Cameron barks, caravan moves on

[Hazir]

The PM of the UK appearantly must show to his eurohostiles that he can be one of them just as good as the next one; in close concert with crypto-fascist Viktor Orban (Hun) he's trying to block the presidency of the EC of Carl Juncker (Lux). He appearantly even went as far as claiming that his EU-referendum could go against continued EU membership of the UK if Juncker would be selected. The message was such an idiotic bag of notions that I don't even know how to react to it.

Some facts about the process; it's rather straightforward actually though there is a complication that I will get to later.

The Council selects a candidate for the presidency by through the QMV procedure (if there is a vote at all). Which means that no single country can block a candidate. The UK and Hungary combined also don't have a blocking vote. Who the Council will suggest is not certain.

The selected candidate then is proposed to the EP which can accept or reject the candidate with a simple majority. This is where it gets a bit compicated because the EP has its own preferred candidate, who happens to be Karl Juncker. The EP doesn't have the right though to decide who gets to be candidate. In the EP the vote for Juncker would be coming from the Christian Democrats/Social Democrats/Liberals and Greens. In case Juncker is the candidate he would get an overwhelming majority of the vote and would be the next President.

Against this Cameron puts his 'over my dead' body. Now I wonder;

1. Who is going to be very impressed by his threat? Who will really believe the vote is going to be about whether Juncker is the President or somebody else who we don' t know today, but who's probably going to be just as much a hate figure with eurohaters all over as every President is?

2. How does Cameron think to stop the candidate of a party-grouping his Conservative party doesn't belong to, without having any acceptable alternative? He doesn't have the support in the Council to block Juncker there, but more important than that, he doesn't have enough votes to offer in the EP to make him an interesting negotiation partner.

My guess is that by trying to play things up the way he does Cameron didn't reduce the chances for a Juncker Presidency, but enhanced that. Besides that he is only showing - again - how bad he is at politics.

[RandBlade]

Source for any of this? Not seen any of that in UK media. Can't see any article about Cameron wanting to block Juncker over his dead body: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/

[Hazir]

It is not a quote, it is my description of yet another example of what kind of idiot is representing you in the Council. You be probably better off if you'd send a monkey.

[RandBlade]

Its an example if your summary is right but its all news to me and none of it is listed on the BBC, the UKs main news source. And you did put in quote marks 'over my dead' body. I've not seen anything that Cameron is trying to block Juncker.

[RandBlade]

Right now there's an article saying Der Spiegel made the claims based on "sources" and that it has not been confirmed, in fact government sources told the BBC it didn't recognise the quotes. So basically much ado about nothing, and certainly not about a press conference Cameron gave. Since when was unsourced newspaper gossip such a big deal?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27653359

[Khendraja'aro]

Right, and you believe everything your government tells you?

I've got a bridge to sell to you in Bratislava.

[RandBlade]

No - I think if someone barks that generally involves speaking publicly. Whispering behind the scenes != barking. I certainly don't think any UKIP-style nutters give a figleaf over behind the scenes whispers and any that happen won't appease those loonies, which Cameron full well knows.

[Hazir]

Still, if it is remotely true then probably he just lost all credibility. Linking the referendum to reforms is one thing. But to link it to the question to whether or not Juncker gets the job actually makes Farage the saner opposite party for other council members.

[LittleFuzzy]

Right, and you believe everything your government tells you?

I think that if Cameron is trying to show anything to his "Eurohostiles" then he probably actually has to, you know, show something.

[Hazir]

I think that if Cameron is trying to show anything to his "Eurohostiles" then he probably actually has to, you know, show something.

Well, today Merkel replied to a question about Cameron's treath that she thought treaths not within the spirit of the EU. Which in itself funnily is a treath of course.

Seems so far that Cameron has no support that matters in the EC to keep Juncker out. Which means that what he's got to show for his efforts probably is going to be zilch unless he accepts Juncker as the formal candidate (assuming that by doing do he can get a statement to the effect that subsidiarity is going to be leading theme for a Juncker presidency).

Way to go I'd say; paint yourself in a corner in such a way that no matter what way out you choose you still look like a loser.

[Hazir]

From the corridors of Van Rompuy's offices the rumour is that Juncker is considered the only viable candidate.

It's an interesting developement by the way; this is a rather revolutionary in the EU. Cameron made a huge mistake when he made this about Juncker. Because of that he missed the chance of calling the newly developing system in question, but now that ship seems to have sailed and we'll wind up with a European Comission President who can claim to actually have a (indirect) mandate. I guess next time round we're going to see a fight for the position much harder than this time, and I think the EP can claim victory over the Council.

[Hazir]

Seems like Italy is moving behind Juncker too.

It's highly amusing by the way how British eurosceptics now all of a sudden are defending that black hole for democracy of the Council in their regular diatribes as the real champion of democratic procedure in the EU.

[Hazir]

And then it was Juncker with a fully politicized system of selection. Funny how Cameron was instrumental in shifting the initiative from Council to Parliament.

[Loki]

I have to agree with Hazir here: Cameron's move was about the most idiotic he could have made given his own preferences. I'm assuming that Cameron wants to Britain to stay in the EU, but he also wants to get domestic brownie points for "reforming" the EU. That means in order of preference, Cameron wants: stay in EU but reform, stay in EU without reform, leave EU after pushing reform, and leave EU after not pushing reform. I'm also assuming that the order of EU preferences are: British stays but there's no reform, Britain leaves and there's no reform, Britain stays and there's reform, and Britain leaves and there's reform.

I drew up a pretty 2 by 2 game theory tree with those assumptions in place. We see that if the EU reforms, the best British move is to stay. However, if the EU doesn't reform, the best British move is still to stay. Meanwhile, if Britain stays, the best EU move is no reform. If Britain leaves, the best EU move is no reform. The only Nash equilibrium is Britain stays and there's no reform. With no reform, Britain has no incentive to leave. And with Britain staying, there's no incentive for the EU to reform.

From a less mathematical angle, Cameron needed to please his domestic constituency (by pushing reform) while not doing anything that would push Britain toward an EU exit. By publicly proclaiming that if Juncker is nominated, Britain's chances of leaving go up, he told his domestic audience that if Britain doesn't get its way, they should hate the EU more. This is what happened. Additionally, by pushing for something and not getting it, Cameron did little to improve his own political prospects. In short, Cameron made an EU exit more likely (which he doesn't want), while not gaining any extra political capital (which he presumably did want). The better move would be to push the EU to change something that he already knew the EU was willing to change. That would both make Cameron look good at home and make the British public think that they have influence over the EU and thus don't need to leave it.

[Steely Glint]

No one in the UK gives a fuck about Juncker. I don't know what possessed Cameron to make such a big deal over it, he's manufactured a massive political defeat out of nothing.

[Timbuk2]

No one in the UK gives a fuck about Juncker. I don't know what possessed Cameron to make such a big deal over it, he's manufactured a massive political defeat out of nothing.

About sums it up.

99% of the UK has no idea who Juncker is, and the 1% who do know who he is don't give a shit what he does.

Cameron trying to appeal to the UKIP idiots by being an idiot. Should have just let it be.

[Hazir]

About sums it up.

99% of the UK has no idea who Juncker is, and the 1% who do know who he is don't give a shit what he does.

Cameron trying to appeal to the UKIP idiots by being an idiot. Should have just let it be.

You think people on this side of the Channel cared all that much right up untill Cameron started to act as if it was a big deal?

So now the idiot has had his vote, and the vote means that the old system in which the Council decided who runs the Commission is dead. They can't even keep up appearances, which they could have if the idiot at number 10 had shut up and Juncker could have been an old style candidate who just happened to be also the known choice of the EP. Now Juncker is the candidate who got there because the Council bowed its head to the Spitzenkandidaten system. His collegues will be so grateful to Cameron for making so glaringly obvious what they would have liked to gloss over.

As for reforms; Loki is right. Cameron is not getting anything in the way of reform other than what others already have identified as desirable reforms. One of the main reasons being that nobody wants to be left with his dick hanging out when the British PM has another hissy fit and runs for the exit (a door he keeps reminding us he' s pried open by making the ludicrous promise of a referendum after he's talked about jam tomorrow).

Really, the man couldn't push an applecart downhill.

[LittleFuzzy]

No one in the UK gives a fuck about Juncker. I don't know what possessed Cameron to make such a big deal over it, he's manufactured a massive political defeat out of nothing.

At a guess, he had a persuasive advisor(s) who said most didn't care one way or another so it was a safe topic to push back on.

[Hazir]

At a guess, he had a persuasive advisor(s) who said most didn't care one way or another so it was a safe topic to push back on.

Like the people who advised him to leave the EPP so that he was cut out of the loop when candidates were selected?

[Loki]

At a guess, he had a persuasive advisor(s) who said most didn't care one way or another so it was a safe topic to push back on.

He should probably get new advisors considering just how frequently they're wrong about these things.

[Hazir]

The great Wizard of Westmister is doing again; a show of smoke and mirrors for the entertainment of the hapless British voters. This time the grand theme is the extra money the UK is supposed to pay into the coffers of the EU. Mr Cameron has made the hard promise of not drawing his check book on december 1st (so what about december 2nd?).
What he forgot to mention is that the net effect of the exercise or re-calculation of the GDP of member states was in the making for many many months and that with the rules being available and the data coming from the statistical offices of the member states the British government should not be all that surprised by the outcome. So, one has to wonder why they are so surprised. Also one has to wonder why the ministry of finance forgot the tiny fact that they had been given the numbers days before Cameron was 'surprised'.

What he also forgot to mention is that the 'extra money' for the EU amounts to a net shrinkage of the EU budget with €400m and thus is no extra money at all, but less money and the burden being more fairly distributed between member states.

Finally, if he were to go through with this 'I don't pay' posturing that merely means that the EU won't be €400m short but well over €2bn short, and that means they'll have less money to disburse to the memberstates. One of which would be the UK. Maybe British farmers etc. won't like the effect so much once they realise that.

[Khendraja'aro]

Well, I'm wondering: If Cameron gets his will, what's to hinder the other states from selling their economy short in the future so they have to pay less upfront. And when they're confronted with back pay then they only have to point to Cameron and say: "Well, he didn't have to pay it either!"

[Hazir]

Well, I'm wondering: If Cameron gets his will, what's to hinder the other states from selling their economy short in the future so they have to pay less upfront. And when they're confronted with back pay then they only have to point to Cameron and say: "Well, he didn't have to pay it either!"

They didn't protest the system when it resulted in money back to them.

[Hazir]

It's becoming clear that this whole thing €2.1 bill was very well known by everyone who should have known in the UK government. It's just that Cameron doesn't understand.

Merkel today killed his other hobby horse of limited immigration.

[Dreadnaught]

Does this mean that the UK and Dutchland have very large "black" economies and thus must pay retribution to the patriotic French and German farmers?

[Hazir]

Does this mean that the UK and Dutchland have very large "black" economies and thus must pay retribution to the patriotic French and German farmers?

As far as I know the 'black' economy hasn't been part of this re-calculation. The Dutch 'opposition' to the back bill is that we will pay if the numbers add up. I think we'll find out that Cameron has zero allies on this issue like on any other issue. This due to the fact that the man simply doesn't even bother to get informed about what the deal is.

[Steely Glint]

Treasury's known about this for months but supposedly kept it from Cameron. Someone in the EU apprantly leaked this in advance for some reason. I suspect politicians on maneuvers ahead of up coming negotiations.

[Hazir]

Treasury's known about this for months but supposedly kept it from Cameron. Someone in the EU apprantly leaked this in advance for some reason. I suspect politicians on maneuvers ahead of up coming negotiations.

Which negotiations?

[Steely Glint]

Weren't there some coming up about immigration or something?

[Hazir]

Weren't there some coming up about immigration or something?

Eh.... No.

Cameron said he wants to talk about it but since nobody else does there's no negotiations going to happen.