The Extinction of Religion; Predicted in Nine Nations

[Timbuk2]

This morning's most-read online Beeb article is ...

Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says
Beeb

A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.

The data reflect a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.

The team's mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.

The result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.

Nonlinear dynamics is invoked to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.

One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.

At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the "utility" of speaking one instead of another.

"The idea is pretty simple," said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement.

"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility," he told BBC News.

"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there's some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not."

The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.

"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there's been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%," Dr Wiener said.

The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the "non-religious" category.

They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.

And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.

"I think it's a suggestive result," Dr Wiener said.

"It's interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.

"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out."

Ireland? Really?

UK 10 year census is running at the moment, very interested to see the religious non-affiliation results.

[RandBlade]

I think eventually yes, although not included in this survey I think the spanner in the works in the UK is immigration. Poor immigrants are more likely to be religious than native Brits.

[Dreadnaught]

The thing is this is a relatively recent trend that could easily be reversed, much like demographic trends. A few generations of declining religious affiliation can blow back with extremely strong religious affiliation.

[Timbuk2]

Nah, I don't see it Dread. Religion is more than a trend. It's been with us since man first had eyes to look at the sky with and a brain with which to think "coo, innit big".

[Ominous Gamer]

Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study says

One can only hope, but shit always gets worse before it gets better. Lets hope what we're having to experience now is the death call of religious fanaticism.

[Draco]

The thing is this is a relatively recent trend that could easily be reversed, much like demographic trends. A few generations of declining religious affiliation can blow back with extremely strong religious affiliation.

You make a good point though. I've noticed this myself, but the more people distance themselves from their 'roots' the more they'll want to go back to them. People generally like the idea of having an 'identity', and many regard their religion or culture as forming the core of theirs. Stray from this and you're thrown into a different world that is foreign/alien to you, so you go back to something that you know.

I think this generally applies more so with people from non Anglo-Saxon backgrounds. I was watching a talk show here on Australian tv a few months ago, and it was about the whole 'burqa' issue. Anyway there were a few women there, who proudly claimed to be second/third generation born in Australia, and whilst their parents weren't very religious, they put it upon themselves to ascert their 'identity' (even though they denied it was about their identity, when it's obvious that it is) by wearing the burqa and being more Islamic than their parents. I've noticed similar instances with other religions/ethnicities. I think the whole stick to your culture/religion for the sake of having an identity is silly and irrational to do. It's something that was thought up by people however long ago, and you decide to revert to another time, or even to continue to hold onto it. I mean, why stop there? Why don't we all start wearing rags or animal skin, live in caves, point and grunt at the moon then go back to our little fire.

[Nessus]

[Catgrrl]

One can only hope this will spread throughout the world.

[Veldan Rath]

The thing is, even if religion goes bye bye, something else will take its place.

Some folks need/want to be led by the nose.

[Catgrrl]

This is true. There is always some sort of "idol worship" to keep the masses in line.

[Ominous Gamer]

perfect word?
the replacement would be science

what we're going to end up with?
corporate control government

[RandBlade]

The thing is, even if religion goes bye bye, something else will take its place.

Sport, celebrity gossip ...

[Loki]

I'd hate to state the obvious, but you can't make any conclusions about factors that lead to a decline in religious observance without examining countries where there's both a high and low level of religiosity...

[RandBlade]

The survey included Ireland and Czech Republic so that's been done.

[Nessus]

perfect word?
the replacement would be science

what we're going to end up with?
corporate control government

Going to?

[wiggin]

All I have to say is this:

http://xkcd.com/605/

[Dreadnaught]

[Loki]

The survey included Ireland and Czech Republic so that's been done.

The only looked at countries where religiosity has been decreasing. It's like only looking at healthy people when trying to determine what causes good health.

[Nessus]

All I have to say is this:

http://xkcd.com/605/

Uh

The joke is how easy it is to fit a linear function on two points of data

What kind of reverse-Enlightenment event are you thinking might stop the lessening religiosity in industrialized nations? Even the invention of Evangelical Christianity didn't so much capture a nation through religious fervor, but helped out neo-con fuck-wads.

[Ziggy Stardust]

It'll be replaced by New Age crap with their positive energy and couch placement shenanigans.

At least religion has nice looking buildings instead of plastic bullshit.

[Nessus]

Which is why we have to eradicate magical thinking from culture altogether.

[littlelolligagged]

No, Zigz, the plan is to replace it with scientology.

[Ziggy Stardust]

Which is why we have to eradicate magical thinking from culture altogether.

Not sure that was intentional

No, Zigz, the plan is to replace it with scientology.

Oh great. Plastic Xenu action figures

[wiggin]

Uh

The joke is how easy it is to fit a linear function on two points of data

What kind of reverse-Enlightenment event are you thinking might stop the lessening religiosity in industrialized nations? Even the invention of Evangelical Christianity didn't so much capture a nation through religious fervor, but helped out neo-con fuck-wads.

I honestly don't have any idea whether there will be a reversal of the trend or not, and what event might precipitate it. Nor do I care. What I objected to was the catchy headline of the piece, suggesting that religion would be completely eliminated from these countries. The arguments are based on an unfounded extrapolation and a pretty flimsy set of reasoning.

I have no doubt that religion is becoming less important in many parts of the world. I am even willing to agree that there might be good sociological reasons for this trend to continue indefinitely. Yet becoming 'extinct'? That's just a way to make headlines. It's showmanship, and it's wrong.

[Nessus]

I honestly don't have any idea whether there will be a reversal of the trend or not, and what event might precipitate it. Nor do I care. What I objected to was the catchy headline of the piece, suggesting that religion would be completely eliminated from these countries. The arguments are based on an unfounded extrapolation and a pretty flimsy set of reasoning.

I have no doubt that religion is becoming less important in many parts of the world. I am even willing to agree that there might be good sociological reasons for this trend to continue indefinitely. Yet becoming 'extinct'? That's just a way to make headlines. It's showmanship, and it's wrong.

*shrugs* For-profit reporting has a lot of incentives to engage in showmanship.

It is a sad fact that utterly eliminating religion is practically impossible in any reasonable time frame, but can't we at least celebrate positive progress?

[wiggin]

*shrugs* For-profit reporting has a lot of incentives to engage in showmanship.

It is a sad fact that utterly eliminating religion is practically impossible in any reasonable time frame, but can't we at least celebrate positive progress?

Social science reporting is almost worse than hard science reporting, and that's saying something. I honestly want to strangle most science writers.

That being said, the article may have sensationalized the findings in the paper, but the paper did posit an 'all-to-all' model in their analysis based on steady state conditions. I think that's patently ridiculous for religious affiliation because the reality is far more complex than the model. Then again, I suppose they really aren't arguing that steady state conditions will be reached, but rather that the dynamics of how we move towards a steady state condition given a set of incentives can be modeled on certain theories. *shrugs*

The paper doesn't really say anything new; they just present a way of thinking about known demographic changes. Religion is not going to 'go extinct'.

[Nessus]

It's social science, what did you expect?



(Fair enough)

[Loki]

Social science reporting is almost worse than hard science reporting, and that's saying something. I honestly want to strangle most science writers.

That being said, the article may have sensationalized the findings in the paper, but the paper did posit an 'all-to-all' model in their analysis based on steady state conditions. I think that's patently ridiculous for religious affiliation because the reality is far more complex than the model. Then again, I suppose they really aren't arguing that steady state conditions will be reached, but rather that the dynamics of how we move towards a steady state condition given a set of incentives can be modeled on certain theories. *shrugs*

The paper doesn't really say anything new; they just present a way of thinking about known demographic changes. Religion is not going to 'go extinct'.

I don't think that's a fair criticism. The reality is always more complex than a model. If a model was nearly as complex as reality, it would be unwieldy and do little more than describe the world. You do have an excellent point about extrapolating outside of a sample. On a bigger level, I think this is like technical analysis in finance. Looking at trends is fun and all, but if you don't know the reasons for those trends, you should be prepared for a lot of egg on your face if you try to make a prediction about the future.

[Nessus]

If a model was nearly as complex as reality, it would be unwieldy and do little more than describe the world.

I'm missing something; what is the purpose of any model but to describe the world within some accuracy parameters?

[wiggin]

I don't think that's a fair criticism. The reality is always more complex than a model. If a model was nearly as complex as reality, it would be unwieldy and do little more than describe the world. You do have an excellent point about extrapolating outside of a sample. On a bigger level, I think this is like technical analysis in finance. Looking at trends is fun and all, but if you don't know the reasons for those trends, you should be prepared for a lot of egg on your face if you try to make a prediction about the future.

AFAIK there is no set of historical data that follows their model to steady-state conditions. Thus, making claims that the model does more that describe a potential reason for the observed dynamics in the unsteady case is unscientific. I'm not sure the paper's authors made that claim (though their analysis certainly is suggestive of it), but the article covering it most definitely did.

I love modeling; I think it's a very useful tool. Yet a too-simple model can have just as many flaws as an overly complex one. I feel that this model was far too simple to really understand what's happening with religious affiliation in parts of the world, and any extrapolations from there are extremely suspect.