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Thread: Geithner vs. DeMint

  1. #1

    Default Geithner vs. DeMint

    Honestly, I couldn't resist posting this. If DeMint is the best argumentation the Tea Party can put forth, I'm sorely disappointed. We have serious deficit and debt issues, but his suggestions are grossly irresponsible, and Geithner was right to put him in his place.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/...on-debt-limit/

    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pushed back against calls from a group of Republican lawmakers to prioritize paying interest on debt and cut spending instead of raising the debt ceiling. Here is the full text of his letter and the full text of the original letter Geithner is responding to:

    Dear Senator DeMint:

    I am writing in response to your letter of May 23, 2011, regarding the statutory debt limit. President Obama is strongly committed to restoring fiscal responsibility, and he has put forward a specific framework and set in motion a process to work with both parties to accomplish this critically important objective. Although agreement has not yet been reached, we have made progress toward that objective, and I welcome the statements by leaders of both parties making clear that the debt limit must be increased in order to protect America’s creditworthiness.

    The debate over the debt limit can seem esoteric, but a failure to resolve it in the near term would have painful implications for people in every walk of American life. It would have a serious impact on members of the Armed Forces who depend on paychecks to feed and house their families. Social Security recipients who subsist on their monthly benefits, veterans who rely on the government for their retirement and health care needs, and small business owners or employees who provide goods and services to the country.

    In your letter, you suggest that the debt limit should not be raised, and instead the federal debt be “capped” at the current limit. You further propose that after the government’s borrowing authority id exhausted in August, the United States should for some indefinite period pay only the interest on its debt, while stopping or delaying payment of a broad swath of other commitments the country has made under the law.

    I have expressed my concerns about this idea before, but I will restate them to be clear: this “prioritization” proposal advocates a radical and deeply irresponsible departure from the commitments by Presidents of both parties, throughout American history, to honor all of the commitments our Nation has made.

    The debt limit applies to past decisions of Congress. Increasing the debt limit is necessary to allow the United State to honor obligations previously authorized and appropriated by Congress. You explained this well in 2010 when you said:

    You don’t have much choice if you charge something on your credit card. You have to pay it, and that’s effectively what this debt limit is … we’ve already spent the money. The question is now, do we shut down the government, or do we fund what we’ve already done.

    Increasing the limit does not increase the obligations we have as a Nation; it simply permits the Treasury to fund those obligations Congress has already established. As James A. Baker III, Secretary of the Treasury under President Reagan, informed Congress in 1987:

    I should stress that defaulting on already outstanding, validly incurred obligations has far graver effects than halting operations of the Government when spending authority is allowed to lapse, such as when there is a delay in action on appropriations. A failure to pay what is already due will cause certain and serious harm to our credit, financial markets and our citizens; it is not remotely similar to a lapse in authority to incur new obligations. (Emphasis in original.)

    The statutory debt limit is not and never has been, as you argue, a “budget enforcement mechanism” that can be used to implement spending reductions by selectively defaulting on obligations previously approved by Congress. Our Constitution provides that “No Money shall be drawn from the Treasury but in Consequence of Appropriations made by Law.” When Congress determines that certain commitments in the law should be altered or terminated, those decisions must be effectuated through enactment of legislation, not by attempting to coerce the Treasury to renege on existing legal commitments.

    Even if the idea of “prioritization” were not so unwise, it would not be a mere exercise in “belt tightening,” as you suggest. The United States in now required to borrow approximately 40 cents for every dollar of expenditures. Your proposal would require cutting roughly 40 percent of all government payments. These deep cuts would be felt by all Americans, and they would risk throwing the economy back into recession.

    You are also mistaken when you state that the Treasury has “prioritized” payments in the past. This is false. Never has the Treasury failed to meet any obligation as a result of a debt limit impasse, nor has Treasury ever “prioritized” payments. Congress has never failed to raise the debt limit when necessary. It is true that there have been failures at time to enact appropriations legislation, and this has caused temporary government shutdowns. Specifically, the 1995-1996 furloughs and suspensions of programs you refer to were caused by appropriations lapses, not a failure to raise the debt limit. But as Secretary Baker explained, there is no comparison in either cause or effect between a shutdown and a failure to increase the debt limit.

    At its core, your letter is based on an untested and unacceptably risky assumption: that if the United State were to continue to pay interest on its debt — yet failed to pay legally required obligations to its citizens, servicemen and women, and businesses — there would be no adverse market reaction and no damage to the full faith and credit of the United States. Again, this idea is starkly at odds with the judgment of every previous Administration, regardless of party, that has faced debt limit impasses.

    “Prioritization” also fails to account for how payments on principal would be made if investors were to lose confidence in U.S. creditworthiness. In August of this year, for example, more than $500 billion in U.S. Treasury debt will mature. Under normal circumstances, investors who hold Treasuries purchase new Treasury securities when the debt matures, permitting the United States to pay the principal on this maturing debt. Yet in the scenario you advocate, in which the United State would be defaulting on a broad range of its other obligations, there is no guarantee that investors would continue to re-invest in new Treasury securities. In fact, some market participants have already indicated that they would be disinclined to do so. As one of the major ratings agencies concluded in a recent report, failure to pay non-debt obligations “would signal sever financial distress and potentially imminent debt default,” prompting the U.S. sovereign rating to be place on “Rating Watch Negative.”

    If investors chose not to purchase a sufficient volume of new Treasury securities, the United States would be required to pay the principal on maturing debt, and not merely the interest, out of available cash. Yet the Treasury would be unable to make these principal payments without the continued confidence of market participants willing to buy new Treasury securities. Your proposal assumes markets would be unconcerned by our failure to pay other obligations. But if this assumption proved incorrect, then the United States would be forced to default on its debt.

    I understand that you have a different view of what would happen if the United States were unable, for the first time in its history, to meet its legal obligations. Nevertheless, I hope we can all agree that we should not and must not gamble with the full faith and credit of the United States. The consequences of miscalculation are too grave. The full faith and credit of the United States is too precious an asset to risk. If you are wrong in your prediction, to quote then-Secretary Baker, “Future generations of Americans would have to pay dearly for this grave breach of a 200-year old trust.”

    Ultimately, the notion of “prioritizing” payments is futile because the debt limit must be increased regardless of which spending path is adopted. There is no credible budget plan under which a debt limit increase can be avoided. In addition, a failure to enact a timely increase in the limit would have the perverse effect of increasing the government’s borrowing costs and worsening our fiscal challenges.

    For all of these reasons, the idea of “prioritization” has been rejected by every President and Secretary of the Treasury who have considered it. It is unwise, unworkable, unacceptably risky, and unfair to the American people. There is no alternative to enactment of a timely increase in the debt limit. As President Reagan wrote in 1983:

    The country now possesses the strongest credit in the world. The full consequence of a default — or even the serious prospect of default — by the United States are impossible to predict and awesome to contemplate. Denigration of the full faith and credit of the United States would have substantial effects on the domestic financial markets and on the value of the dollar in exchange markets. The Nation can ill afford to allow such a result. The risks, the costs, the disruptions, and the incalculable damage lead me to but one conclusion: the Senate must pass the legislation before the Congress adjourns.

    I appreciate your attention to this important issue and I look forward to working with you and other Members of Congress in the weeks ahead.

    Sincerely, Timothy F. Geithner

    The following is the full text of the letter sent by Republicans:

    Dear Mr. Secretary,

    In light of your recent public comments conflating a decision not to raise the federal debt ceiling with outright default on the United States’ debt obligations, we write seeking clarity about the administration’s position. At issue is the stubborn fact that ultimate responsibility to use available Treasury funds to honor the debt obligations of the United States falls on you as Secretary of the Treasury. We believe it is irresponsible and harmful for you to sow the seeds of doubt in the market regarding the full faith and credit of the United States and ask that you set the record straight – that you will use all available Treasury funds necessary to prevent default while Congress addresses the looming debt crisis.

    As you know, capping the federal debt at $14.29 trillion would not, in and of itself, lead to default. The Treasury takes in more than enough money from taxpayers to cover interest payments on the national debt. According to the Congressional Budget Office, tax revenue is estimated to be $2.23 trillion in Fiscal Year 2011 while net interest payments will only amount to $213 billion. Even if the debt ceiling remains where it is, there will be more than enough money in the Treasury to make the government’s debt payments, thereby avoiding default.

    And yet, your recent public statements suggest you believe the opposite. On January 6, you wrote to Majority Leader Harry Reid that, “Failure to raise the limit would precipitate a default by the United States.” Senator Patrick Toomey corrected this misstatement and introduced legislation, the Full Faith and Credit Act, which would statutorily guarantee prioritized payment of our debt obligations in the event of reaching the debt ceiling.

    This proposal, which would protect the United States from default, you oppose.

    In your February 3 letter to Sen. Toomey, you compare Sen. Toomey’s proposal to an analogous decision by an average citizen:

    “A homeowner could decide to ‘prioritize’ and continue paying monthly mortgage payments, while opting to cease paying other obligations, such as car payments, insurance premiums, student loan and credit card payments, utilities, and so forth. Although the mortgage would be paid, the damage to that homeowner’s creditworthiness would be severe.”

    But of course, making necessary payments on debts, like a home mortgage, a credit card, a car, or a student loan, is different from other personal spending. The consequences of missing those payments are truly dire – default, bankruptcy, repossession, and eviction. But they are not at all the same thing as belt-tightening and prioritizing when times are tight. In the same way, cutting spending programs, reducing the federal workforce, and prioritizing payments to vendors and contractors is not the same thing as sovereign default.

    The Treasury Department suggests that efforts to prioritize debt payments would bring about “catastrophic economic consequences.” Yet, this argument ignores the historical record. As you are well aware, the Treasury had to manage the nation’s finances in the past when the debt ceiling was reached. In 1995-1996, for example, the Department prioritized certain payments – including debt service. During this period, hundreds of thousands of federal employees were furloughed and many programs were temporarily suspended as a result of the two government shutdowns that occurred. And yet, this prioritization did not result in default on our publicly held debt nor did it cause the “catastrophic economic consequences” the administration predicts.

    Unfortunately, Washington has shown time and again that it is perfectly content to spend money on whatever suits its whims. That is why the debt limit exists in the first place – to restrict the government’s profligate spending and borrowing impulses and so protect the citizens responsible for paying it all back.

    We believe the time has come to employ this particular budget enforcement mechanism to finally force Congress to address the looming fiscal crisis, cut spending, reform entitlements, implement spending caps, and pass a balanced budget constitutional amendment before considering any increase in the federal debt ceiling. These are the contours of the debate before the American people this spring and summer.

    In the event of reaching the debt limit in the course of that debate, the decision of whether to use available Treasury funds to honor the United States’ debt obligations – and prevent the catastrophe of default – would ultimately fall to you. Recent comments conflating debt service with other spending notwithstanding, the markets, the courts, and the American people know differently.

    And so we write today asking for your assurance that, as Treasury Secretary, you will not continue to encourage uncertainty as to whether or not the U.S. government will default on its publicly held debt by failing to use the Treasury’s sufficient funds to make necessary payments on the United States’ debt obligations. Such uncertainty could cause the markets to doubt the full faith and credit of the United States.

    Sincerely, U.S. Senators Richard Burr (R-North Carolina), Tom Coburn (R-Oklahoma), Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi), DeMint, Orin Hatch (R-Utah), Mike Johanns (R-Nebraska), Ron Johnson (R-Wisconsin), Jim Inhofe (R-Oklahoma), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), Rand Paul (R-Kentucky), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Jim Risch (R-Idaho), John Thune (R-South Dakota), Pat Toomey (R-Pennsylvania), David Vitter (R-Louisiana), Roger Wicker (R-Mississippi)

  2. #2
    Can't say that their argument is any worse than of those who claim we can maintain a trillion dollar deficit for the foreseeable future.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Can't say that their argument is any worse than of those who claim we can maintain a trillion dollar deficit for the foreseeable future.
    That's not what Geithner is pushing - he's just saying it's not the Treasury's job to 'manage' a default on US government obligations, but rather Congress' job to make sure our obligations are paid for, either by borrowing or revenue. DeMint's idea amounts to a default, which is definitely worse than a largish deficit (though obviously a smaller deficit is most definitely a good idea).

    I'm also pretty disappointed with the negotiations in general. The GOP insistence on zero revenue increases is frankly unmanageable, and the Dem avoidance of serious entitlement reform means that deep spending cuts are going to the wrong things. But this Tea Party rhetoric is just batshit crazy.

  4. #4
    And my point is that the position of those who are negotiating with the Republicans is just as dumb as the position of the Tea Partyers. Though I do have to say that the idiocy of the Tea Partyers would lead to short-term problems; the stance of the other side would lead to problems that will last for decades to come.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    And my point is that the position of those who are negotiating with the Republicans is just as dumb as the position of the Tea Partyers. Though I do have to say that the idiocy of the Tea Partyers would lead to short-term problems; the stance of the other side would lead to problems that will last for decades to come.
    I don't equate the GOP with the TP movement. I think those who are self-identified TPers have gotten themselves stuck by their loud and frankly stupid positions, while most of the more measured heads in the GOP realize there will be a compromise on taxes and entitlements and such. The only issue is that the TPers take the headlines. At least I desperately hope this is the case.

    I'm startled you think 'those negotiating with Republicans' (presumably you mean Democratic congressional leaders and the administration) think we can 'maintain a trillion dollar deficit for the foreseeable future'. I honestly haven't heard of anyone who thinks this is the case. There's obviously a lot of debate about how to get there - and Democrats are generally too leery of making cuts to entitlement programs that desperately need it (and, separately, to reduce healthcare costs across the board) - but I don't think anyone suggests that high deficits are sustainable.

    I'm also shocked you think that a US default would only have short term effects.

  6. #6
    Its a game of chicken. One side will blink and in the end we'll probably get a little more spending cuts and the debt ceiling increased. Most of this is simply positioning.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    I'm startled you think 'those negotiating with Republicans' (presumably you mean Democratic congressional leaders and the administration) think we can 'maintain a trillion dollar deficit for the foreseeable future'. I honestly haven't heard of anyone who thinks this is the case. There's obviously a lot of debate about how to get there - and Democrats are generally too leery of making cuts to entitlement programs that desperately need it (and, separately, to reduce healthcare costs across the board) - but I don't think anyone suggests that high deficits are sustainable.
    I don't see Democrats suggesting any plan that would get us to a ~3% deficit within the next few years. The concessions they're willing to make would result in us having a trillion deficit until the next recession, at which point it will double yet again.

    I'm also shocked you think that a US default would only have short term effects.
    The long-term effects of a brief default would likely be far smaller than the long-term effects of maintaining a trillion dollar deficit. I think a brief default would lead to an instant recession, but the effect would wear off within a few years (not that we'd get the lost output back).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  8. #8
    Of course the debt limit will rise, but it should do so under conditions. The whole thing with negotiations is you don't start a negotiation where you end it. One side says "raise the limit without conditions" the other side says "don't raise the limit". The sensible thing of course is to raise the limit, but massively slash wasteful expenditure immediately. Hopefully that will be the compromise soon.
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    I'm startled you think 'those negotiating with Republicans' (presumably you mean Democratic congressional leaders and the administration) think we can 'maintain a trillion dollar deficit for the foreseeable future'. I honestly haven't heard of anyone who thinks this is the case. There's obviously a lot of debate about how to get there - and Democrats are generally too leery of making cuts to entitlement programs that desperately need it (and, separately, to reduce healthcare costs across the board) - but I don't think anyone suggests that high deficits are sustainable.
    Not only do Democratic leaders seem to think that, even you still seem to think that not only is it affordable to maintain high spending but that its sustainable to keep wasting a fortune on "stimulus".

  9. #9
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    Any default of the US government is playing with fire in a gunpowder storage. If it wouldn't be shrugged off by the markets as something that's 'not real' then the US will find itself in the same situation as Greece right now, with the rest of the world trying to get rid of their dollar holdings. A default of the US is financial Armageddon.
    Congratulations America

  10. #10
    David Brooks - yes, that David Brooks - sounds pretty disgusted with the TPers in these negotiations as well:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/05/op...s.html?_r=1&hp
    Quote Originally Posted by NYTimes
    The Mother of All No-Brainers
    By DAVID BROOKS

    The Republicans have changed American politics since they took control of the House of Representatives. They have put spending restraint and debt reduction at the top of the national agenda. They have sparked a discussion on entitlement reform. They have turned a bill to raise the debt limit into an opportunity to put the U.S. on a stable fiscal course.

    Republican leaders have also proved to be effective negotiators. They have been tough and inflexible and forced the Democrats to come to them. The Democrats have agreed to tie budget cuts to the debt ceiling bill. They have agreed not to raise tax rates. They have agreed to a roughly 3-to-1 rate of spending cuts to revenue increases, an astonishing concession.

    Moreover, many important Democrats are open to a truly large budget deal. President Obama has a strong incentive to reach a deal so he can campaign in 2012 as a moderate. The Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, has talked about supporting a debt reduction measure of $3 trillion or even $4 trillion if the Republicans meet him part way. There are Democrats in the White House and elsewhere who would be willing to accept Medicare cuts if the Republicans would be willing to increase revenues.

    If the Republican Party were a normal party, it would take advantage of this amazing moment. It is being offered the deal of the century: trillions of dollars in spending cuts in exchange for a few hundred million dollars of revenue increases.

    A normal Republican Party would seize the opportunity to put a long-term limit on the growth of government. It would seize the opportunity to put the country on a sound fiscal footing. It would seize the opportunity to do these things without putting any real crimp in economic growth.

    The party is not being asked to raise marginal tax rates in a way that might pervert incentives. On the contrary, Republicans are merely being asked to close loopholes and eliminate tax expenditures that are themselves distortionary.

    This, as I say, is the mother of all no-brainers.

    But we can have no confidence that the Republicans will seize this opportunity. That’s because the Republican Party may no longer be a normal party. Over the past few years, it has been infected by a faction that is more of a psychological protest than a practical, governing alternative.

    The members of this movement do not accept the logic of compromise, no matter how sweet the terms. If you ask them to raise taxes by an inch in order to cut government by a foot, they will say no. If you ask them to raise taxes by an inch to cut government by a yard, they will still say no.

    The members of this movement do not accept the legitimacy of scholars and intellectual authorities. A thousand impartial experts may tell them that a default on the debt would have calamitous effects, far worse than raising tax revenues a bit. But the members of this movement refuse to believe it.


    The members of this movement have no sense of moral decency. A nation makes a sacred pledge to pay the money back when it borrows money. But the members of this movement talk blandly of default and are willing to stain their nation’s honor.

    The members of this movement have no economic theory worthy of the name. Economists have identified many factors that contribute to economic growth, ranging from the productivity of the work force to the share of private savings that is available for private investment. Tax levels matter, but they are far from the only or even the most important factor.

    But to members of this movement, tax levels are everything. Members of this tendency have taken a small piece of economic policy and turned it into a sacred fixation. They are willing to cut education and research to preserve tax expenditures. Manufacturing employment is cratering even as output rises, but members of this movement somehow believe such problems can be addressed so long as they continue to worship their idol.

    Over the past week, Democrats have stopped making concessions. They are coming to the conclusion that if the Republicans are fanatics then they better be fanatics, too.

    The struggles of the next few weeks are about what sort of party the G.O.P. is — a normal conservative party or an odd protest movement that has separated itself from normal governance, the normal rules of evidence and the ancient habits of our nation.

    If the debt ceiling talks fail, independents voters will see that Democrats were willing to compromise but Republicans were not. If responsible Republicans don’t take control, independents will conclude that Republican fanaticism caused this default. They will conclude that Republicans are not fit to govern.

    And they will be right.

  11. #11
    I agree with him in many ways — that said, we aren't sure what kinds of tax increases and entitlement reductions are actually being put on the table. It sort of feeds a narrative about who is being moderate, when in reality no one really knows.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    I agree with him in many ways — that said, we aren't sure what kinds of tax increases and entitlement reductions are actually being put on the table. It sort of feeds a narrative about who is being moderate, when in reality no one really knows.
    I agree that negotiations so far seem pretty opaque, but every indication has been that GOP representatives have been consistently opposing any tax increases - including closing of loopholes (but keeping top rates constant). Democrats obviously haven't been willing to move much on entitlements, but there's been plenty of discussion from the Dem side about curbing or cutting Medicare/Medicaid/SS spending, albeit not as much as it needs to be. On the GOP side, there's a flat 'no' in response to tax hikes. That's a very unhealthy attitude to take, and imperils the negotiations.

    Look, even bread-and-butter conservatives are very worried about this TP-driven fundamentalism and find it at odds with sensible government. They're right. Democrats have their crazies, but they by and large haven't managed to shift the entire party's stance to an uncompromising position.

    I'm honestly extremely disappointed with the GOP. It's this kind of ideological purity that doesn't speak well to independents. This is a real shame because they have a pretty important point of view on the place of federal government, but it's getting lost in this whole TP-fueled mess.

  13. #13
    How about reducing or temporarily suspending benefits of government employees to make them similar to the private sector paying conditions and perks for comparable lines of work.

    It's not the raising of taxes that is bad or that cutting expenditures is bad it's about targeting correctly what to cut spending on, and who to raise taxes on. Obvioulsy those making 30-50k a year are not the people to be increasing taxes on. Those people hardly live any life of luxury and are a constant spenders in their local communities. Hmmm...
    Last edited by Lebanese Dragon; 07-05-2011 at 09:04 PM.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    I agree that negotiations so far seem pretty opaque, but every indication has been that GOP representatives have been consistently opposing any tax increases - including closing of loopholes (but keeping top rates constant). Democrats obviously haven't been willing to move much on entitlements, but there's been plenty of discussion from the Dem side about curbing or cutting Medicare/Medicaid/SS spending, albeit not as much as it needs to be. On the GOP side, there's a flat 'no' in response to tax hikes. That's a very unhealthy attitude to take, and imperils the negotiations.

    Look, even bread-and-butter conservatives are very worried about this TP-driven fundamentalism and find it at odds with sensible government. They're right. Democrats have their crazies, but they by and large haven't managed to shift the entire party's stance to an uncompromising position.

    I'm honestly extremely disappointed with the GOP. It's this kind of ideological purity that doesn't speak well to independents. This is a real shame because they have a pretty important point of view on the place of federal government, but it's getting lost in this whole TP-fueled mess.


    I suppose this is what happens with a strict two-party system. The GOP has been fracturing for a long time, and they keep thinking theirs is the party of "fiscal responsibility", so anyone concerned about taxes, debt or deficit would never vote for a Democrat.

    They're ignoring moderates from either party, plus Independents or Libertarians. They're catering to Social Conservatives (anathema to older Republicans who would want gov't to butt out of private lives), Government Haters (because gov't can't do anything right), Military Hawks (who see global military intervention as our way to maintain Superpower status), and Corporatism / Crony Capitalism (where all the money is....)

    The GOP has been moving to far-right Fundamentalism longer than before the Tea Party showed up, though. Beginning with the Moral Majority. They're now capitalizing on the Taxed Enough Already crowd to push their anti-tax, anti-federal, anti-democratic agenda. Any compromise they'll call wussing out on "principle", but it's just another way of being the Party of No. Filibustering, obstructing, rendering congress paralyzed in hang-time, anything proposed by Democrats is seen as supporting Obama....and their main goal is to make Obama a one-term President. Even if that means defaulting on our debt and causing another crisis.

  15. #15
    Okay, wait, I didn't mean to make this a GOP hate-fest. They have a lot of good ideas.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    Okay, wait, I didn't mean to make this a GOP hate-fest. They have a lot of good ideas.
    Yes, "they" do. It's not a GOP hate-fest. But those good ideas are being buried by the bat-shit-insane who call closing tax loopholes (that would improve revenue) tax increases, and those who demand No Tax Increase pledges.

  17. #17
    Well, closing loopholes is a tax increase. It's just a not-so-bad increase, especially when a bit more revenue needs to be raised - and in general it's a good idea to simplify the tax code. But ideally closing tax loopholes would be coupled with lowering the overall tax rates, resulting in little change in revenue but a much more economically efficient income. The problem is that for the scale of the deficit reductions necessary, revenues simply can't be flat, especially when revenues are at historically low levels already.

  18. #18
    Or...the loopholes were a type of subsidy for those who could find and exploit them. Another reason to simplify our tax codes.

    Revenues and tax rates are at historical lows now. It's crazy for (some) Republicans to suggest we can cut spending and taxes to get out of the hole. I think it was (R) Alan Simpson (from the debt commission) who said they gathered data from the top 400 income earners in the US, and found their effective tax rate was 16%.

  19. #19
    Revenue as a percentage of GDP has been steady at around 18% of GDP. During the financial crisis and recession it dipped to around 17%. Saying that our revenues are at "historical lows" is incorrect.

  20. #20
    I believe wiggin meant revenues are historically low in proportion to our spending.

  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    I believe wiggin meant revenues are historically low in proportion to our spending.
    That'd be an insanely stupid way of measuring it.

    The only 2 ways to measure it would be in gross (not the most sensible) and as a percentage of GDP (much more common).

  22. #22
    I was also referring to GGT's remark that tax revenues and rates are "historically low." Not Wiggin's comments.

  23. #23
    Wait, are you saying that we've been fed a line of bull? That US tax rates aren't currently lower than any time since WWII? That our expenditures aren't higher than ever (as % of GDP), and we don't really have a deficit between revenue and spending?


  24. #24
    No, it's known as government income as a percentage of GDP. It's been relatively stable for 50 years. Is this really that hard?

  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    No, it's known as government income as a percentage of GDP. It's been relatively stable for 50 years. Is this really that hard?
    Gads, you're touchy lately. Didn't you recently have a vacation?

    Gov't income as % of GDP may be relatively stable for five decades, as you say. GDP has always gone up, even slowly. So what's all this fuss about our debt, deficit, deficit spending, taxation and revenue anyway, huh.

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Dread
    Revenue as a percentage of GDP has been steady at around 18% of GDP. During the financial crisis and recession it dipped to around 17%. Saying that our revenues are at "historical lows" is incorrect.
    Actually, Dread, federal government revenue as a percentage of GDP was about 15% in 2009 and 2010 (a bit lower, actually), and ranged from about 16-18% from 2002-2008. For much of the 90s (especially later 90s) it was around 19% ranging up to 20%, but was generally lower earlier than that (17-18% mostly for the previous decades). So it is the lowest it's been since about 1950, but that's mostly due to cyclical factors and temporary tax breaks. The revenue as a percentage of GDP during the Bush tax cut years (but prior to the recession) was maybe marginally lower than trend, but not noticeably so.

    (Notably, my favorite person - Senator DeMint - has claimed that the US is bringing in more revenue than ever before. That's untrue both on nominal terms - revenue in the middle of last decade was far higher than it is now - or in relation to GDP, where it's dropped to about 14.5% this year. He shouldn't say things like that in the middle of a very deep crisis.)

    It gets more complicated when you throw in local government, of course, but the basic trends are pretty constant.


    None of this is really relevant to the question of whether more revenue will need to be raised, though. It's probably possible to bump up to the high 18-19% range by letting current temporary breaks expire (e.g. the payroll tax) and closing some big loopholes - not stupid chump change like corporate jets, though they can throw that in as well. Pushing revenues up to 19% in a countercyclical manner (I know that we disagree on the specific timing, but let's ignore that for now) is almost certainly necessary to help close the gap with spending, which is currently about 23% of GDP and will probably only drop to 21% of GDP at best with spending cuts. A 2% gap is small enough in a growing economy to bring our debt load down to manageable levels. Closing the gap only with spending would require slashing about 6% of GDP in spending today, which is absurd. Of course, as the economy recovers revenues will bounce back a little bit anyways, but it would still need a pretty painful cut. Eking an extra 1% in revenues (above trend) for an extra 2% savings in spending will probably close the gap sufficiently.

  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by GGT View Post
    Gads, you're touchy lately. Didn't you recently have a vacation?

    Gov't income as % of GDP may be relatively stable for five decades, as you say. GDP has always gone up, even slowly. So what's all this fuss about our debt, deficit, deficit spending, taxation and revenue anyway, huh.
    Because our spending is at about 25% of GDP.

    Quote Originally Posted by wiggin View Post
    None of this is really relevant to the question of whether more revenue will need to be raised, though. It's probably possible to bump up to the high 18-19% range by letting current temporary breaks expire (e.g. the payroll tax) and closing some big loopholes - not stupid chump change like corporate jets, though they can throw that in as well. Pushing revenues up to 19% in a countercyclical manner (I know that we disagree on the specific timing, but let's ignore that for now) is almost certainly necessary to help close the gap with spending, which is currently about 23% of GDP and will probably only drop to 21% of GDP at best with spending cuts. A 2% gap is small enough in a growing economy to bring our debt load down to manageable levels. Closing the gap only with spending would require slashing about 6% of GDP in spending today, which is absurd. Of course, as the economy recovers revenues will bounce back a little bit anyways, but it would still need a pretty painful cut. Eking an extra 1% in revenues (above trend) for an extra 2% savings in spending will probably close the gap sufficiently.
    I think it's highly relevant for reasons that you seem to intuit later in this paragraph. Getting the American people to accept paying 20-22% of GDP in taxes requires a pretty significant change in how much money is handed over to the government at all levels of the tax brackets.

    Just realizing that there is a historically accepted range seems to be difficult for the Pelosi wing of the Democratic party, which seems perfectly comfortable with matching their spending with taxing income at 22-24% of GDP.

    Fortunately we can only hope Obama (and Boehner) is actually being more serious. Couldn't help but notice the WSJ and NYTimes both had stories clearly pitched as, "we're being more moderate now, we're not crazy!"

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/07/us...s/07fiscal.htm

    July 6, 2011

    President Looks for Broader Deal on Deficit Cuts

    By CARL HULSE and MARK LANDLER

    WASHINGTON — Heading into a crucial negotiating session on a budget deal on Thursday, President Obama has raised his sights and wants to strike a far-reaching agreement on cutting the federal deficit as Speaker John A. Boehner has signaled new willingness to bargain on revenues.

    Mr. Obama, who is to meet at the White House with the bipartisan leadership of Congress in an effort to work out an agreement to raise the federal debt limit, wants to move well beyond the $2 trillion in savings sought in earlier negotiations and seek perhaps twice as much over the next decade, Democratic officials briefed on the negotiations said Wednesday.

    The president’s renewed efforts follow what knowledgeable officials said was an overture from Mr. Boehner, who met secretly with Mr. Obama last weekend, to consider as much as $1 trillion in unspecified new revenues as part of an overhaul of tax laws in exchange for an agreement that made substantial spending cuts, including in such social programs as Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security — programs that had been off the table.

    The intensifying negotiations between the president and the speaker have Congressional Democrats growing anxious, worried they will be asked to accept a deal that is too heavily tilted toward Republican efforts and produces too little new revenue relative to the magnitude of the cuts.

    Congressional Democrats said they were caught off guard by the weekend White House visit of Mr. Boehner — a meeting the administration still refused to acknowledge on Wednesday — and Senate Democrats raised concerns at a private party luncheon on Wednesday.

    House Democrats have their own fears about the negotiations, which they expressed in an hourlong meeting Wednesday night with Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner.

    “Depending on what they decide to recommend, they may not have Democrats,” Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat, said in an interview. “I think it is a risky thing for the White House to basically take the bet that we can be presented with something at the last minute and we will go for it.”

    Officials said Mr. Boehner suggested that he was open to the possibility of $1 trillion or more in new revenue that would be generated by addressing tax issues already raised in the talks, like killing breaks for the oil and gas industry, eliminating ethanol subsidies and ending preferential treatment for corporate jets.

    But those changes would fall far short of the revenue goal, and the source of the rest of the money would, under what they described as Mr. Boehner’s proposal, be decided by Congress through a review of tax law changes. One official said some revenue could be generated by allowing Bush-era tax cuts for affluent Americans to expire at the end of 2012, which would produce hundreds of billions of dollars, though those savings would be offset by the costs of retaining lower rates for those below the income threshold.

    Aides to Mr. Boehner said that no tax increases were on the table and that he had not agreed to the expiration of any tax cuts.

    One source familiar with the talks said the speaker had put forward options on how to proceed, including making a commitment to a tax code overhaul that would lower rates while closing loopholes, ending deductions and instituting other changes to generate substantial new revenue. Mr. Boehner has in the past pushed tax simplification as a way to help the economy.

    Democrats were distrustful of Mr. Boehner’s idea, saying such an approach raises the prospect that future tax and revenue changes could be blocked by Republicans after Democrats had already agreed to the detailed cuts. They sought assurances that all the elements of any budget deal would be enacted simultaneously.

    “We want as robust a deficit reduction deal as possible,” said David Krone, chief of staff to Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, the majority leader, who would serve as point man for moving any agreement through the Senate. “But it has to be balanced between spending and revenues, in terms of timing, specificity and dollars.”

    Democrats are not just worried about the substantial policy issues at stake; they are also concerned about the political implications of any deal as they try to hold control of the Senate next year and win back the House.

    To the degree that any deal wins bipartisan support on slowing the growth of Medicare, for example, it would deprive Democrats of what has been one of their most potent arguments heading into 2012: their assertion that Republicans would gut the traditional Medicare system and leave older Americans vulnerable to rapidly rising health care costs.

    Faced with the prospect that the federal government would default on its credit obligations, Democrats might indeed be cajoled into backing an agreement they did not strongly support. But at the moment, there is substantial private and public grumbling about what looms ahead.

    Senator Bernard Sanders, independent of Vermont, urged the president not to yield to Republican demands to reduce the deficit by cutting hundreds of billions of dollars from Medicare, Medicaid and other domestic spending. He said that “the president has got to demand that at least 50 percent of deficit reduction come from revenues,” including higher taxes on the wealthy and large corporations.

    At the same time, Representative Eric Cantor, the Virginia Republican and majority leader, said Wednesday that he would not accept any net increase in federal revenues, and that any money raised from eliminating tax breaks or loopholes must be offset by cuts elsewhere in the tax code.

    “If the president wants to talk loopholes, we’ll be glad to talk loopholes,” Mr. Cantor said. “We have said all along that preferences in the code are not something that helps economic growth over all. But, listen, we are not for any proposal that increases taxes. Any type of discussion should be coupled with offsetting tax cuts somewhere else.”

    White House officials acknowledge the unrest among Democrats. But they argue that Democrats will be in stronger shape politically heading into November 2012 if they help enact a credible deficit reduction deal, allowing them to mount the argument that they protected Medicare from a much more drastic overhaul by Republicans.

    In contrast, they say, failure to produce an agreement could bring unpredictable and unfavorable economic and political consequences.

    The officials are convinced that a larger package — one that would demand deeper cuts and more taxes but put the nation on a sounder fiscal footing for a decade or longer — is more politically palatable than the $2 trillion-plus package that was being cobbled together in talks presided over by Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

    And not all Democrats see the push for a major package as a negative.

    “We don’t need a minideal,” Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat, said Wednesday on the Senate floor. “We need something that speaks authoritatively to the world that the United States understands its deficit challenge and is prepared to make the hard choices to address it.”

    Robert Pear contributed reporting.

  28. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    Because our spending is at about 25% of GDP.
    Exactly. If gov't revenue has been between 15-20% of GDP for decades, including recessions and War times, but now our gov't spending is at 25% of GDP...and our GDP is barely holding steady with growth rates of 2-5 %....we can't just grow or mine our way out. We'll have to do both; raise some tax revenue and cut some spending.

    It's insane for anyone to suggest we can simply CUT our way to prosperity and balanced budgets. It's crazy that GOP wants promissory pledges to neither increase any tax, nor increase gov't revenue.

    (I'd post a WaPo op-ed about that, but it's about the GOP becoming a cult, and we don't want this to turn into a GOP fuckfest, do we? )

  29. #29
    Our GDP isn't holding steady, it's growing. The problem is our government expenditures have grown much, much faster over the past decade. And the projected future expenditures are guaranteed to grow even faster.

    We could possibly grow out of this with very high GDP, but that's unrealistic. So we need to both grow our GDP and reduce our spending to bring things to a better balance.

  30. #30
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadnaught View Post
    Because our spending is at about 25% of GDP.



    I think it's highly relevant for reasons that you seem to intuit later in this paragraph. Getting the American people to accept paying 20-22% of GDP in taxes requires a pretty significant change in how much money is handed over to the government at all levels of the tax brackets.

    Just realizing that there is a historically accepted range seems to be difficult for the Pelosi wing of the Democratic party, which seems perfectly comfortable with matching their spending with taxing income at 22-24% of GDP.

    Fortunately we can only hope Obama (and Boehner) is actually being more serious. Couldn't help but notice the WSJ and NYTimes both had stories clearly pitched as, "we're being more moderate now, we're not crazy!"
    I do find it amusing that when both sides are saying stupid things, you only assume the Republicans can be more serious
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

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