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Thread: Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  1. #1

    Default Russian Invasion of Ukraine

    I figured it was time for a new thread. At this point the international consensus seems to be that it's now a proper invasion, and not just Russia passing equipment over the borders. Russia, of course, still denies it - moving on from the excuse that their soldiers got lost and accidentally crossed the borders to claiming that their soldiers are just on summer holiday in Ukraine. The Ukrainians were winning against the rebels, so I guess Russia figured its choices were to send in troops or let Ukraine repel their invasion-by-proxy.

    Ukraine’s government has called on NATO for help after a battalion of Russian ground troops, including armoured vehicles, crossed the border into Ukraine.

    Kiev claims that the Russians have set up a military headquarters near the village of Pobeda, around 50km southeast of the rebel held-city of Donetsk.

    The incursion, which comes after several weeks of successful Ukrainian pushes deep into the last rebel strongholds, has prompted Ukraine to call on NATO for help.

    Security spokesman Andriy Lysenko said the "tactical battalion" had dug in around the village, while five armoured personnel carriers and a truck had also been spotted entering the town of Amvrosiyivka, 25km northeast of Pobeda.

    The incursion appears to have turned the tables back in the rebels’ favour, with insurgent fighters capturing large swathes of land from retreating government forces, according to reporters on the ground.

    A Ukrainian volunteer commander posted on Facebook that government forces were surrounded in the key transport hub of Ilovaysk and reinforcements were desperately needed.

    Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk has called on NATO to intervene and has said he will request assistance when the alliance holds a summit in Wales next week.

    Russia, which has always denied helping the insurgents, has not acknowledged the offensive, which has been condemned by world leaders.

    “These incursions indicate a Russian-directed counteroffensive is likely underway,” US State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters at the department’s daily briefing in Washington.

    Ms Psaki has also criticized what she called the Russian government’s “unwillingness to tell the truth” that its military had sent soldiers inside Ukraine territory, the New York Times has reported.

    Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk said NATO and Polish intelligence have evidence of regular Russian army units operating in Ukraine.

    Between mid-July to mid-August, at least 1200 people have been killed in the region - more than double the total casualties in the conflict since it began in April, according to a report by UN rights monitors to be released last week.

    The death toll does not count the 298 killed in the July 17 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.

    NATO diplomats have also claimed a new Russian anti-aircraft missile system had been detected in a rebel-held area.

    The SA-22 air defence system, which has a range of up to 20km, was "now in the zone", said an official, adding that Russian support of the rebels had become "more open" recently.

    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the Kremlin was "not interested in breaking up" Ukraine.

    The latest incidents come after the Ukranian militatry captured several Russian soldiers who claimed to have accidently wandered over the border.

    Moscow admitted some of its troops ended up on Ukrainian soil after Kiev revealled it had captured 10 Russian paratroopers 20km away from the border.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin said the soldiers had been "patrolling the border”.
    Source

    As a side note, I'm kinda surprised at how much sabre rattling coming out of Canada right now.
    Last edited by Wraith; 08-28-2014 at 10:05 PM.

  2. #2
    I don't think it's a full-scale invasion yet. Russia keeps on ramping up its involvement just enough to keep the Ukrainians from winning. Russia doesn't think it necessary to send in 20-40k troops yet.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  3. #3
    No, not a full scale invasion. It sounds like they've only sent in ~1,000 troops. But that still counts as an invasion. I do agree with you that they're probably trying to commit the minimum amount of forces necessary to keep the Ukrainians from winning their war. They previously thought that just materiel aid was enough, and now that we can tell that it wasn't, they're sending some men over. They'll probably just increase their numbers if Ukraine keeps getting victories.

  4. #4
    They already had thousands of troops in Ukraine. The difference is that they're now not integrated into the rebel movement and aren't just standing on the Ukrainian side of the border shooting at Ukrainians.

    I actually wonder if Russia is taking a page out of terrorists' playbook, where they're increasing their involvement just enough to give Ukraine some hope of victory, which leads Ukraine to use inaccurate but lethal weapons on the ethnic Russian areas in which the rebels/Russian troops are in action. This generates extra hostility for Ukraine from those ethnic Russians, which would make them far more likely to welcome Russia as their savior at some point in the future. Putin probably realized that simply attacking and annexing the area would lead to popular backlash in those areas. Now that's much less the case.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  5. #5
    I have a feeling your right. What's the thing about the frog in the pot of boiling water?

  6. #6
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    This argument of Putin that the Russian soldiers are just "on holiday": Aren't there some kind of international rules about soldiers on foreign soil?
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  7. #7
    It would be a more credible argument if those soldiers "on holiday" didn't have the most advanced Russian arms with them (including the most modern air defense systems).
    Hope is the denial of reality

  8. #8
    Self propelled artillery needs holidays too.

  9. #9
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Nice. Putin just threatened Barroso that he could conquer Kiev in two weeks if he wanted...
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  10. #10
    Russia conquered Afghanistan about that fast as well...
    Hope is the denial of reality

  11. #11
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Chechnia was also quite a fast one. Twice!
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  12. #12
    I'm starting to wonder if he's starting to buy his own lies...

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/3...n-starobesheve

    If this story is confirmed, then we might as well put Russia on the same level as ISIS.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  13. #13
    Senior Member Flixy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I'm starting to wonder if he's starting to buy his own lies...

    http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/3...n-starobesheve

    If this story is confirmed, then we might as well put Russia on the same level as ISIS.
    To be honest, that's not exactly an unbiased news source.
    Keep on keepin' the beat alive!

  14. #14
    I know. That's why I'm waiting for verification.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  15. #15

  16. #16
    Seems like the right time to me.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  17. #17
    Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are feared to have been massacred by pro-Russian forces who allegedly reneged on a deal to allow them to retreat.

    Soldiers loyal to Kiev had been attempting to pull out of a besieged town 22 miles east of Donetsk.

    Bodies were said to be littering an agreed retreat route where dozens of prisoners were taken by rebels.

    Lt Col Nikolai Gordienko, of the Ukrainian National Guard, said: “They were given the corridor to exit and they were shot.
    "It is a violation of international conventions.”

    Ukrainian volunteer battalions said soldiers had been waving white flags when they were fired on from all sides as they left Ilovaisk.
    Perhaps not the best source

  18. #18
    I've read that elsewhere. Seems pretty consistent with rebel and Russian actions.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  19. #19
    Senior Member
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    I've read that elsewhere. Seems pretty consistent with rebel and Russian actions.
    Well, this sure shatters the fantasy of war in Europe not being possible any longer. I wonder if the Western Europeans will be able to find an actual answer to this. I think we should also carefully examine some of our so-called allies. Hungary comes to mind.
    Congratulations America

  20. #20
    I agree. We'll see who our real allies are now.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  21. #21
    President Vladimir Putin has said Kazakhstan's history of independent statehood is scant and its people's desire for closer ties with Russia is profound — a rhetoric reminiscent of Moscow's stance on Ukraine — and inhabitants of Kazakhstan are worried.
    Source

    Well, I guess we know where Russia's going next.

  22. #22
    Putin's not even trying anymore. Why not just threaten to nuke anyone who resists (and I know he already implied as much a few days ago)?
    Hope is the denial of reality

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loki View Post
    Putin's not even trying anymore. Why not just threaten to nuke anyone who resists (and I know he already implied as much a few days ago)?
    Interesting though isn't it? Not so long ago everybody was convinced nucleair arms wouldn't get into the equation.
    Congratulations America

  24. #24
    I suppose that wasn't meant to be literal.
    "Wer Visionen hat, sollte zum Arzt gehen." - Helmut Schmidt

  25. #25

  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Wraith View Post
    The Ukrainian defense minister said 100 troops have been killed and the rest are still surrounded.
    Hope is the denial of reality

  27. #27
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    Seems like France has decided to drop its insistence on delivering two warships to Russia. I am really curious about the sanctions we're going to see later this week, it must be something spectacular.
    Congratulations America

  28. #28
    Russian General calls for preemptive nuclear strike doctrine against NATO

    Russia threatens Ukraine with nuclear attack through backchannels

    BBC forgets that NATO is an acronym

    This is nice, in a way. I was starting to feel old as I talked to more and more people who couldn't remember the cold war. Now everyone has a chance to remember it, and I won't feel like such a relic!
    Last edited by Wraith; 09-04-2014 at 08:36 PM.

  29. #29
    Let sleeping tigers lie Khendraja'aro's Avatar
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    Um, Wraith, your second link is from 2008.
    When the stars threw down their spears
    And watered heaven with their tears:
    Did he smile his work to see?
    Did he who made the lamb make thee?

  30. #30
    Bah, was searching for the doctrine one, found that, and thought it was weird that I hadn't heard of it when it was only apparently two weeks old.

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