Big News in Lebanon

[Dreadnaught]

I'm going to take the view this will likely (though not definitely) not turn into a conflagration. Everyone knows by now the killings were likely Hezbollah. What I'm wondering is how long Hezbollah can basically hold the whole country of Lebanon in de-facto hostage.

Hariri slaying inquiry says calls pointed to Hezbollah

Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri's slaying was the result of a plot by the Shiite militia, according to a 47-page indictment. Hezbollah says the indictment is aimed at weakening Lebanon.

By Borzou Daragahi, Los Angeles Times

4:22 PM PDT, August 17, 2011

Reporting from Beirut


International jurists Wednesday released details of how an analysis of cellphone calls led investigators to conclude the Shiite Muslim militia Hezbollah was behind the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri six years ago.

The unsealing of the 47-page indictment, which suggests a complicated three-month plot by at least 11 conspirators to trail Hariri for months, establish his travel patterns and then dispatch a suicide bomber with a van full of explosives to kill him, did not produce surprises for close observers of the investigation and was immediately criticized by Hezbollah.

The inquiry of Hariri's Feb. 14, 2005, slaying has been beset by a series of leaks to media that have caused even opponents of Hezbollah to question the integrity of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, the U.N.-backed special court investigating the case.

Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, who last year said that the tribunal would probably indict four of his loyalists, has argued that the evidence was forged by Israeli spies who had infiltrated the country's telecommunications industry. On Wednesday, he called the indictment part of a conspiracy to weaken the country.

Nasrallah also said the indictment was intended to sour relations between Shiites and the Sunni community Hariri led and to harm the self-described resistance to U.S. and Israeli domination of the region.

"What's happening now is an attempt at undermining and sabotaging the social fabric, paving the ground for wars and civil strife, dragging the resistance into civil strife and consequently striking the resistance and harming its credibility," he said in a speech broadcast live in Lebanon and across the Arab world. "This indictment only boosts our confidence today that what is happening is a high level of injustice and politicization and these honorable members of the resistance should not even be described as accused."

Hariri's son, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, called on Hezbollah to hand the four accused men over to the tribunal. Nasrallah has repeatedly said he won't do so.

Analysts say Hezbollah has deftly managed to lessen the damage the allegations might have caused to its reputation as a champion of the Arab cause, though it has suffered regionally as a result of the case.

"They've been out in front of this story for a long time," said Elias Muhanna, a Harvard University researcher and author of the Middle East blog Qifa Nabki.

Though the indictment shows the mechanics of Hezbollah members' alleged involvement in the killing, it does not explore the question of motive: why Hezbollah would want to kill a man with whom it long had warm relations.

But the investigation is something of a milestone, as it is the first time the United Nations has pursued a terrorism case. Muhanna also said more evidence could be brought to public attention, including legwork that connected a series of networks of cellphone users to higher-level Hezbollah figures and allegations in a Canadian Broadcasting Corp. report last year connecting a senior member of Hariri's entourage to the alleged killers.

The massive explosion along Beirut's waterfront that claimed Hariri's life also killed more than 20 others. The indictment alleges that two of the suspected team members, in touch with the alleged ringleader Mustafa Badreddine, contacted Reuters and Al Jazeera after the attack to claim responsibility for the bombing by a fictitious group called Victory and Jihad in Greater Syria.

The indictment included an analysis of cellphone calls placed in the vicinity of the bombing scene. It established the presence of several networks of people who used fake names and remained in contact with one another exclusively until the day of the bombing, when they were in frequent contact with each other.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationwo...,7381569.story

***

In separate news...didn't see this coming either.

Lebanon bans smoking in closed public places
The Associated Press

BEIRUT — Lebanon's National News Agency says parliament has banned smoking in closed public places like restaurants and pubs.

The report said the law, passed Wednesday, and will go into effect over the course of the year. Violators will be subject to fines, but it was not immediately clear how much. The law also bans advertising for cigarettes.

Smoking is common throughout Lebanon, where people light up everywhere from cafes and restaurants to hospital waiting rooms.

Lawmaker Atef Majdalani, a doctor, said Lebanon spends $350 million annually for treatment of diseases caused by smoking.

http://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world...n-1117570.html

[CitizenCain]

Well, frankly, this is why such matters ought to be left to black ops instead of fully transparent inquiries.

You know who did what, and why, so you dispatch the commandos to resolve the problem, instead of turning it into a public spectacle which only proves that the law is a lying contest. Worst case scenario, you kill a bunch of guys who had it coming anyway. Best case scenario, you kill the specific group of guys who had it coming anyway and did what you're sure they did.

Though, I suppose I'm only being brutally honest on account of the amount of booze in my system, and would normally favor anything that weakens the state(s), so take that for what it's worth. Seems to be the unwritten rule of the non-Western world: government, bad... rebels, worse. So nuke the planet form orbit already and be done with it.

[wiggin]

Uh, Dread... big news? Hasn't this been a foregone conclusions for years already?

[Dreadnaught]

Yes, but the last time the commission tried to release its report Hezbollah basically toppled the Lebanese government.

[Lebanese Dragon]

I am curious of the motive as well. I really wish for peace and prosperity in this area. They have many beautiful communities that are needlessly affected by ridiculous wars. I feel the heart of the situation will unravel with a fair arrangement thtat can be made between Palestine and Isreal. I think a proper solution should be that a Palestine is created initially, and more land is ceded over to Palestine over time. this will help solve isreal's security issues and concerns in which lands to give, and let Palestine a chance to establish itself and show it's good will and contentment with the agreements reached. Isreal concern of being attacked goes down if we have decade or two decades of peace in the area.

I feel that land shoudl be divided a chunk should be given initially to the palestinian and then more should be ceded to them over time.

[wiggin]

What does that have to do with Lebanon and Syria?

[Lebanese Dragon]

I was contending that resolving that major crisis between palestine and Isreal will actually solve many other problems... That's why I took that tangent.

[wiggin]

Lebanon's going to be a shithole regardless.

[Lebanese Dragon]

Lebanon's going to be a shithole regardless.

Aren't you eloquent, why do you say that?

[Dreadnaught]

Have you seen Lebanon for the past six years?

[wiggin]

Six years? How 'bout 35 years? I believe the civil war started in '76.

[Lebanese Dragon]

Six years? How 'bout 35 years? I believe the civil war started in '76.

You may be right that Lebanon was not what it was, but there are still many parts of Lebanon that are beautiful, and there are still thriving communities I have both visited, and seen with my own eyes. I still believe if we resolve the Palestinian-Isreali conflict that many conflicts in Lebanon and all their affects will be soon to follow. Lebanon's issues exists in the shadow of greater regional issues, and also has been intertwined with them.

[wiggin]

Lebanon's civil war started years before an Israeli troop set foot on Lebanese soil. In fact, the only reason Israel invaded a few times (and occupied bits of S. Lebanon for ~18 years) is because the chaos in Lebanon was spilling over the border into attacks on Israeli targets. Sure, there's a Palestinian 'refugee' problem there, but Syria and Jordan have significant Palestinian populations as well, but they haven't descended into civil war (despite occasional bouts of violence from either side). The reason Lebanon is a failed state is because it is a patchwork of dozens of different identity groups (with Palestinians only being one) and they haven't been able to figure out how to adequately mesh them in a democracy. Throw in meddling by Syria and Iran to support their pet Islamists, and you've got a state without any effective governance.

I don't doubt there are beautiful bits in Lebanon - I've seen bits of it from northern Israel, and I agree. That's irrelevant to whether the Lebanese situation has any chance of being solved through a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

[Lebanese Dragon]

That's irrelevant to whether the Lebanese situation has any chance of being solved through a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

Not directly; however, establishing peace in that area will greatly influence the pressures for peace in other surroundings areas as the world spectators focuses begin to look elsewhere from the Isreali-Palestinian issues. In addition, the removal of the Isreali-Palestinian problem will also reduce the spreading of arms in the area, and overall this will help expedite greatly resolutions to the problems that exist in surrounding areas including Lebanon.

[wiggin]

Riiiiight. So if Israel makes friends with the Palestinians, Syria will stop intervening in Lebanon? Arms shipments from Iran to Hezbollah will stop? Lebanon's fractious minorities will just learn to get along?

As for the world's attention, I highly doubt Lebanon will merit attention even if Israel disappeared tomorrow; they're small and there's much bigger fish to fry. Hell, Israel itself only gets attention because of some unique circumstances - otherwise, they, too would be of little import to 'world spectators'.

[Lebanese Dragon]

As for the world's attention, I highly doubt Lebanon will merit attention even if Israel disappeared tomorrow; they're small and there's much bigger fish to fry

On this point you're probably right.

As to the others... There is obviously internal trading and spreading of weapons, and if less weapons are being purchased in the region then in the long run there will be fewer weapons in the hands of groups like Hezzbollah. I do agree Lebanon still needs an answer to Syria, which is just an invader under false pretenses...

1.) Mostly what I'm getting at is when you create pockets of wars then the surrounding areas get affected, youth from surrounding areas get recruited, areas are used as stations to mount operations... there are rippling affects. Similarly, when you create pockets of peace you stifle those ripples. It will not eliminate issues but it helps stop their escalation.

2.) If a Palestine can exist as a nation that develops strongly and peacefully it can serve as a safe haven and alternative for those who need it, and can help all surrounding areas benefit through trade. Also Isreal will do better as well, with peace along it's borders, creating for them a stronger economy. This can create quality of life increases to surrounding areas and stop some people from joining militant causes.

[Enoch the Red]

And if wishes were horses we'd all be eating steaks.

[Lebanese Dragon]

Are you saying wars don't spread? Or are you saying peace can't spread? It's clear both will spread themselves. Just like if Mexico was more stable America would also benefit. To a larger degree this is true in the middle eastern regions in question.

[CitizenCain]

No, actually, it's "if America didn't force its Quixotic campaign against evil plant life south of the border, Mexico would be more stable and many orders of magnitude less violent." But, the feds lie, so millions die. But they're mostly Spics anyway, so who cares? And no, peace is not contagious like a communicable disease. It doesn't spread just because two countries share a border - if it did work like that, wars would never start, because the peace virus would spread in from another border just in time to disarm hostilities...

[Lebanese Dragon]

if it did work like that, wars would never start, because the peace virus would spread in from another border just in time to disarm hostilities...

Peace virus isn't a bad way to put it, but just like real viruses at the origin the peace virus is thickest and then it slowly thins out from there. Same thing with the war virus.

[Dreadnaught]

I still believe if we resolve the Palestinian-Isreali conflict that many conflicts in Lebanon and all their affects will be soon to follow. Lebanon's issues exists in the shadow of greater regional issues, and also has been intertwined with them.

Complete BS. We've seen how Hezbollah has hijacked the Lebanese government even after the Israelis left. While Lebanon and Israel occasionally cross paths/guns, Israel is not responsible for Lebanon's decades-long alternation between hot and cold civil war.

[Lebanese Dragon]

Complete BS. We've seen how Hezbollah has hijacked the Lebanese government even after the Israelis left. While Lebanon and Israel occasionally cross paths/guns, Israel is not responsible for Lebanon's decades-long alternation between hot and cold civil war.

I agree.. and i'm not blaming Isreal. I'm saying creating peace between Palestine and Isreal will help weaken groups like Hezbollah (because i beleive part of their propaganda for recruitment is based off anti-isreali sentiments, and they likely have increased access to arms due to the fights in that area), additonially it will have positive affects toward peace movements in all neighboring areas including Lebanon.

[Dreadnaught]

Except even when the Israelis withdrew, they fabricated propaganda about how Israel was somehow still occupying Lebanon (even though the UN certified they weren't). And then they raided the border to abduct Israeli soldiers.

I'm sorry, but they will use the existence of Israel as a pretext for anything, regardless of Israel's status in the region.

[Loki]

Are you saying wars don't spread? Or are you saying peace can't spread? It's clear both will spread themselves. Just like if Mexico was more stable America would also benefit. To a larger degree this is true in the middle eastern regions in question.

Wars might spread, but your statement was based on the assumption that Palestine would become a strong and peaceful state, which has virtually no chance of happening.

[Omega]

Honestly, I think Leb Dragon is more right (righter?) than most of us since he's visited the damn country and managed to return relatively unscathed. Well about the lush communities thriving with vibrant life.

[Lebanese Dragon]

I have been there multiple times, and have a lots of family in Lebanon (many people there are not happy with Isreal, and many people in Lebanon supported Hezbollah's creation as a way to remove Isrealis from their lands), and what escalates issues is that Isreal's way of counter attacking Hezbollah is to hit the countries infrastructure (powerplants, airways, key areas...) so that the country will put pressure on Hezbollah to stop. It's effective but is not good for PR toward isreal, and drives people to be anti-isreal and join hezbollah. Additionally, many times these overkill attacks are condemned internationally. Because of this and other events there is still a lot of political unrest on these issues.

However, I think the tempo for peace, and the pressures for peace will be there if Isreal and Palestine come to terms. Palestinians are seen by the arab community, and abroad as victims in unjust occupations and settlements. This fuels the surrounding regions, this and the history of conflicts. I feel that a Isreali-Palestinian peace is essential for removing the "Isreal must die mentality" and if there is a peace it will stifle the natural effects of wars, and hurt the recruitment and spreading of arms to militant groups. That's my belief. What will actually happen, how big of positive impact such a peace would have in the area, the only way to know for sure is to see what happens after such a peace is made (which I pray for). I know it won't remove it all, there is still many poltical strucuture issues in Lebanon, and Syria's influence is still present even within the Lebanese political system.

The way I see an isreali-palestinian solution happening is to give Palestinians a piece of land initially then start ceding the rest over say 20 years (every couple of years you extend the borders formally toward the Palestinian State). I really think this will be the best solution, and one that is fair and addresses many of the concerns on both sides. And niether side will feel they're coming out ahead, both will dislike it, and it's because no-one is getting everything they want. If 20 years of peace can hold that would be a great accomplishment. There will be a lot of pressures from surrounding Arab nations to keep this peace.

[Dreadnaught]

Okay, but what does that have to do with Lebanon's broken, ethnic-quota based government that breeds civil strife all the time?

[Loki]

Honestly, I think Leb Dragon is more right (righter?) than most of us since he's visited the damn country and managed to return relatively unscathed. Well about the lush communities thriving with vibrant life.

And since I've been to Russia, any claim I make about the country, no matter how ridiculous and contrary with known facts, should be considered to be correct.

[Lebanese Dragon]

And since I've been to Russia, any claim I make about the country, no matter how ridiculous and contrary with known facts, should be considered to be correct.

He qualified his statement to be regarding my claims that there does indeed exist thriving communties, which there are. I've said nothing in here about all of Lebanon's problems going away with a Palestinian peace settlement, I simply argued that if such peace happened then the surrounding areas issues will be improved as well. In fact, in numerous places do I agree it will not eliminate problem in Lebanon, but rather I contend it will help reduce them. Numerous times do I point this out and numerous times do people overlook it.

[wiggin]

Actually, you said this:

I feel the heart of the situation will unravel with a fair arrangement thtat can be made between Palestine and Isreal.

That's pretty much what we're all saying is wrong. Lebanon has severe problems that are unrelated to their issues with Israel or Palestinians.