dread's (apparent) context, no, it isn't. Or at the very least it shouldn't. Maybe he's supporting a nasty coke habit and there's not a lot of money lying around, I dunno.

Why?

How do you know how much Dread earns? How do you know how much Dread spends? How much is his rent? If he is living in Manhattan then for a young person your rent and other fixed costs can leave you with not-so-much of your income left as disposable income. I know that I am not a low-income earner but right now while trying to buy a house after I've paid all my necessary bills like rent/fuel/tax/food etc then £200 ($300) would be my disposable income for a few weeks.

You obviously got nothing out of my analogy, especially since in your reply example you're having me bet on extremely unlikely events. You're not betting on the stock market, you're betting on the actions of people. BP stock opened this morning around $39, and now its at ~ $37. Why is that? Because a lot of people who saw it close around $38.92 yesterday, which it rose to likely in response to successful capping of the well, expected it to climb a few cents more, and then they likely cashed out on the stock. These are not things that are extremely unlikely or hard to foresee.

Betting is betting and odds are odds. I never said you were gambling at evens (its rare to do that), I said you were gambling and you're indeed saying you're betting on people. Well guess what, betting on people is gambling. Case closed.

You're honestly telling me that this would be hard to predict, that BP's stock would go up in response to a successful well capping, and that if it went up high enough, would then take a small hit as people sold off BP stock attempting either to cut their losses if they invested before the disaster, or make some money if they invested in the last few months?

No. I never said it was unlikely, I said it was gambling.

You're betting on:

1: The capping being successful.
2: People reacting as you predicted.
3: The change in share price being sufficient to cover all your costs involved in both buying and then re-selling the shares, plus any tax paid.
4: There being a further sufficient change in share price to actually make a profit to make it worth your while doing it in the first place and cover the risks of any of these not happening.
5: The likelihood of capping being successful not already being factored into the share price by other investors before you.

That's gambling. There is a percentage possibility that any of those could have gone wrong.

Mathematically. since the cap worked perfectly, better than hoped, we can say this was the best case scenario. Dread made a profit of $20 from a $300 stake, that was a profit of 1/15. Even if the odds of all this happening (including it working better than expected) were even 90% then odds were against you. If the odds of it all working were 95% then the odds were in your favour but only just. That is the essence of gambling. Unless what happened was 100% guaranteed to happen, that is gambling.

[EyeKhan]

I know that I am not a low-income earner but right now while trying to buy a house after I've paid all my necessary bills like rent/fuel/tax/food etc then £200 ($300) would be my disposable income for a few weeks.

Is that after you add to savings?

[RandBlade]

Is that after you add to savings?

Savings? Right now I'm trying to make sure I can cover all bills and live decently.

Still some "necessary bills" right now are what would normally be savings. EG right now we need to buy a fridge, washing machine, bed, sofa suite etc, etc, etc - the full furniture for a house while paying for legals etc for the purchase while still spending rent on our current rental.

Not sure about the prices in the US but I could definitely cover getting a good washing machine for $300.

[wiggin]

I'm surprised, RB - no retirement savings? We're currently covering two rentals and student loans, but we still put away over $1000 a month. I guess the house sorta counts, though.

[RandBlade]

I'm surprised too, I always planned on putting away retirement savings ASAP.

OTOH I've already paid off my student loans in full (except the government-based one) and am trying to start put away for equity. I left uni with close to £20k of commercial debt and now I don't owe any of that. I'm currently viewing that and saving for retirement as two sides of the same coin: not spending every penny as you earn it.

I figured paying off a loan I was paying high(er) interest on was more valuable than savings you'd earn a lower-rate on. My big challenge atm is trying to reach the other side of this purchase OK and then I'll decide whether to start a pension account or make overpayments my mortgage. Again similar logic, if I could be mortgage-free then I'd be able to make big savings later on.

[EyeKhan]

Savings? Right now I'm trying to make sure I can cover all bills and live decently.

Still some "necessary bills" right now are what would normally be savings. EG right now we need to buy a fridge, washing machine, bed, sofa suite etc, etc, etc - the full furniture for a house while paying for legals etc for the purchase while still spending rent on our current rental.

Not sure about the prices in the US but I could definitely cover getting a good washing machine for $300.

Oh, you just bought a house? Starter home? Right out of college I spent several years saving for a home down payment and paying down my wife's student loans and credit card debt. It took years before I was able to save seriously, though I always put money in my 401k, up to the company matching limit at least....

[RandBlade]

Yeah, Amanda (my partner) and I are in the process of buying a home. We've exchanged contracts now so kind of "past the point of no return"

Its a new build though so right now we're waiting for it to be completed. Every few days we're going to check it out though, they've finished the bricks and mortar and have put the roof up which is great as it means they can work even in bad weather now, no internal walls but they've put the studs up (wooden frames the walls will go up against. Can see the gas and electrics start to be finished too . House is due to be completed 10/9 (10 Sep) and then a few weeks to get the inspectors in to give approval to the home meeting standards then we can move in probably end of Sep. Was originally due for Nov but due to a run of very good weather its shaved 2 months off the construction time .

Its a 3 bedroom house which isn't bad when its just the two of us.

[Lor]

Yeah, Amanda (my partner) and I are in the process of buying a home. We've exchanged contracts now so kind of "past the point of no return"

Its a new build though so right now we're waiting for it to be completed. Every few days we're going to check it out though, they've finished the bricks and mortar and have put the roof up which is great as it means they can work even in bad weather now, no internal walls but they've put the studs up (wooden frames the walls will go up against. Can see the gas and electrics start to be finished too . House is due to be completed 10/9 (10 Sep) and then a few weeks to get the inspectors in to give approval to the home meeting standards then we can move in probably end of Sep. Was originally due for Nov but due to a run of very good weather its shaved 2 months off the construction time .

Its a 3 bedroom house which isn't bad when its just the two of us.

Without derailing Dreadsie's thread to much:

Best of luck on the move when it happens RB, i'm currently trying to save up a big enough deposit to buy a house with my partner. Savings are on hold until I have the deposit i desire (or they desire i should say). Unfortunately i started renting somewhere first as i needed to get the missus out of her mothers home before she (mother) poisoned her (missus) with her theatrical antics but i do wish i saved during my younger years when living at home but hindsight et all.

[EyeKhan]

Yeah, Amanda (my partner) and I are in the process of buying a home. We've exchanged contracts now so kind of "past the point of no return"

Its a new build though so right now we're waiting for it to be completed. Every few days we're going to check it out though, they've finished the bricks and mortar and have put the roof up which is great as it means they can work even in bad weather now, no internal walls but they've put the studs up (wooden frames the walls will go up against. Can see the gas and electrics start to be finished too . House is due to be completed 10/9 (10 Sep) and then a few weeks to get the inspectors in to give approval to the home meeting standards then we can move in probably end of Sep. Was originally due for Nov but due to a run of very good weather its shaved 2 months off the construction time .

Its a 3 bedroom house which isn't bad when its just the two of us.

I've never built new. Seems like a headache. . . . Not sure how the housing market is over there, but here it seems you miss the good 'deals' by building.

[Dreadnaught]

Now I'm in the red on BP. Whoops.

[RandBlade]

I've never built new. Seems like a headache. . . .

Buying old is a headache too. We actually had agreed a purchase with a previous property (an old one), paid for the surveyor for the mortgage and the bank's surveyor turned around and said it wasn't worth what we had agreed to pay so the deal fell through. Plus the current owner kept trying to mess us around right until it fell through (we nearly rescued the deal but the owner kept being a prat).

Not sure how the housing market is over there, but here it seems you miss the good 'deals' by building.

Really? The developers are the ones desperate to sell over here, especially in the current climate.

Plus you get better deals because there's so many people who won't buy new it deflates the price. Sure our estate will be a bit of a building site for a while even after we move in (may take 2 years before the properties that will be opposite ours get finished) but it'll be really nice. Already looks really nice the bits that have been done. Once its complete the property should almost automatically gain in value which will be a nice bit for us. Plus by buying early we could essentially pick any property on the street (so picked the far corner which has the benefits of a much bigger garden for the same price). Furthermore we know there'll be no work required for years while all the appliances are brand new. Even the tiles that the builders will put up were picked out (from a range) by us.

There's no way I could afford a 3 bedroom semi-detached house with an en-suite and a nice corner garden on the budget we were looking at.

Dread: Sorry to be derailing your thread and sorry you're in the red. Thought that might happen with some of the news out, its going to be a bit of a yo-yo. Won't be surprised if you hold onto it if it doesn't skip between black and red a few more times each yet.

[wiggin]

I'm curious what the news about the $7 billion asset sale will do to BP's prospects in the short to medium term...

[Illusions]

Now I'm in the red on BP. Whoops.

Told you not to now this smiley is in the red...

[EyeKhan]

Rand: What's semi-detached mean???

Also, I've bought old (1939) and newish (2002). I think all things considered I like the newer house much better for a variety of reasons.

[GGT]

I think UK semi-detached means like a US garden townhouse, where two units share a common wall and part of their roofing (?) Sometimes we call it a duplex.

Bp ----- kind of a mess with the Lockerbie bomber release and Libyan oil deals. Their reputation is horrible right now.

[Lor]

I think UK semi-detached means like a US garden townhouse, where two units share a common wall and part of their roofing (?) Sometimes we call it a duplex.

[EyeKhan]

I think UK semi-detached means like a US garden townhouse, where two units share a common wall and part of their roofing (?) Sometimes we call it a duplex.

Bp ----- kind of a mess with the Lockerbie bomber release and Libyan oil deals. Their reputation is horrible right now.

What happened to the Lockerbie Bomber Guy? Wasn't he supposed to be on Death's Door and that's why they let him out? I don't recall hearing that he died.

[Flixy]

Expected to live another ten years. That definitely seems dodgy.

[RandBlade]

Very weird on the Lockerbie Bomber but I think its just lefties being lefties rather than nefarious.

We kind of have 3 types of classification: Semi-detached (share 1 wall etc), detached (fully independent) and terraced (loads of houses in one row all connected).

My house is more officially classified as "End-mews" rather than semi-detached as a proper semi is with 2 homes each connected, mine is the end house on a mews (mini-terrace).

[littlelolligagged]

I remember your house plans.

Your entire upstairs would fit in my bedroom.

Hell, in a couple of weeks your entire upstairs will fit into my guest bedroom (that won't actually have a bed in it)