Will Obama Win in 2012?

[Lebanese Dragon]

What's the consensus here regarding the upcoming election. I know we still have a year for things to change, but let's say it happened today go ahead and predict your outcome, and then what would need to happen by november 2012 for the other outcome to come about? Who do you think will be the "top tier" for the republicans, to borrow some propaganda phrases.

My thoughts are that Obama could lose now but only to a candidate who campaigns on reducing debt, and job creation (even without spelling out the how of spurring job growth.) Obama has to argue he spent money to save jobs, and that it'd be worse if he didn't, and attempt to make some promises about how jobs are coming, and list some fields and hopefully people will buy it. Perhaps propose increased incentives to expanding business (who will repay such money based upon performance), and increase taxation on the larger businesses and upper class who are hording money anyway.

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On an aside I feel Obama's biggest failure was not abusing the fact that when he was first in office he had a super majority, and could get whatever he wanted passed. He should have just driven all the legislation he wanted through, instead he tried to build bridges and play fair hoping it'd pay off in the long run it really cost him. You can't play fair with people's whose souls have been purchased they have no free will to repay favors. He didn't use legilation as bargaining chips like he should have. Like I heard in a comment in a video, "Why didn't you only renew bush tax cuts contingent upon the republicans raising the debt cieling" instead of just givin' it to them. Mistakes that I hope aren't repeated if he gets office again. And i really hope a "balls to the wall" approach is taken this time around... democratic party's image be damned, future elections ignored, bridges and favors used as tools towards ends and nothing else.. and just get all the social and economic and military reform done as quickly as possible. AND SCHOOL reform we need to reformat how we run schools. or our nation is in trouble.

[Loki]

On aside I feel obama biggest failure was not abusing the fact that when he was first in office he had a super majority, and could get whatever he wanted passed. He should have just driven all the legislation he wanted through, instead he tried to build bridges and play fair hoping it'd pay off in the long run.

You mean like his healthcare bill? And you do realize that the Democratic party is not monolithic, right? Just because most of Congress was Democratic doesn't mean that the Congressmen would jeopardize their own careers to pass whatever Obama wanted. Frankly, it takes one heck of a warped reading of history to argue that Obama didn't try to ram through his legislation at all costs.

[Lebanese Dragon]

I feel he could have did more, and failed at what he had an opportunity to do, but we don't have to focus on that.. do you think he'd win today, and who do you think he'd be facing?

[Loki]

I think election predictions over a year in advance aren't going to be even remotely reliable.

[Wraith]

What's the consensus here regarding the upcoming election.

Too early to tell.

[Lebanese Dragon]

It's true, I think a lot depends on how things go over the next years time, if unemployment goes down then he'll likely retain, if it remains relatively unchanged it'll be close. granted anything can happen in a year, but I think this is the one realistic and probably metric that will decide the mood of the country with the president and if people vote dem or republican this time around.

[Dreadnaught]

Too early to tell...and don't we have a thread on this?

[CitizenCain]

Really, it depends on two primary factors. How much integrity there is in the American left, and the levels of gullibility and stupidity among American moderates. So, yeah, and he'll probably win in 2020 too.

[Nessus]

the American left

I didn't know your constitution gave the vote to mythical creatures!

[CitizenCain]

If you're gonna keep saying stuff like that, you need to at least spend a week in Berkley. Plenty of leftie nutters in America, we just try to keep 'em confined in city-sized asylums in the corners of the country.

[Nessus]

Plenty of leftie nutters in America, we just try to keep 'em confined

Problem solved, right there!

[CitizenCain]

Well, not really. They still vote, and frequently escape their holding areas.

[Nessus]

Votes don't really matter in a corporate state, though.

[Lebanese Dragon]

Too early to tell...and don't we have a thread on this?

That's why I had two parts to the question, one if the race happened today who would win? And secondly what would have to change for the other outcome to come about. Personally I think it'd be very close if it happened today given a reasonable candidate is selected for GOP (let's say a John McCain equivalent). That if Obama can show some more deficit spending cuts beyond the 2.4 trillion another trillion or so (if possible), and increased employment then by 2012 then I think he'll have it. Spending cuts in exchange for tax hikes (ones that sufficiently undo the bush tax cuts + some).

[Hazir]

Even though I dread to think about the GOP potentials, it would be a good laugh if the Obama presidency gets chucked into the dustbin of history post-haste.

[termite]

I don't know or care if Obama will get re-elected but I think its nice that he hasn't been assassinated.

As for who you vote for in an election - so often in modern politics it seems to be a case of "Who the other guy is". Rather than actually voting for a candidate many folks find themselves not voting for the other candidate. Sometimes the lesser of two evils is still too evil...

We currently have an absolute twit for a Prime Minister but the Opposition Leader is so far from being a reasonable alternative it is enough to make you leave the polling booth feeling like you were robbed of any real choice at all.

[Wraith]

Back at the other place, after Obama was elected, I predicted he would have an easy time with reelection. As I saw it, he wouldn't really need to accomplish anything good, just avoid screwing up. Him being a one term president seems a lot more likely now.

I don't know or care if Obama will get re-elected but I think its nice that he hasn't been assassinated.

I don't think there was ever really much chance of that.

[Lebanese Dragon]

I don't think there was ever really much chance of that.

This thought crossed my mind a few times as well when he was first elected (the chance of getting assassinated).

I predicted he would have an easy time with reelection.

I dont see how you saw this with an economy having such troubles.... and after the housing market crash no matter what he did he was screwed. If he acted and it didn't do enough good (which is what he HAD to do) then people say his actions were wrong (no actions would have been perfect too much foresight required), and if he didn't act adn thing spiraled out of control (which they would have) then people would complain about that. Even the best president would be looking bad right now unfortunately, and our society can see the difference, understand circumstance.

That said he probably could have done better, but he made for the most parts correct move in providing a stimulus for a hurting a economy.

[LittleFuzzy]

I don't think there was ever really much chance of that.

There wasn't. The only people who thought there was were Europeans *who can be forgiven for misperceiving at that distance* and the sort of hysterical and/or blatantly PR-positioning local Leftists who started screaming about the Republicans right after Giffords was shot. There's always the risk posed by the isolated and unstable gunman, like the ones who shot Gifford and Reagan, but that's just a more or less constant that comes with being a public figure, not something that varies based on the political or demographic attributes of the target. An organized domestic attempt on a sitting President is simply not in the cards right now.

[RandBlade]

There wasn't. The only people who thought there was were Europeans *who can be forgiven for misperceiving at that distance* and the sort of hysterical and/or blatantly PR-positioning local Leftists who started screaming about the Republicans right after Giffords was shot. There's always the risk posed by the isolated and unstable gunman, like the ones who shot Gifford and Reagan, but that's just a more or less constant that comes with being a public figure, not something that varies based on the political or demographic attributes of the target. An organized domestic attempt on a sitting President is simply not in the cards right now.

How many of your Presidents have either been assassinated or had an attempted assassination plot against them?

[Loki]

The implication was that Obama was particularly at risk because he was black. How many presidents were killed because of their ethnic background (we can even extend that to religion and ancestry)?

On a general note, the US had 4 presidents be assassinated, and only one in the last 110 years.

[LittleFuzzy]

How many of your Presidents have either been assassinated or had an attempted assassination plot against them?

When I looked it up when this idea was first floated, back in 2008, I had been mildly surprised by the number of executed attempts. And leaving the incredibly controversial and disputed JFK out of it, all of the domestic attempts in the last 50 years have been of the "isolated nut with a gun" variety. There was what could possibly have been an attempt on Clinton with a Cessna which would broaden the tools used slightly, but if that was an assassination attempt it also falls under the "isolated and unstable" rubric.

Or were you focusing on the "plot" aspect? The only organized assassination plot I can think of that was actually implemented was the attempt on Truman by two Puerto Rican nationalists. There was also the possible bombing attempt on Bush Sr. but if so that was clearly foreign, not domestic.

[RandBlade]

When I looked it up when this idea was first floated, back in 2008, I had been mildly surprised by the number of executed attempts. And leaving the incredibly controversial and disputed JFK out of it, all of the domestic attempts in the last 50 years have been of the "isolated nut with a gun" variety. There was what could possibly have been an attempt on Clinton with a Cessna which would broaden the tools used slightly, but if that was an assassination attempt it also falls under the "isolated and unstable" rubric.

Or were you focusing on the "plot" aspect? The only organized assassination plot I can think of that was actually implemented was the attempt on Truman by two Puerto Rican nationalists. There was also the possible bombing attempt on Bush Sr. but if so that was clearly foreign, not domestic.

No, the critical word was "attempted" not "plot". How many Presidents have had attempted assassinations against them? As far as I'm aware, if you include all the "loons with a gun" (which I think you should) then the question may be better how many have not had one?

1/11 have been successful assassinated right?

[Loki]

A) You don't think anything changed between the security a president had 1-2 centuries ago with the security they have now?
B) How is this relevant to there being an elevated threat for Obama?

[RandBlade]

A) There have, which is probably why there's more unsuccessful attempts rather than successful ones, but there's still plenty of attempts.
B) There's a bad enough threat for all Presidents even without elevation. Plenty of racist loons with guns.

[Loki]

A) This is irrelevant to people worrying specifically about an Obama assassination. Using this logic, people should have been equally worried about Bush.
B) Plenty of non-white racist loons as well.

[Lewkowski]

There wasn't. The only people who thought there was were Europeans *who can be forgiven for misperceiving at that distance* and the sort of hysterical and/or blatantly PR-positioning local Leftists who started screaming about the Republicans right after Giffords was shot. There's always the risk posed by the isolated and unstable gunman, like the ones who shot Gifford and Reagan, but that's just a more or less constant that comes with being a public figure, not something that varies based on the political or demographic attributes of the target. An organized domestic attempt on a sitting President is simply not in the cards right now.

Plus Presidents are a lot better guarded then other public officials.

As to the thread topic... I really really hope he's only a one term president. If things continue going as they are now he's not going to win re-election. People are tired of massive government debt when all that spending isn't doing a darn thing in getting people jobs.

[RandBlade]

As to the thread topic... I really really hope he's only a one term president. If things continue going as they are now he's not going to win re-election. People are tired of massive government debt when all that spending isn't doing a darn thing in getting people jobs.

Shame that ridiculously over-spending Bush got re-elected then?

[Lebanese Dragon]

B) Plenty of non-white racist loons as well.

So this risk either went down or up depending which there is more of (white racists or black racists), I probaly should include degree too as opposed to raw number of racists in each camp, but whatever it'll either go up or down all else being equal, which for the most part it should be.

[CitizenCain]

Shame that ridiculously over-spending Bush got re-elected then?

Compared to the world's most famous eco-nutjob? I think the one unavoidable lesson of Obama's term in office is "Republicans awful, Democrats worse."